8754 Peavey Rd · Sedro-Woolley, WA 98284

$525,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,259 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 105 Days on market

Built 1925 0.91 ac lot $232/sqft · 34% below area Est $790k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away at the end of a quiet gravel road, this property offers an exceptional sense of privacy and tranquility. Set on a full acre with no visible neighbors, it truly feels like a secluded retreat—surrounded by nature, wildlife, and open space—yet still conveniently close to town. The setting is nothing short of special. Peaceful, private, and serene, this home offers the kind of atmosphere most buyers are searching for but rarely find. With room to roam, play, and relax, it’s an ideal environment for those looking to spread out and enjoy a more intentional lifestyle. The home provides generous square footage and has seen numerous tasteful updates throughout. Major im

Key facts

• Secluded retreat
• Open space
• Surrounded by nature

Tags

• FULL ACRE
• NO VISIBLE NEIGHBORS
• SECLUDED RETREAT
• SURROUNDED BY NATURE
• OPEN SPACE
• CONVENIENTLY CLOSE TO TOWN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $525k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $328k (37.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $279k (46.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $279k (46.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.4% in Sedro-Woolley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Sedro-Woolley School District (suburban): math 47% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #117 of 291 in WA (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 226 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 561 units permitted in Skagit County in 2024 (270 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $56k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $52k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Skagit County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$90k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($478k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $349k; list at $525k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $278,889 (46.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.11%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 15.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $789,682
• List price: $525,000
• Delta: -33.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25807 Minkler Rd	0.34mi	4/2.5	2,337 (+4%)	22mo	$685,000	$293	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $214,702
• Equity at exit: $472,962

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.68×
• Total profit: $687,864
• Equity at exit: $1,019,960

Cash invested: $147,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98284

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 226
• Price-to-rent: 15.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,789 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,753
• Tax from tax record: −$347 /mo · $4,168/yr
• Insurance: −$219
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$586
• Net cashflow: $-1,116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,202

Max offer price $327,852

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $131,250
• Closing costs: $15,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $525,000 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $525,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $525,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $525,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $525,000 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $525,000 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $525,000 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $525,000 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $525,000 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $525,000 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $525,000 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $525,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $525,000 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    status $525,000 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    status Pending
16. 2026-05-07
    price $525,000
17. 2026-02-12
    listed $550,000 Active
18. 2021-08-31
    soldstatus $349,000 Closed
19. 2021-05-27
    status Pending
20. 2021-04-01
    listed $389,000 Active
21. 2020-03-20
    soldstatus $191,350

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,168 · $347/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,145 · $429/mo
• Expected delta: +$977/yr (+$81/mo · 23.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥83°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,467
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,408
• − Property taxes: −$4,168
• − Insurance: −$2,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,677
• − Management: −$2,677
• − Depreciation: −$15,273
• Taxable loss: −$23,362
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,607
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,785/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sedro-Woolley School District
• NCES district ID: 5307740
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $57,385
• Composite: 47.45/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #117 of 291 in WA

Livability — Sedro-Woolley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Skagit County · 118,108 people
• Metro: Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA
• Population (ZIP): 27,835
• Household income: $93,006
• Rent vs Own: 27.0% rent · 73.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 502.0

Population outlook (Skagit County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 131,498 people
• By 2030: 135,556 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 141,717 · +7.8%
• By 2050: 145,714 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 152,201 · +15.7%
• By 2100: 147,980 · +12.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Skagit

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 52.9% · R 44.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.7pp no change · 2008: 9.6pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+7.5 2016: D+3.2 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+9.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 43.42%
• Current HPI: 1280.83
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+174.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $525,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-12 Listed $550,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-31 Sold (MLS) $349,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-27 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-01 Listed $389,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-20 Sold (Public Records) $191,350 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,168 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.