3954 Willow Glen Dr · Pace, FL 32571

$269,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,503 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 67 Days on market

Built 2013 6,098 sqft lot Est $281k · at est. $16/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 Bedroom/2 Bath/1 car garage located in the Willow Glen S/D in Pace! Wood look vinyl flooring throughout. Open kitchen with stainless appliances and room for an eat in kitchen. Combination Living room/formal dining room. Tray ceilings in the living room and Master bedroom gives a more open feel to the home. Newer home, great location. Very nice! Call for your appointment today!

Key facts

• Large eat-in kitchen
• Large bayed windows
• Large breakfast bar

Tags

• LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN
• SUNNY BREAKFAST ROOM
• LARGE BAYED WINDOWS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE BREAKFAST BAR
• SUPER SIZED DINING LIVING ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: County-maintained road access
• HOA & community: HOA present with an annual fee of $186 (fee covers association)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 covered garage space; total 1 parking space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Copper wiring
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Not attached to another property; Ridge vent (energy efficient feature)
• Construction: Frame construction; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built as one level
• Exterior features: Privacy fencing; Interior lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Additional bedrooms on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Double-pane windows with blinds and shutters
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-56 ($-673/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.4% in Pace — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#475 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: S. S. Dixon Intermediate School (math 73% / reading 67%, grade A-, #345 of 2,144 statewide, top 17%, 920 students, 40% FRL); Thomas L Sims Middle School (math 77% / reading 65%, grade A, #59 of 571 statewide, top 11%, 1,098 students, 34% FRL); Pace High School (math 63% / reading 62%, grade B-, #93 of 667 statewide, top 14%, 2,240 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 674 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $175k; list at $270k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,048 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.89%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $281,061
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5797 Corkscrew Ct	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,486 (-1%)	1mo	$260,000	$175	92
5800 Glenby Ct	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,483 (-1%)	9mo	$258,700	$174	88
3952 Willow Glen Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-7%)	2mo	$259,900	$187	86
5960 Palermo Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,521 (+1%)	9mo	$289,900	$191	83
3966 Willow Glen Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,398 (-7%)	10mo	$279,000	$200	78
5939 Jameson Crk	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,628 (+8%)	9mo	$251,000	$154	63
4100 Berry Cir	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,628 (+8%)	10mo	$300,000	$184	55
3951 Tuscany Way	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,690 (+12%)	21mo	$350,000	$207	55
5946 Greenfield St	0.47mi	3/3.0	1,687 (+12%)	1mo	$325,000	$193	53
5685 Todd St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,624 (+8%)	18mo	$472,000	$291	51
3849 Luther Fowler Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,602 (+7%)	9mo	$280,000	$175	47
3691 Gardenview St	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-11%)	11mo	$220,000	$164	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-47,944
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-48,940
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32571

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 674
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,170 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$227 /mo · $2,723/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $-56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,241

Max offer price $259,989

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $97	-5% $20	+0% $-56	+5% $-132	+10% $-209
Rent	-10% $-228	-5% $-142	+0% $-56	+5% $30	+10% $115
Rate	-1.0pp $80	-0.5pp $13	base $-56	+0.5pp $-126	+1.0pp $-197

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3927 Tuscany Way Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1850	$2,075	$1.12	25d	1	0.06mi
5849 Danbury Blvd Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1736	$2,100	$1.21	25d	1	0.66mi
5857 Danbury Blvd Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1658	$2,145	$1.29	15d	1	0.68mi
6169 Autumn Pines Cir Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1577	$1,895	$1.20	15d	1	0.71mi
5768 Conley Ct Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	2017	$2,100	$1.04	15d	1	0.71mi
3614 Hawks Landing Cir Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1953	$2,100	$1.08	25d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $16 · $192/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $269,900 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,900 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,900 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,900 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,900 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $269,900 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $269,900 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,900 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,900 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,900 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $269,900 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,900 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,900 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,900 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,900 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,900 Active 45 DOM
17. 2026-05-23
    price $269,900
18. 2026-04-15
    listed $279,000 Active
19. 2019-08-09
    soldstatus $175,000
20. 2019-08-02
    soldstatus $175,000 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    3 Bedroom/2 Bath/1 car garage located in the Willow Glen S/D in Pace! Wood look vinyl flooring throughout. Open kitchen with stainless appliances and room for an eat in kitchen. Combination Living room/formal dining room. Tray ceilings in the living room and Master bedroom gives a more open feel to the home. Newer home, great location. Very nice! Call for your appointment today!

21. 2019-05-03
    listed $174,500 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    3 Bedroom/2 Bath/1 car garage located in the Willow Glen S/D in Pace! Wood look vinyl flooring throughout. Open kitchen with stainless appliances and room for an eat in kitchen. Combination Living room/formal dining room. Tray ceilings in the living room and Master bedroom gives a more open feel to the home. Newer home, great location. Very nice! Call for your appointment today!

22. 2015-11-18
    historical
23. 2015-10-13
    listed $160,000
24. 2014-01-14
    soldstatus $138,536
25. 2013-05-06
    listed $136,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,723 · $227/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,723 · $227/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 8 d/yr ≥106°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,046
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$2,723
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,084
• − Management: −$2,084
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$5,357
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,286
• After-tax cash flow: $612/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pace

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #475
• US rank: #8593

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• City population: 42,171
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,171
• Household income: $87,617
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 301.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.39%
• Current HPI: 290.2953
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.72%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+97.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $269,900 PARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $279,000 PARMLS
• 2019-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2019-08-02 Sold (MLS) $175,000 PARMLS
• 2019-05-03 Listed $174,500 PARMLS
• 2015-11-18 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2015-10-13 Listed $160,000 PARMLS
• 2014-01-14 Sold (MLS) $138,536 PARMLS
• 2013-05-06 Listed $136,900 PARMLS

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,723 · +45.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.