333 Capstone Rd · Liberty Hill, TX 78642

$375,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,951 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 183 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 2,613 sqft lot $127/sqft · 13% below area Est $432k · 13% under $37/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.9/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Property is subject to Short Sale Approval.

Key facts

• 2,613 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2020

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $375k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-907 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (42.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (28.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (42.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#495 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Liberty Hill ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #160 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bill Burden El (math 36% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,490 of 4,322 statewide, top 35%, 808 students, 19% FRL); Liberty Hill Middle (math 44% / reading 50%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 944 students, 26% FRL); Liberty Hill H S (math 39% / reading 69%, grade C-, #422 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,001 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 23% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 1886 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 76d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 82% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,789 (42.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.36%
• DSCR: 0.54
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $432,297
• List price: $375,000
• Delta: -13.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
128 Limonite Ln	0.13mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,940 (-0%)	1mo	$369,999	$126	86
171 Limonite Ln	0.21mi	5/3.0	2,850 (-3%)	2mo	$410,000	$144	83
409 Limestone Rd	0.17mi	5/3.0	2,730 (-8%)	3mo	$399,500	$146	77
100 Rhinestone Cv	0.24mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,820 (-4%)	2mo	$499,400	$177	73
181 Flexus Ln	0.16mi	5/3.0	2,595 (-12%)	1mo	$378,000	$146	72
161 Milestone Rd	0.24mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,079 (+4%)	6mo	$850,000	$276	71
513 Limestone Rd	0.16mi	5/3.0	2,661 (-10%)	8mo	$410,000	$154	70
309 Siltstone Way	0.46mi	5/3.5	2,870 (-3%)	6mo	$385,000	$134	67
164 Milestone Rd	0.25mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,171 (+8%)	2mo	$724,000	$228	67
140 Breccia Trl	0.54mi	5/3.0	2,902 (-2%)	9mo	$495,000	$171	64
101 Tripoli Cv	0.71mi	5/3.0	2,920 (-1%)	2mo	$375,250	$129	64
206 Quarry Rock Loop	0.35mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,763 (-6%)	4mo	$410,000	$148	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -39.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-126,082
• Equity at exit: $55,914

10-year hold

• IRR: -88.4%
• Equity multiple: -1.03×
• Total profit: $-213,301
• Equity at exit: $32,423

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 21 active · 15 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.9 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $395,000 ($147/sqft)
• Median days on market: 49 d
• This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -0.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78642

• Home prices YoY: -32.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 1886
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,683 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$866 /mo · $10,397/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$37
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$563
• Net cashflow: $-907

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,831

Max offer price $214,789

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-695	-5% $-801	+0% $-907	+5% $-1,013	+10% $-1,119
Rent	-10% $-1,119	-5% $-1,013	+0% $-907	+5% $-801	+10% $-695
Rate	-1.0pp $-718	-0.5pp $-812	base $-907	+0.5pp $-1,004	+1.0pp $-1,103

