8537 Horizon Ln · Hudson, FL 34667

$119,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,468 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 157 Days on market

Built 1979 6,400 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome Home! This updated property in Sea Pines is ready to be yours! Home features NEW windows, NEW exterior doors/sliders, updated lighting, two full modern baths, and ceramic tile throughout. Exterior features an enclosed rear porch, outdoor shower and a large concrete slab. Backyard looks onto a beautiful conservation area. Sip your morning coffee while turkey and deer graze in your backyard! Home has been well cared for and is ready for immediate occupancy. Call today to schedule your private showing to see the true value of this home!

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Open floor plan
• Generous lot

Tags

• FLORIDA ROOM
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS YARD
• GENEROUS LOT
• LARGE LANAI
• NEWER WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $347 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 3.4% in Hudson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#289 in FL, #4,856 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hudson Primary Academy (math 29% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 647 students, 90% FRL); Hudson High School (math 45% / reading 40%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,387 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 48% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 790 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,164/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 946% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.63%
• DSCR: 2.23
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $243,688
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8523 Lafitte Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,434 (-2%)	5mo	$131,000	$91	81
8637 Summer Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,428 (-3%)	5mo	$236,000	$165	77
16034 Pine Ridge Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,478 (+1%)	6mo	$244,900	$166	73
16038 Tree Line Dr	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,480 (+1%)	4mo	$278,000	$188	70
15847 Adobe Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,472 (+0%)	2mo	$190,000	$129	69
16201 Pine Ridge Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,566 (+7%)	6mo	$217,000	$139	68
8640 Horizon Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-12%)	9mo	$230,000	$179	66
16201 Tree Line Dr	0.34mi	3/3.0	1,568 (+7%)	8mo	$238,000	$152	62
15836 Lyle Cir	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-4%)	7mo	$313,000	$223	62
8317 Needles Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,364 (-7%)	10mo	$250,000	$183	61
8316 Needles Dr	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,407 (-4%)	9mo	$135,000	$96	60
8524 Winter Haven Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,278 (-13%)	9mo	$214,000	$167	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-3,339
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $2,469
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34667

• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 790
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,164 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$258 /mo · $3,094/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $347

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,725

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8512 Longboat Ln Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,095	$1.40	17d	1	0.16mi
8516 Inwood Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,900	$1.70	5d	1	0.20mi
8316 Needles Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1407	$1,900	$1.35	12d	1	0.43mi
15902 Spyglass Ter Hudson, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1300	$1,910	$1.47	3d	20	0.69mi
7527 Hatteras Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1524	$2,495	$1.64	24d	1	1.27mi
7538 Mako Dr Hudson, FL	4.0	2.0	1686	$1,895	$1.12	24d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-02-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-09
   status Active
3. 2025-07-10
   status Pending
4. 2025-03-10
   listed $119,900 Active
5. 2022-01-20
   soldstatus $230,000
6. 2022-01-18
   soldstatus $230,000 Closed 547-char remark

   Show marketing remark (547 chars)

   Welcome Home! This updated property in Sea Pines is ready to be yours! Home features NEW windows, NEW exterior doors/sliders, updated lighting, two full modern baths, and ceramic tile throughout. Exterior features an enclosed rear porch, outdoor shower and a large concrete slab. Backyard looks onto a beautiful conservation area. Sip your morning coffee while turkey and deer graze in your backyard! Home has been well cared for and is ready for immediate occupancy. Call today to schedule your private showing to see the true value of this home!

7. 2021-12-06
   status Pending 547-char remark

   Show marketing remark (547 chars)

   Welcome Home! This updated property in Sea Pines is ready to be yours! Home features NEW windows, NEW exterior doors/sliders, updated lighting, two full modern baths, and ceramic tile throughout. Exterior features an enclosed rear porch, outdoor shower and a large concrete slab. Backyard looks onto a beautiful conservation area. Sip your morning coffee while turkey and deer graze in your backyard! Home has been well cared for and is ready for immediate occupancy. Call today to schedule your private showing to see the true value of this home!

8. 2021-11-18
   listed $230,000 Active 547-char remark

   Show marketing remark (547 chars)

   Welcome Home! This updated property in Sea Pines is ready to be yours! Home features NEW windows, NEW exterior doors/sliders, updated lighting, two full modern baths, and ceramic tile throughout. Exterior features an enclosed rear porch, outdoor shower and a large concrete slab. Backyard looks onto a beautiful conservation area. Sip your morning coffee while turkey and deer graze in your backyard! Home has been well cared for and is ready for immediate occupancy. Call today to schedule your private showing to see the true value of this home!

