3222 Nolan Ave · Bay City, TX 77414

$145,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 919 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1940 6,011 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move-in ready home located on a quiet street in Nolan. This recently renovated property features new high-efficiency split A/C - heating units, fresh interior and exterior paint, and an updated, open-concept layout. The kitchen has been opened to the living room, creating a spacious and inviting area for entertaining. This large 3-bedroom, 2-bath home includes an additional oversized primary bedroom overlooking a beautiful wooded backyard, offering wonderful privacy. Bathroom feature updated tile work, adding a fresh, modern touch and an Excellent oversized indoor laundry room just added. A great opportunity for comfortable living in a peaceful setting.

Key facts

• Wooded backyard
• Recently renovated
• Updated tile work

Tags

• RECENTLY RENOVATED
• HIGH-EFFICIENCY SPLIT A/C
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• OVERSIZED PRIMARY BEDROOM
• WOODED BACKYARD
• UPDATED TILE WORK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot dimensions approximately 50 x 120 (about 0.138 acre); Asphalt road frontage; Lot is wooded and in a subdivision
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces east
• Construction: Built in 1940; Wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Porch; Private yard; Fence; Storage; Shed(s)

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the first floor)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Window unit heating; Central air conditioning; Electric cooling; Window unit cooling
• Interior features: Window treatments; Programmable thermostat; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2 ($-21/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $114k (21.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.4% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#311 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, commute F, employment F.
• Bay City ISD (town): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #604 of 826 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Roberts El (513 students, 82% FRL); Bay City H S (math 35% / reading 39%, grade F, #897 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 1,031 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 622 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 153 units permitted in Matagorda County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,210 (21.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $77,196
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2820 Moore Ave	0.30mi	2/1.0 (-1)	894 (-3%)	2mo	$75,000	$84	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-23,326
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-19,296
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77414

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 622
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,142 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $998/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $-2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,144

Max offer price $144,696

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $80	-5% $39	+0% $-2	+5% $-43	+10% $-84
Rent	-10% $-92	-5% $-47	+0% $-2	+5% $43	+10% $89
Rate	-1.0pp $71	-0.5pp $35	base $-2	+0.5pp $-39	+1.0pp $-78

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1401 Thompson Dr Bay City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	920	$1,250	$1.36	44d	4	0.60mi
1700 Baywood Dr Bay City, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	805	$1,233	$1.53	44d	57	0.75mi
2604 Avenue K Bay City, TX	2.0	2.0	963	$1,415	$1.47	44d	1	0.94mi
1901 Palm Village Blvd Bay City, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	955	$849	$0.89	44d	1	1.05mi
2206 Avenue L Unit L Bay City, TX	2.0	1.0	825	$1,075	$1.30	44d	1	1.20mi
5001 Avenue F Bay City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1072	$1,028	$0.96	44d	15	1.37mi
1909 Hamman Rd Bay City, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	728	$1,009	$1.39	44d	28	1.50mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $145,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $145,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $145,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $145,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    remarks 661-char remark
14. 2026-06-02
    listed $145,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $998 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,654 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,655/yr (+$138/mo · 165.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,705
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$998
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,096
• − Management: −$1,096
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$2,551
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$612
• After-tax cash flow: $592/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,285
• Composite: 26.4/100
• National rank: #7229
• State rank: #604 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #311
• US rank: #7004

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, TX
• County: Matagorda County · 24,334 people
• City population: 24,334
• Metro: Bay City, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,334
• Household income: $59,128
• Rent vs Own: 41.6% rent · 58.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1228.0

Population outlook (Matagorda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,148 people
• By 2030: 37,082 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 36,987 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 36,934 · -0.6%
• By 2075: 37,178 · +0.1%
• By 2100: 35,184 · -5.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 39% Black 13% Two or more races 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matagorda

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.5) · D 24.3% · R 74.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.1pp toward R · 2008: -27.4pp · 2024: -50.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.5 2020: R+44.5 2016: R+40.7 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.31%
• Current HPI: 168.9985
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• Metro: Bay City, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $145,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $998 · -11.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.