3200 Smeltzer Rd Lot 10 · Marion, OH 43302

$50,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,106 sqft · Manufactured public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1989 $45/sqft · 36% below area Est $85k · 41% under $435/mo HOA · 35% of rent ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home has many updates such as metal roof, vinyl siding, windows, vinyl plank flooring in living room and dining room. Range, refrigerator, dishwasher, washer, dryer and water softener convey. Must be approved by park management,

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Vinyl siding
• Vinyl plank flooring

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• VINYL SIDING
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $245 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $47k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 6.9% in Marion — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#704 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D+, amenities F.
• Pleasant Local (rural): math 49% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #399 of 656 in OH (top 61%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 210 active listings in the ZIP; 53 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 35% of rent.

Recommended offer $47,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.99%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $85,116
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: -41.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $7,754
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $27,891
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 43302

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,245 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$21 /mo · $250/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$435
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $935

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $273	-5% $259	+0% $245	+5% $231	+10% $217
Rent	-10% $146	-5% $196	+0% $245	+5% $294	+10% $343
Rate	-1.0pp $270	-0.5pp $258	base $245	+0.5pp $232	+1.0pp $219

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $435 · $5,220/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $50,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $50,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $50,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $50,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $50,000 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $50,000 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $50,000 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $50,000 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $50,000 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $50,000 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $50,000 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $50,000 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 64 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $50,000 Active 63 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    historical Contingent 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    Home has many updates such as metal roof, vinyl siding, windows, vinyl plank flooring in living room and dining room. Range, refrigerator, dishwasher, washer, dryer and water softener convey. Must be approved by park management,

18. 2026-04-29
    price $50,000 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    Home has many updates such as metal roof, vinyl siding, windows, vinyl plank flooring in living room and dining room. Range, refrigerator, dishwasher, washer, dryer and water softener convey. Must be approved by park management,

19. 2026-03-28
    listed $65,000 Active 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    Home has many updates such as metal roof, vinyl siding, windows, vinyl plank flooring in living room and dining room. Range, refrigerator, dishwasher, washer, dryer and water softener convey. Must be approved by park management,

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $250 · $21/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $515 · $43/mo
• Expected delta: +$265/yr (+$22/mo · 106.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,943
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$250
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,195
• − Management: −$1,195
• − HOA: −$5,220
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $2,577
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$618
• After-tax cash flow: $2,320/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pleasant Local
• NCES district ID: 3904842
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $53,276
• Composite: 45.14/100
• National rank: #2681
• State rank: #399 of 656 in OH

Livability — Marion

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #704
• US rank: #12605

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 53,702 people
• City population: 53,702
• Metro: Marion, OH
• Population (ZIP): 53,702
• Household income: $55,057
• Rent vs Own: 36.6% rent · 63.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1554.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,078 people
• By 2030: 60,049 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 55,413 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 50,604 · -18.5%
• By 2075: 40,162 · -35.3%
• By 2100: 29,105 · -53.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 6% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.4) · D 28.9% · R 70.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.5pp toward R · 2008: -8.9pp · 2024: -41.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.4 2020: R+38.6 2016: R+34.4 2012: R+7.6 2008: R+8.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.52%
• Current HPI: 223.5344
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Marion, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

-23.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Contingent — CBRMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $50,000 CBRMLS
• 2026-03-28 Listed $65,000 CBRMLS