309 Maple St · New Home, TX 79381

$724,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,173 sqft · SingleFamily · 18 Days on market

Built 2026 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Stunning Edge Homes new construction (2026) featuring 4 bedrooms, 4 full bathrooms, and a highly desirable 3-car garage. This thoughtfully designed home offers an inviting open floorplan with high ceilings, abundant natural light, and stylish modern finishes throughout. The kitchen is the heart of the home with a convenient breakfast bar, spacious pantry, and seamless flow into the main living areas, ideal for entertaining and everyday living. The entry foyer makes a strong first impression with elegant design details, while recessed lighting and ceiling fans enhance comfort and functionality. The private primary suite includes a relaxing soaking tub, walk-in closet, and a spa-inspired ensu

Key facts

• Spacious pantry
• New construction
• Soaking tub

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• BREAKFAST BAR
• SPACIOUS PANTRY
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• SOAKING TUB

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; Driveway; 3-car garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Private sewer; Natural gas connected and available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected; Cable available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; New construction
• Construction: Brick and stone exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built as new construction
• Exterior features: Private yard; Covered patio; Patio; Fenced front and back yard (wood); Landscaped yard with front sprinklers; Cul-de-sac lot; City street frontage; Asphalt public-maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Four full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fans; Chandelier; Entrance foyer; High ceilings; Pantry; Recessed lighting; Smart thermostat; Soaking tub; Walk-in closets; Fireplace with gas insert, glass doors and gas starter
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups; Gas water heater

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $724k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-974 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $583k (19.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $510k (29.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $510k (29.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#343 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• New Home ISD (rural): math 71% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #16 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Lynn County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($713k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $510,000 (29.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.77%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $31,685
• Equity at exit: $332,405

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $192,040
• Equity at exit: $517,676

Cash invested: $202,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79381

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,100 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,797
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$905 /mo · $10,860/yr
• Insurance: −$302
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,071
• Net cashflow: $-974

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,333

Max offer price $583,003

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-474	-5% $-724	+0% $-974	+5% $-1,225	+10% $-1,475
Rent	-10% $-1,377	-5% $-1,176	+0% $-974	+5% $-773	+10% $-572
Rate	-1.0pp $-610	-0.5pp $-790	base $-974	+0.5pp $-1,162	+1.0pp $-1,353

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $181,000
• Closing costs: $21,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
309 Juniper St New Home, TX	4.0	3.0	2594	$5,100	$1.97	16d	1	0.14mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-23
   days on market $724,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-22
   days on market $724,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $724,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $724,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $724,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $724,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $724,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $724,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $724,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $724,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $724,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on marketlisting id $724,000 Active 1 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $724,000 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $724,000 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $724,000 Active 82 DOM
16. 2026-03-09
    listed $724,000 Active 1230-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $61,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$40,555
• − Property taxes: −$10,860
• − Insurance: −$3,620
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,896
• − Management: −$4,896
• − Depreciation: −$21,062
• Taxable loss: −$24,689
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,925
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,767/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Home ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832490
• Math proficiency: 71% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $57,372
• Composite: 60.5/100
• National rank: #845
• State rank: #16 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Home

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #343
• US rank: #7488

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 47
• Population (ZIP): 1,457

Population outlook (Lynn County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,360 people
• By 2030: 5,162 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 4,811 · -10.2%
• By 2050: 4,422 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 3,362 · -37.3%
• By 2100: 2,177 · -59.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (51%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 48% Two or more races 20%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Iranian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 22% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lynn

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.3) · D 14.4% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.3pp toward R · 2008: -40.0pp · 2024: -70.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.3 2020: R+62.1 2016: R+57.2 2012: R+49.3 2008: R+40.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.17%
• Current HPI: 125.9221
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $724,000 LARMLS