3703 Petty Rd · Sulphur Springs, AR 71602

$149,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,524 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1954 2.00 ac lot Est $285k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity that could be your next dream home!! This home has good bones, but does need some work. With 2524 sq ft, 4 bedroom and 2 bath, 2 living areas and a dining room, you have a lot to work with and improve to make it a home again! Sitting on 2 acres and 3 car garage with an extra storage area, gives you ample room for parking and storing your vehicles and mowers to name a few. Priced to sell, this could be your next deal!!!

Key facts

• 2 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1954

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $92 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (8.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (8.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.4% in Sulphur Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#192 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Watson Chapel School District (urban): math 10% / reading 12% proficiency, ranked #228 of 238 in AR (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: L. L. Owen Elementary School (math 22% / reading 8%, grade F, #406 of 454 statewide, top 90%, 238 students, 100% FRL); Watson Chapel Jr. High School (math 7% / reading 14%, grade F, #194 of 201 statewide, top 96%, 463 students, 100% FRL); Watson Chapel High School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #276 of 292 statewide, top 96%, 497 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 68% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 62 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $150k implies a 259% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,624 (8.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.62%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $285,212
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4510 Lowman Rd	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,265 (-10%)	4mo	$255,000	$113	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-18,458
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-8,589
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71602

• Home prices YoY: -7.8%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,366 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,669/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $92

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,250

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $177	-5% $134	+0% $92	+5% $49	+10% $7
Rent	-10% $-16	-5% $38	+0% $92	+5% $146	+10% $200
Rate	-1.0pp $167	-0.5pp $130	base $92	+0.5pp $53	+1.0pp $13

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-03-02
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-02-27
   historical Take Backups
3. 2026-01-01
   listed $149,900 New Listing
4. 2017-11-17
   soldstatus $41,703
5. 2017-10-02
   status Under Contract
6. 2017-09-27
   status Back on Market
7. 2017-09-12
   status Under Contract
8. 2017-09-10
   status Back on Market
9. 2017-09-06
   status Under Contract
10. 2017-09-02
    price $45,000
11. 2017-08-13
    price $55,500
12. 2017-07-15
    price $65,000
13. 2017-05-27
    listed $95,000 New Listing
14. 2004-09-08
    soldstatus $110,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,669 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,669 · $139/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,395
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,669
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,312
• − Management: −$1,312
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$1,404
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$337
• After-tax cash flow: $1,437/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watson Chapel School District
• NCES district ID: 0513930
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 12% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,521
• Composite: 9.55/100
• National rank: #9845
• State rank: #228 of 238 in AR

Livability — Sulphur Springs

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #192
• US rank: #15295

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sulphur Springs, AR
• Population (ZIP): 15,922

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,110 people
• By 2030: 58,519 · -7.3%
• By 2040: 49,740 · -21.2%
• By 2050: 42,331 · -32.9%
• By 2075: 29,591 · -53.1%
• By 2100: 21,047 · -66.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 32% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.1) · D 59.2% · R 39.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: 26.3pp · 2024: 20.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.1 2020: D+21.7 2016: D+25.3 2012: D+29.0 2008: D+26.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.84%
• Current HPI: 223.9305
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+36.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-02 Pending — CARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listed $149,900 CARMLS
• 2017-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $41,703 Public Records
• 2017-10-02 Pending — CARMLS
• 2017-09-27 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2017-09-12 Pending — CARMLS
• 2017-09-10 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2017-09-06 Pending — CARMLS
• 2017-09-02 Price Changed $45,000 CARMLS
• 2017-08-13 Price Changed $55,500 CARMLS
• 2017-07-15 Price Changed $65,000 CARMLS
• 2017-05-27 Listed $95,000 CARMLS
• 2004-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,669 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.