1507 Calm Way · Toms River, NJ 08755

$99,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 980 sqft · SingleFamily · 64 Days on market

Good condition $101/sqft · 73% below area $641/mo HOA · 24% of rent ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable 2 bedroom, 1.5 bath home in desirable Homestead Run 55+ community, freshly painted &pda updated w new flooring, new carpet, counters, vanities, & all new light fixtures. Approxi. 980 sq ft, this 14 x 70 home features central air, gas heat, in unit laundry w dryer included & newer appliances. Bright living space w a sun filled all season room. Updated bathrm w glass shower doors. Enjoy a private patio w barbecue area, low maintenance stone yard & storage shed. Water heater & HVAC system under warranty. Located on a corner cul de sac lot overlooking the lake w peaceful views & canoe access. Low monthly fee of $530. Amenities include a 30x50 salt water swimming pool (depth of 3-6ft) w a lifeguard on duty. Newly renovated game rm w pool/card tables, tv, darts & indoor shuffle board.

Key facts

• Pool
• Listed 64 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $99k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $683 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.4% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 262 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 24% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.43%
• DSCR: 2.44
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $363,586
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -72.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
342 Stuart Ave	0.29mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,036 (+6%)	10mo	$381,250	$368	62
123 Camino Roble	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	970 (-1%)	3mo	$150,000	$155	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $27,919
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.97×
• Total profit: $82,236
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08755

• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,626 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,485/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$641
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$551
• Net cashflow: $683

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,762

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2144 Lakewood Rd Toms River, NJ	1.0	1.0	750	$2,150	$2.87	7d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $641 · $7,692/yr
• Likely covers: watergaspool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,000 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-05-02
    price $99,000 828-char remark

    Show marketing remark (828 chars)

    Affordable 2 bedroom, 1.5 bath home in desirable Homestead Run 55+ community, freshly painted &pda updated w new flooring, new carpet, counters, vanities, & all new light fixtures. Approxi. 980 sq ft, this 14 x 70 home features central air, gas heat, in unit laundry w dryer included & newer appliances. Bright living space w a sun filled all season room. Updated bathrm w glass shower doors. Enjoy a private patio w barbecue area, low maintenance stone yard & storage shed. Water heater & HVAC system under warranty. Located on a corner cul de sac lot overlooking the lake w peaceful views & canoe access. Low monthly fee of $530. Amenities include a 30x50 salt water swimming pool (depth of 3-6ft) w a lifeguard on duty. Newly renovated game rm w pool/card tables, tv, darts & indoor shuffle board.

16. 2026-04-15
    listed $135,000 Active 828-char remark

    Show marketing remark (828 chars)

    Affordable 2 bedroom, 1.5 bath home in desirable Homestead Run 55+ community, freshly painted &pda updated w new flooring, new carpet, counters, vanities, & all new light fixtures. Approxi. 980 sq ft, this 14 x 70 home features central air, gas heat, in unit laundry w dryer included & newer appliances. Bright living space w a sun filled all season room. Updated bathrm w glass shower doors. Enjoy a private patio w barbecue area, low maintenance stone yard & storage shed. Water heater & HVAC system under warranty. Located on a corner cul de sac lot overlooking the lake w peaceful views & canoe access. Low monthly fee of $530. Amenities include a 30x50 salt water swimming pool (depth of 3-6ft) w a lifeguard on duty. Newly renovated game rm w pool/card tables, tv, darts & indoor shuffle board.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,510
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,485
• − Insurance: −$1,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,521
• − Management: −$2,521
• − HOA: −$7,692
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $7,573
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,818
• After-tax cash flow: $6,376/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home in Homestead Run 55+ community is in good condition with recent updates and is move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both exterior paint — improves curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both exterior paint — improves curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toms River Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3416230
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $72,370
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6602
• State rank: #316 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toms River, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,670
• Household income: $87,575
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 529.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.51%
• Current HPI: 303.2721
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-26.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $99,000 MOMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $135,000 MOMLS