12819 Ivy Creek Ct · Barrett, TX 77532

$252,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,922 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $304k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

On the first floor of this spacious two-story home is a convenient and modern layout seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining room and family room together. In a private corner is the tranquil owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Upstairs is a sprawling central game room made for gatherings of all sizes, along with three secondary bedrooms to provide sleeping accommodations to family members and guests.

Key facts

• Central game room
• Attached bathroom
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OWNER'S SUITE
• ATTACHED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• CENTRAL GAME ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $252,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home (Littleton plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,922

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Littleton plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $253k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-159/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (0.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (9.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (9.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,335 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Crosby H S (math 44% / reading 45%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,937 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,048 (9.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.90%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $303,676
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12746 Oat Grass Dr	0.25mi	4/2.5	1,922 (0%)	2mo	$302,990	$158	87
12734 Oat Grass Dr	0.25mi	4/2.5	1,922 (0%)	2mo	$307,990	$160	87
1338 Sea Oats Dr	0.29mi	4/2.5	1,922 (0%)	2mo	$306,990	$160	85
12919 Dianna Lee Dr	0.31mi	4/2.5	1,979 (+3%)	1mo	$280,490	$142	80
12942 Dianna Lee Ln	0.30mi	4/2.5	1,979 (+3%)	2mo	$285,990	$145	80
13007 Dianna Lee Ln	0.31mi	4/2.5	1,979 (+3%)	1mo	$282,990	$143	80
13046 Dianna Lee Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,979 (+3%)	1mo	$233,490	$118	77
1223 Bonnerjee Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,859 (-3%)	1mo	$292,990	$158	72
1226 Bonnerjee Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (-1%)	1mo	$301,990	$159	72
1218 Bonnerjee Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (-1%)	1mo	$272,040	$143	71
12742 Oat Grass Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,676 (-13%)	2mo	$286,990	$171	64
1339 Sea Oats Dr	0.29mi	4/3.0	2,157 (+12%)	1mo	$316,990	$147	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-45,199
• Equity at exit: $37,722

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-53,812
• Equity at exit: $21,874

Cash invested: $70,837 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,280 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,327
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$316 /mo · $3,795/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $-13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,297

Max offer price $251,075

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $162	-5% $74	+0% $-13	+5% $-101	+10% $-188
Rent	-10% $-193	-5% $-103	+0% $-13	+5% $77	+10% $167
Rate	-1.0pp $114	-0.5pp $51	base $-13	+0.5pp $-79	+1.0pp $-145

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,248
• Closing costs: $7,590
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,366
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,171
• − Property taxes: −$3,795
• − Insurance: −$2,062
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,189
• − Management: −$2,189
• − Depreciation: −$7,360
• Taxable loss: −$4,401
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,056
• After-tax cash flow: $897/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This spacious two-story home features a modern and well-maintained interior with a good condition exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for minor cosmetic upgrades to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to both buyers and renters.
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting buyers and renters.
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort, attracting buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to both buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort, attracting buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Barrett

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1335
• US rank: #22991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Barrett, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B