9. 2020-07-08
   soldstatus $147,000
10. 2020-07-02
    soldstatus $147,000 Sold 997-char remark

    Show marketing remark (997 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL GULF ACCESS HOME! Tucked away in Hudson, this gorgeous property has everything you need to make it your home! Only 40 miles from Clearwater Beach and Tampa International Airport, residents have ease of access to the Florida life with the peaceful life of the suburbs. Drive up to your double wide driveway in this peaceful deed restricted community. This home's interior was completely remodeled in 2019 with new kitchen cabinets, soft closed doors, new tile flooring, brand new water heater AND newer A/C. Don't worry, the bathrooms were not left out of the renovations either! Outside the home, enjoy the beautiful nature preserve views on the covered lanai. When you do want to interact with neighbors, this active community hosts activities like the Christmas Boat Parade and Easter Egg Hunt. Outside of community activities, enjoy the Florida life with a gulf access community boat ramp. WHY LOOK ANYWHERE ELSE?! Reach out today and see how we can make this gorgeous property yours.

11. 2020-05-26
    status Pending 997-char remark

    Show marketing remark (997 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL GULF ACCESS HOME! Tucked away in Hudson, this gorgeous property has everything you need to make it your home! Only 40 miles from Clearwater Beach and Tampa International Airport, residents have ease of access to the Florida life with the peaceful life of the suburbs. Drive up to your double wide driveway in this peaceful deed restricted community. This home's interior was completely remodeled in 2019 with new kitchen cabinets, soft closed doors, new tile flooring, brand new water heater AND newer A/C. Don't worry, the bathrooms were not left out of the renovations either! Outside the home, enjoy the beautiful nature preserve views on the covered lanai. When you do want to interact with neighbors, this active community hosts activities like the Christmas Boat Parade and Easter Egg Hunt. Outside of community activities, enjoy the Florida life with a gulf access community boat ramp. WHY LOOK ANYWHERE ELSE?! Reach out today and see how we can make this gorgeous property yours.

12. 2020-05-19
    price $149,900 997-char remark

    Show marketing remark (997 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL GULF ACCESS HOME! Tucked away in Hudson, this gorgeous property has everything you need to make it your home! Only 40 miles from Clearwater Beach and Tampa International Airport, residents have ease of access to the Florida life with the peaceful life of the suburbs. Drive up to your double wide driveway in this peaceful deed restricted community. This home's interior was completely remodeled in 2019 with new kitchen cabinets, soft closed doors, new tile flooring, brand new water heater AND newer A/C. Don't worry, the bathrooms were not left out of the renovations either! Outside the home, enjoy the beautiful nature preserve views on the covered lanai. When you do want to interact with neighbors, this active community hosts activities like the Christmas Boat Parade and Easter Egg Hunt. Outside of community activities, enjoy the Florida life with a gulf access community boat ramp. WHY LOOK ANYWHERE ELSE?! Reach out today and see how we can make this gorgeous property yours.

13. 2020-05-08
    listed $158,000 Active 997-char remark

    Show marketing remark (997 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL GULF ACCESS HOME! Tucked away in Hudson, this gorgeous property has everything you need to make it your home! Only 40 miles from Clearwater Beach and Tampa International Airport, residents have ease of access to the Florida life with the peaceful life of the suburbs. Drive up to your double wide driveway in this peaceful deed restricted community. This home's interior was completely remodeled in 2019 with new kitchen cabinets, soft closed doors, new tile flooring, brand new water heater AND newer A/C. Don't worry, the bathrooms were not left out of the renovations either! Outside the home, enjoy the beautiful nature preserve views on the covered lanai. When you do want to interact with neighbors, this active community hosts activities like the Christmas Boat Parade and Easter Egg Hunt. Outside of community activities, enjoy the Florida life with a gulf access community boat ramp. WHY LOOK ANYWHERE ELSE?! Reach out today and see how we can make this gorgeous property yours.

14. 2017-06-16
    soldstatus $88,000
15. 2014-02-11
    soldstatus $55,000
16. 2014-02-10
    soldstatus $55,000
17. 2013-04-06
    listed $59,999

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,094 · $258/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,094 · $258/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,970
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$3,094
• − Insurance: −$5,718
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,078
• − Management: −$2,078
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $2,798
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$671
• After-tax cash flow: $3,487/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hudson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #289
• US rank: #4856

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 45,307
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,689
• Household income: $51,280
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 946.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -183.96%
• Current HPI: 307.5552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.26%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+99.8% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-10 Listed $119,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-20 Sold (Public Records) $230,000 Public Records
• 2022-01-18 Sold (MLS) $230,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-18 Listed $230,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $147,000 Public Records
• 2020-07-02 Sold (MLS) $147,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-26 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-19 Price Changed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-08 Listed $158,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records
• 2014-02-11 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2014-02-10 Sold (MLS) $55,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-04-06 Listed $59,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+10.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,094 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.