13612 N Pomelo Rd · Santa Rosa, TX 78593

$160,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily · 163 Days on market

Built 1984 Fair condition 1.22 ac lot $143/sqft · 46% above area Est $110k · 46% over ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 2-bedroom, 1.5 -bath home in Santa Rosa, nestled on 1.22 acres at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac. Enjoy privacy, a 2-car rear entry carport, and an extra port for parking or projects. Surrounded by natural beauty, this peaceful retreat is perfect as a full-time residence or weekend getaway.

Key facts

• Quiet cul-de-sac
• 1.22 acre lot
• Built 1984

Tags

• 2 CAR REAR ENTRY CARPORT
• EXTRA PORT FOR PARKING
• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $50 ($604/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (8.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#774 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Santa Rosa ISD (suburban): math 17% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #760 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Elma E Barrera El (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 402 students, 90% FRL); Jo Nelson Middle (math 13% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,378 of 1,662 statewide, top 83%, 224 students, 86% FRL); Santa Rosa H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 289 students, 86% FRL).
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (5.8% local appreciation)).
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (5.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.35%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $109,552
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: 46.05%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.83% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $47,784
• Equity at exit: $98,841

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.09×
• Total profit: $138,536
• Equity at exit: $177,758

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78593

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,463 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,400/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,400

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $161	-5% $106	+0% $50	+5% $-5	+10% $-60
Rent	-10% $-65	-5% $-8	+0% $50	+5% $108	+10% $166
Rate	-1.0pp $131	-0.5pp $91	base $50	+0.5pp $9	+1.0pp $-33

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $160,000 Active 163 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 160 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 159 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 158 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 157 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 155 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $160,000 Active 152 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 151 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 150 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 149 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 145 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 144 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 143 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 142 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $160,000 Active 141 DOM
16. 2026-01-08
    listed $160,000 Active 299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    Charming 2-bedroom, 1.5 -bath home in Santa Rosa, nestled on 1.22 acres at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac. Enjoy privacy, a 2-car rear entry carport, and an extra port for parking or projects. Surrounded by natural beauty, this peaceful retreat is perfect as a full-time residence or weekend getaway.

17. 2025-10-03
    listed $160,000 Active
18. 2025-02-03
    listed $165,000 Active
19. 2024-08-29
    listed $165,000 Active
20. 2024-08-28
    price $165,000
21. 2024-07-24
    listed $175,000 Active
22. 2024-07-13
    listed $185,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,560
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,400
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,405
• − Management: −$1,405
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$2,067
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$496
• After-tax cash flow: $1,100/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This property requires significant repairs and updates to improve its condition and value. The exterior and interior need fresh paint, the flooring and appliances need replacing, and the bathrooms need updating. With these improvements, the property can be transformed into a move-in-ready home with increased resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior siding — Significant damage and exposure
• Major Roof — Metal panels are visibly damaged
• Major Flooring — Worn and in need of replacement
• Major Interior walls/paint — Worn wallpaper and peeling paint
• Major Bathrooms — Outdated fixtures and tiles
• Major Kitchen — Cluttered countertops and outdated appliances
• Major HVAC — Exposed unit and electrical wiring

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Resale Replace flooring — Improves living space and adds value
• Resale Paint interior walls — Freshens up the interior and adds value
• Resale Update bathrooms — Modernizes the space and adds value
• Resale Replace kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Significant damage and exposure	Major	$15,000–50,000
Roof · Metal panels are visibly damaged	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · Worn and in need of replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls/paint · Worn wallpaper and peeling paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathrooms · Outdated fixtures and tiles	Major	$15,000–50,000
Kitchen · Cluttered countertops and outdated appliances	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC · Exposed unit and electrical wiring	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$105,000–350,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Resale Replace flooring — Improves living space and adds value ↑
• Resale Paint interior walls — Freshens up the interior and adds value ↑
• Resale Update bathrooms — Modernizes the space and adds value ↑
• Resale Replace kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $27,649
• Composite: 18.63/100
• National rank: #8896
• State rank: #760 of 826 in TX

Livability — Santa Rosa

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #774
• US rank: #14097

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,030

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 39% Native American 4% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 95%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 45% English-only · Spanish 55%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.83%
• Current HPI: 210.4254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-08 Listed $160,000 RGVMLS
• 2025-10-03 Listed $160,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-02-03 Listed $165,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-08-29 Listed $165,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-08-28 Price Changed $165,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-07-24 Listed $175,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-07-13 Listed $185,000 MCALLENMLS