Frio Plan · Heartland, TX 75114

$256,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily · 38 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

None

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 37 days

🏗️ New construction. The $256,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $270,372.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $257k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-234 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (8.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Crandall ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Barbara Walker El (math 35% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,946 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 663 students, 67% FRL); Crandall Middle (math 38% / reading 42%, grade F, #646 of 1,662 statewide, top 40%, 983 students, 60% FRL); Crandall H S (math 33% / reading 53%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 1,707 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 41% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1208 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 95d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 85% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $206,846 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.72%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,372
• List price: $256,990
• Delta: -4.95%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3513 Hank Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,400 (0%)	4mo	$267,999	$191	84
3524 Straw Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,478 (+6%)	1mo	$259,990	$176	73
3517 Hank Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,478 (+6%)	4mo	$278,535	$188	72
2208 Starstruck Ct	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+0%)	5mo	$261,999	$187	69
3011 Finney St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,561 (+12%)	0mo	$310,373	$199	66
3141 Blossom Trl	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,569 (+12%)	4mo	$229,000	$146	65
3008 Templegate Ct	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,297 (-7%)	9mo	$239,530	$185	62
3908 Bison Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,511 (+8%)	9mo	$259,871	$172	59
3623 Honey Daisy Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,577 (+13%)	6mo	$249,999	$159	59
3941 Bison Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,544 (+10%)	10mo	$301,871	$196	56
3902 Spencer Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,540 (+10%)	3mo	$255,000	$166	47
3921 Allred Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,576 (+13%)	9mo	$299,690	$190	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-58,709
• Equity at exit: $40,313

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-70,219
• Equity at exit: $23,377

Cash invested: $75,704 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 79 active · 41 under contract
• Months of supply: 18.2 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $282,990 ($181/sqft)
• Median days on market: 44 d
• This list price: 27% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +6.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75114

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Active inventory: 1208
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,068 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,418
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$338 /mo · $4,056/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $-234

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,365

Max offer price $236,456

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-48	-5% $-141	+0% $-234	+5% $-328	+10% $-421
Rent	-10% $-398	-5% $-316	+0% $-234	+5% $-153	+10% $-71
Rate	-1.0pp $-98	-0.5pp $-166	base $-234	+0.5pp $-304	+1.0pp $-376

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,593
• Closing costs: $8,111
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3120 Providence Pl Crandall, TX	3.0	2.5	1746	$2,200	$1.26	70d	1	0.30mi
3028 Willow Wood Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.5	1764	$2,500	$1.42	12d	1	0.38mi
3221 Sioux Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1672	$2,450	$1.47	75d	1	0.61mi
2826 Hudson Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1639	$2,350	$1.43	88d	1	0.64mi
2624 Bartlett St Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	120d	1	0.68mi
3942 Surrey Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1257	$1,995	$1.59	3d	1	0.71mi
2745 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	120d	1	0.73mi
2739 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	120d	1	0.73mi
2746 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	120d	1	0.76mi
2919 Cascade Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$2,200	$1.49	139d	1	0.77mi
2521 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	120d	1	0.78mi
3909 Chesapeake Ln Heartland, TX	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,300	$1.31	26d	1	0.79mi
2513 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	120d	1	0.79mi
2510 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	120d	1	0.82mi
2204 Boiling Springs Rd Crandall, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1533	$2,131	$1.39	0d	8	0.82mi
2409 Fleming Dr Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	120d	1	0.82mi
3903 Pioneer Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1754	$2,350	$1.34	82d	1	0.94mi
1275 Eclipse Ln Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,750	$1.36	85d	1	0.96mi
1264 Eclipse Ln Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,950	$1.32	70d	1	0.99mi
2306 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,695	$1.34	139d	1	1.01mi
3140 Blacksmith Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1790	$2,300	$1.28	78d	1	1.01mi
2302 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,650	$1.30	99d	1	1.02mi
2710 Trail Ride Way Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	56d	1	1.03mi
1799 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,800	$1.43	139d	1	1.04mi
3702 Haydon Hill Rd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,650	$1.30	51d	1	1.04mi
2294 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,815	$1.43	120d	1	1.04mi
2294 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,585	$1.25	4d	1	1.04mi
1793 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,709	$1.03	84d	1	1.06mi
3941 Hometown Blvd Unit 3941 Crandall, TX	3.0	2.5	1736	$2,400	$1.38	139d	1	1.07mi
2402 Hesperus Ave Crandall, TX	2.0	1.0	1011	$1,745	$1.73	49d	1	1.08mi
1789 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,739	$1.04	99d	1	1.08mi
3352 Beckwith Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,750	$1.38	95d	1	1.09mi
2403 Hesperus Ave Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,750	$1.21	68d	1	1.10mi
3338 Beckwith Way Unit n/a Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,000	$1.39	8d	1	1.10mi
3315 Beckwith Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,685	$1.17	139d	1	1.11mi
3101 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,645	$1.30	85d	1	1.13mi
3103 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,579	$1.10	78d	1	1.13mi
4001 Fairmont Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1545	$2,000	$1.29	139d	1	1.14mi
3104 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,675	$1.32	120d	1	1.15mi
3121 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,675	$1.16	139d	1	1.16mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $256,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (Frio)Active listing
• Construction: New construction (Plan)Model/plan year 2026
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,400

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan named Frio (new construction plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $256,990 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $256,990 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $256,990 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $256,990 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $256,990 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $256,990 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $256,990 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $256,990 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $256,990 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $256,990 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $256,990 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $256,990 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $256,990 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $256,990 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $256,990 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $256,990 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $256,990 Active 14 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $256,990 Active 13 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $256,990 Active 12 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $256,990 Active 11 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $256,990 Active 10 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $256,990 Active 8 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $256,990 Active 7 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $256,990 Active 6 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $256,990 Active 5 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $256,990 Active 4 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $256,990 Active 3 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $256,990 Active 2 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on marketlisting id $256,990 Active 1 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $256,990 Active 212 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $256,990 Active 211 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $256,990 Active 210 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $256,990 Active 209 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $256,990 Active 208 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $256,990 Active 207 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $256,990 Active 206 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $256,990 Active 205 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $256,990 Active 204 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $256,990 Active 203 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $256,990 Active 201 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $256,990 Active 200 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $256,990 Active 199 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $256,990 Active 198 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $256,990 Active 195 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $256,990 Active 194 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $256,990 Active 193 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $256,990 Active 192 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $256,990 Active 190 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $256,990 Active 188 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $256,990 Active 187 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,822
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,145
• − Property taxes: −$4,056
• − Insurance: −$1,352
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,986
• − Management: −$1,986
• − Depreciation: −$7,865
• Taxable loss: −$7,568
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,816
• After-tax cash flow: $-996/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with minimal maintenance required. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior and interior walls, landscaping improvements, and replacing ceiling fans with energy-efficient models.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Both Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Improves energy efficiency and adds a modern touch ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Barbara Walker El F TX #1,946/4,322 Nat'l #22,764/41,679 Middle Crandall Middle F TX #646/1,662 Nat'l #6,005/14,009 High Crandall H S F TX #713/1,632 Nat'l #7,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crandall ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815510
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,076
• Composite: 35.57/100
• National rank: #4901
• State rank: #351 of 826 in TX

Livability — Heartland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Heartland, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 138,716 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,333
• Household income: $88,013
• Rent vs Own: 12.7% rent · 87.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.61%
• Current HPI: 196.4773
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $256,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (Frio)Active listing
• Construction: New construction (Plan)Model/plan year 2026
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,400

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan named Frio (new construction plan)