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
200 Magna Ln Liberty Hill, TX	5.0	3.0	2623	$2,650	$1.01	83d	1	0.06mi
109 Prospector Ln Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	2.0	1946	$2,200	$1.13	119d	1	0.30mi
83 Prospector Ln Liberty Hill, TX	5.0	3.0	2854	$2,800	$0.98	76d	1	0.33mi
108 Quarry Ln Liberty Hill, TX	5.0	2.5	2469	$2,350	$0.95	82d	1	0.35mi
108 Quarry Ln Liberty Hill, TX	5.0	2.5	2469	$2,245	$0.91	64d	1	0.35mi
108 Quarry Ln Liberty Hill, TX	5.0	2.5	2469	$2,395	$0.97	119d	1	0.35mi
108 Quarry Ln Liberty Hill, TX	5.0	2.5	2469	$2,350	$0.95	94d	1	0.35mi
356 Quarry Ln Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	3.0	2525	$2,250	$0.89	9d	1	0.35mi
289 Drystone Trl Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	2.5	2364	$2,150	$0.91	83d	1	0.50mi
745 Long Run Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	2.5	2050	$2,395	$1.17	113d	1	0.64mi
745 Long Run Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	2.5	2015	$2,099	$1.04	40d	1	0.64mi
777 Long Run Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$2,145	$1.07	42d	1	0.70mi
764 Long Run Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	3.0	1931	$1,990	$1.03	70d	1	0.70mi
149 Andesite Trl Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	3.0	2570	$2,520	$0.98	60d	1	0.71mi
149 Andesite Trl Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	3.0	2570	$2,499	$0.97	58d	1	0.71mi
149 Andesite Trl Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	3.0	2570	$2,520	$0.98	139d	1	0.71mi
321 Caisson Trl Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	2.5	2896	$2,550	$0.88	100d	1	0.71mi
321 Caisson Trl Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	2.5	2896	$2,550	$0.88	113d	1	0.71mi
101 Tripoli Cv Liberty Hill, TX	5.0	3.0	2920	$2,650	$0.91	9d	1	0.72mi
237 Mount Vernon Way Liberty Hill, TX	5.0	3.0	2653	$2,200	$0.83	0d	1	0.73mi
208 Caisson Trl Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	3.0	2410	$2,295	$0.95	40d	1	0.75mi
514 Unakite Trl Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	2.5	2193	$2,295	$1.05	9d	1	0.79mi
216 Continental Ave Liberty Hill, TX	5.0	2.5	2587	$2,200	$0.85	64d	1	0.80mi
205 Freedom Park Ave Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	3.0	2282	$2,195	$0.96	79d	1	0.84mi
105 Declaration Ln Liberty Hill, TX	5.0	2.5	2653	$2,050	$0.77	9d	1	0.86mi
345 Andesite Trl Liberty Hill, TX	5.0	3.0	2694	$2,540	$0.94	80d	1	0.88mi
104 Old Glory Trl Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	2.0	2005	$2,000	$1.00	42d	1	0.91mi
112 Diorite Dr Liberty Hill, TX	5.0	3.0	2722	$2,495	$0.92	119d	1	0.91mi
112 Diorite Dr Liberty Hill, TX	5.0	3.0	2722	$2,495	$0.92	139d	1	0.91mi
241 Capital Hill Vw Liberty Hill, TX	5.0	2.0	2543	$2,250	$0.88	0d	1	0.96mi
321 Old Glory Trl Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	2.0	2032	$1,950	$0.96	139d	1	0.99mi
117 Cherry Tree Ln Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	2.5	2299	$2,249	$0.98	139d	1	0.99mi
92 Sierra Mosca Trl Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	3.5	3678	$4,900	$1.33	67d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $375,000 Active 183 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $375,000 Active 182 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $375,000 Active 181 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $375,000 Active 180 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $375,000 Active 179 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $375,000 Active 178 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $375,000 Active 177 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $375,000 Active 176 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $375,000 Active 175 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $375,000 Active 174 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $375,000 Active 173 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $375,000 Active 172 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $375,000 Active 171 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $375,000 Active 170 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $375,000 Active 164 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $375,000 Active 163 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $375,000 Active 162 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    pricedays on market $375,000 Active 159 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $330,000 Active 158 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $330,000 Active 157 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $330,000 Active 156 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $330,000 Active 155 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $330,000 Active 154 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $330,000 Active 153 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $330,000 Active 152 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $330,000 Active 151 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $330,000 Active 150 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $330,000 Active 149 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $330,000 Active 148 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $330,000 Active 147 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $330,000 Active 146 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $330,000 Active 145 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $330,000 Active 144 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $330,000 Active 143 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $330,000 Active 142 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $330,000 Active 141 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $330,000 Active 139 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $330,000 Active 138 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $330,000 Active 137 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $330,000 Active 136 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $330,000 Active 134 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $330,000 Active 133 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $330,000 Active 132 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $330,000 Active 131 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $330,000 Active 128 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $330,000 Active 126 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $330,000 Active 125 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $330,000 Active 123 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $330,000 Active 121 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $330,000 Active 120 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,397 · $866/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,397 · $866/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 63% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,192
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$10,397
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,575
• − Management: −$2,575
• − HOA: −$444
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$17,590
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,222
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,661/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $14,755–$44,265 screening

This home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. Fresh paint and landscaping upgrades would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Lighting upgrades — Improved lighting can make the home more inviting and energy-efficient ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can significantly boost curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Bill Burden El F TX #1,490/4,322 Nat'l #19,191/41,679 Middle Louine Noble El D TX #926/4,322 Nat'l #13,933/41,679 High Liberty Hill H S C- TX #422/1,632 Nat'l #4,773/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827420
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $81,084
• Composite: 43.65/100
• National rank: #2965
• State rank: #160 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Liberty Hill

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #495
• US rank: #9892

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
• City population: 26,434
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,434
• Household income: $132,958
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3% of renters

---

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 14% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.62%
• Current HPI: 228.5772
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.89%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $330,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $340,000 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $10,397 · -3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.