612 River Creek Rd · Chesapeake, VA 23320

$300,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,278 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1955 Est $337k · 11% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch in the desirable Crestwood Manor area of Chesapeake! This move-in readyhome features a brand-new gas pack HVAC unit, new energy-efficient windows, and a stunning new kitchen with moderncabinetry, countertops, and stainless-steel appliances. Enjoy newer LVP flooring and cozy carpet throughout thissingle-level layout designed for easy living. The spacious backyard offers privacy with a wooded tree line leading to apeaceful creek—good for relaxing or entertaining. Close to shopping, dining, and interstate access, this home combinescomfort, style, and location in one package.

Key facts

• New kitchen
• Spacious backyard
• Updated ranch

Tags

• UPDATED RANCH
• NEW GAS PACK HVAC UNIT
• NEW ENERGY EFFICIENT WINDOWS
• NEW KITCHEN
• NEWER LVP FLOORING
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA fees

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Driveway parking spaces
• Utilities: City/County water; City/County sewer; Electric water heater
• Home design: Detached property; Bungalow / Traditional style; Single-story
• Construction: Crawl foundation; Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Back yard fenced with chain link fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Bedroom and full bathroom on first floor; 7 total rooms (includes bedroom count within rooms)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Natural gas heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; Scuttle access
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; 220 V electric

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4 ($47/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.8% in Chesapeake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#236 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living C-, amenities F.
• Chesapeake City Public School District (suburban): math 58% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #31 of 131 in VA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: B.M. Williams Primary (897 students, 91% FRL); Great Bridge High (math 60% / reading 87%, grade B+, #124 of 319 statewide, top 40%, 1,624 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 28% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.8%/yr); 286 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 597 units permitted in Chesapeake city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesapeake County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $200k; list at $300k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $238,076 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.06%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $337,392
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
565 River Creek Rd	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,264 (-1%)	9mo	$255,000	$202	85
1333 Great Bridge Blvd	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,317 (+3%)	1mo	$265,000	$201	83
612 River Creek Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,157 (-10%)	1mo	$306,000	$264	80
622 Marcus St	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,130 (-12%)	1mo	$320,000	$283	72
1225 Keats Sta	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-2%)	7mo	$330,000	$264	69
725 Potter Rd	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+10%)	0mo	$352,000	$251	64
5105 Neal St	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,100 (-14%)	9mo	$310,000	$282	61
108 Grant St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-4%)	10mo	$302,000	$245	56
852 Mains Creek Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+5%)	8mo	$331,000	$246	47
813 Mullen Rd Unit A	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,100 (-14%)	1mo	$315,000	$286	42
5311 Libertyville Rd	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,092 (-15%)	4mo	$309,900	$284	42
421 Mccosh Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,467 (+15%)	10mo	$355,000	$242	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-36,448
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $22,609
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23320

• Rents YoY: 7.8%
• Active inventory: 286
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,381 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$179 /mo · $2,144/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$500
• Net cashflow: $4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,376

Max offer price $300,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $174	-5% $89	+0% $4	+5% $-81	+10% $-166
Rent	-10% $-184	-5% $-90	+0% $4	+5% $98	+10% $192
Rate	-1.0pp $155	-0.5pp $80	base $4	+0.5pp $-74	+1.0pp $-153

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1416 Cole Dr Chesapeake, VA	3.0	2.0	1732	$2,600	$1.50	25d	1	0.22mi
617 Lord Nelson Ct Chesapeake, VA	3.0	2.5	1840	$2,595	$1.41	5d	1	0.82mi
601 Lord Byron Ct Chesapeake, VA	3.0	2.5	1840	$2,545	$1.38	16d	1	0.87mi
103 Duffield Pl Chesapeake, VA	3.0	2.0	1372	$2,200	$1.60	25d	1	0.92mi
721 Albertine Ct Chesapeake, VA	3.0	2.5	1750	$2,795	$1.60	18d	1	0.94mi
906 Wickford Dr Chesapeake, VA	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,950	$1.50	18d	1	1.03mi
511 Marc Smiley Rd Chesapeake, VA	2.0	2.5	1450	$2,350	$1.62	3d	1	1.05mi
606 Muddy Creek Rd Chesapeake, VA	3.0	2.5	1720	$2,600	$1.51	25d	1	1.18mi
824 Huntly Dr Chesapeake, VA	3.0	1.5	1268	$1,750	$1.38	17d	1	1.19mi
208 Crosswinds Dr Unit 00 217104 Chesapeake, VA	2.0	2.0	971	$1,910	$1.97	4d	1	1.29mi
208 Crosswinds Dr Chesapeake, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	819	$1,910	$2.33	8d	2	1.32mi
1212 Triple Crown Cir Chesapeake, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	965	$2,180	$2.26	3d	24	1.34mi
1240 Basswood Ct Chesapeake, VA	3.0	1.5	1296	$1,925	$1.49	16d	1	1.37mi
1222 Corkwood Cir Chesapeake, VA	3.0	2.5	1185	$2,200	$1.86	25d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-05-11
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-26
   status Active
4. 2026-04-21
   historical Active Under Contract
5. 2026-04-13
   price $300,000
6. 2026-04-07
   listed $317,000 Active
7. 2026-03-20
   status Active
8. 2026-03-20
   historical
9. 2026-03-17
   historical Active Under Contract
10. 2026-03-06
    price $315,000
11. 2026-02-12
    status Active
12. 2026-02-08
    historical Active Under Contract
13. 2026-01-23
    listed $317,000 Active
14. 2025-12-19
    historical
15. 2025-11-19
    status Active
16. 2025-11-12
    historical Active Under Contract
17. 2025-11-04
    price $287,000
18. 2025-10-20
    listed $290,000 Active
19. 2025-09-05
    soldstatus $200,000
20. 1976-07-21
    soldstatus $21,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,144 · $179/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,460 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: +$316/yr (+$26/mo · 14.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,569
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$2,144
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,286
• − Management: −$2,286
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$5,178
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,243
• After-tax cash flow: $1,289/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesapeake City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100810
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 74% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $69,356
• Composite: 57.84/100
• National rank: #1047
• State rank: #31 of 131 in VA

Livability — Chesapeake

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #236
• US rank: #7942

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chesapeake, VA
• County: Chesapeake City · 253,091 people
• City population: 253,091
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 59,108
• Household income: $84,305
• Rent vs Own: 35.5% rent · 64.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2714.0

Population outlook (Chesapeake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 263,804 people
• By 2030: 276,798 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 299,906 · +13.7%
• By 2050: 318,284 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 362,137 · +37.3%
• By 2100: 372,225 · +41.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Black 29% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Tagalog/Filipino 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesapeake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.3% · R 47.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: 1.3pp · 2024: 3.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.8 2020: D+6.5 2016: R+1.3 2012: D+1.1 2008: D+1.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -241.43%
• Current HPI: 285.5792
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.78%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+1315.1% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — REINMLS
• 2026-05-11 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2026-04-26 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2026-04-21 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $300,000 REINMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $317,000 REINMLS
• 2026-03-20 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2026-03-17 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $315,000 REINMLS
• 2026-02-12 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2026-02-08 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $317,000 REINMLS
• 2025-12-19 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2025-11-19 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2025-11-12 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $287,000 REINMLS
• 2025-10-20 Listed $290,000 REINMLS
• 2025-09-05 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 1976-07-21 Sold (Public Records) $21,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,144 · +11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.