189 Mayflower Dr NW Lot 29 · Calabash, NC 28467

$368,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 205 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 9,583 sqft lot Garage $168/sqft · at area comps Est $374k · at est. $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Allston Park in Calabash, NC. Calling all golf lovers! Allston Park is located behind Meadowlands Golf Resort! Allston Park boasts large lots, many floorplans to fit your needs and a pool / cabana area sure to please! Centrally located to entertainment, shopping, famous Calabash restaurants and gorgeous Carolina beaches, this is sure to be your next home sweet home. The amenity area features a pool, restrooms, mail kiosk and parking. This home is under construction - Durham II B elevation - Two story home and walk in storage area on the second floor plus first floor complete with 3 bedrooms & 2 full baths plus a 2 car garage!

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• 3 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $369k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-482 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $299k (18.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (27.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $268k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#487 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jessie Mae Monroe Elementary (math 43% / reading 41%, grade F, #633 of 1,410 statewide, top 48%, 394 students, 99% FRL); Shallotte Middle (math 40% / reading 50%, grade D, #160 of 475 statewide, top 35%, 674 students, 100% FRL); West Brunswick High (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #281 of 535 statewide, top 53%, 1,526 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1083 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($325k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $267,535 (27.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.60%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $374,379
• List price: $368,900
• Delta: -1.46%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
656 Meadowbrook Ln NW	0.14mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,199 (-0%)	0mo	$435,900	$198	84
786 Night Lotus Dr Lot 43	0.13mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,251 (+2%)	2mo	$392,904	$175	79
262 Lot 4 Mayflower Dr	0.17mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,431 (+10%)	2mo	$371,900	$153	66
1091 Rosefield Way	0.58mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,250 (+2%)	0mo	$437,230	$194	64
1074 Lot 93 NW Rosefield Way	0.57mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,015 (-8%)	1mo	$324,990	$161	51
1074 Rosefield Way NW	0.58mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,015 (-8%)	1mo	$325,000	$161	51
1152 Forest Bend Dr NW	0.60mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,408 (+10%)	3mo	$389,900	$162	47
1129 Lot 110 NW Forest Bend Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,408 (+10%)	0mo	$365,000	$152	46
1129 Forest Bend Dr NW	0.66mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,408 (+10%)	0mo	$365,000	$152	46
1116 Forest Bend Dr NW	0.68mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,015 (-8%)	1mo	$366,230	$182	46
1116 Lot 106 NW Forest Bend Dr NW	0.69mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,015 (-8%)	1mo	$366,230	$182	46
9304 Honey Tree Ln NW #2	0.58mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,488 (+13%)	3mo	$415,000	$167	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-90,399
• Equity at exit: $55,004

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-117,957
• Equity at exit: $31,896

Cash invested: $103,292 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 27 active · 32 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.4 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $375,000 ($163/sqft)
• Median days on market: 103 d
• This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +4.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 28467

• Home prices YoY: -33.7%
• Active inventory: 1083
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,675 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,935
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$461 /mo · $5,534/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$562
• Net cashflow: $-482

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,285

Max offer price $299,174

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-227	-5% $-354	+0% $-482	+5% $-609	+10% $-737
Rent	-10% $-693	-5% $-588	+0% $-482	+5% $-376	+10% $-271
Rate	-1.0pp $-296	-0.5pp $-388	base $-482	+0.5pp $-577	+1.0pp $-675

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,225
• Closing costs: $11,067
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
570 Tullimore Ln NW Carolina Shores, NC	4.0	3.0	2587	$2,800	$1.08	154d	1	0.72mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Allston ParkZoning: R75
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $552 (about $46/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage3 garage spaces (3 total parking spaces)Concrete drivewayGarage door opener
• Utilities: Public waterSewer available and connectedWater available and connected
• Home design: Single-family residenceTwo storiesEntry level is 1New construction
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame constructionShingle roofSlab foundationBuilt as new construction
• Exterior features: Front porchPool in the communityPaved road accessHas a viewPets allowed

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric ovenDishwasherMicrowave
• Bedrooms: Master downstairs
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathroomsAccessible full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pumpElectric heatingForced air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Master suite on the main levelWalk-in closetsTray ceilingsHigh ceilingsCeiling fansPantryUnfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry roomElectric water heater

HOA detail $46/mo · $552/yr

• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $368,900 Active 205 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $368,900 Active 204 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $368,900 Active 203 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $368,900 Active 202 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $368,900 Active 201 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $368,900 Active 199 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $368,900 Active 198 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $368,900 Active 197 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $368,900 Active 196 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $368,900 Active 195 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $368,900 Active 194 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $368,900 Active 193 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $368,900 Active 192 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $368,900 Active 191 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $368,900 Active 190 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $368,900 Active 189 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $368,900 Active 188 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $368,900 Active 187 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $368,900 Active 186 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $368,900 Active 185 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $368,900 Active 184 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $368,900 Active 183 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $368,900 Active 182 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $368,900 Active 181 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $368,900 Active 180 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    pricedays on market $368,900 Active 179 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $379,900 Active 178 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $379,900 Active 177 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $379,900 Active 176 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $379,900 Active 175 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $379,900 Active 174 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $379,900 Active 173 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $379,900 Active 172 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $379,900 Active 171 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $379,900 Active 170 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $379,900 Active 169 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $379,900 Active 168 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $379,900 Active 167 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $379,900 Active 166 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $379,900 Active 165 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $379,900 Active 164 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $379,900 Active 163 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $379,900 Active 161 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $379,900 Active 160 DOM
45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $379,900 Active 159 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $379,900 Active 158 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $379,900 Active 157 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $379,900 Active 156 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $379,900 Active 155 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $379,900 Active 154 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,104
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,664
• − Property taxes: −$5,534
• − Insurance: −$1,844
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,568
• − Management: −$2,568
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$10,732
• Taxable loss: −$12,358
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,966
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,816/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and has a good resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value ↑
• Resale Replace window treatments — Fresh window treatments can improve the home's appearance and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase convenience and energy efficiency, making the home more attractive to buyers and renters ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 47/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Jessie Mae Monroe Elementary F NC #633/1,410 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Shallotte Middle D NC #160/475 Nat'l #4,622/14,009 High West Brunswick High C- NC #281/535 Nat'l #4,893/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Calabash

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #487
• US rank: #17866

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brunswick County · 152,111 people
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 13,313
• Household income: $75,341
• Rent vs Own: 10.4% rent · 89.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 4% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.90%
• Current HPI: 133.7186
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Allston ParkZoning: R75
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $552 (about $46/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage3 garage spaces (3 total parking spaces)Concrete drivewayGarage door opener
• Utilities: Public waterSewer available and connectedWater available and connected
• Home design: Single-family residenceTwo storiesEntry level is 1New construction
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame constructionShingle roofSlab foundationBuilt as new construction
• Exterior features: Front porchPool in the communityPaved road accessHas a viewPets allowed

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric ovenDishwasherMicrowave
• Bedrooms: Master downstairs
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathroomsAccessible full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pumpElectric heatingForced air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Master suite on the main levelWalk-in closetsTray ceilingsHigh ceilingsCeiling fansPantryUnfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry roomElectric water heater

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $386,900 Hive MLS