320 4th St · San Leon, TX 77539

$89,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1996 0.29 ac lot $73/sqft · 49% below area Est $166k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One of a kind property! Mobile home has title and is considered real property. Perfect for investor or someone looking for affordable housing! Most of the materials to finish home are inside the home and need to be installed. Property owner never turned on power or water so unknown conditions. Property will be sold as is with no repairs. Willing to sell together with 318 4th St.

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• Built 1996
• Listed 70 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.8% vs local median 1.8% in San Leon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#899 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 664 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $83,660 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.29%
• DSCR: 3.15
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $165,766
• List price: $89,000
• Delta: -46.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
411 Avenue G	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-1%)	9mo	$164,000	$137	68
319 10th St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+12%)	6mo	$174,900	$128	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $43,778
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.95×
• Total profit: $98,430
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77539

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 664
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,927 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax from tax record: −$15 /mo · $185/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $1,003

Break-even live

Break-even rent $657

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
335 6th St Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,850	$1.25	43d	1	0.10mi
535 12th St Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,950	$1.56	1d	1	0.55mi
1404 E Bayshore Dr Dickinson, TX	3.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	43d	1	0.69mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,000 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,000 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $89,000 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-04-09
    listed $89,000 Active 381-char remark

    Show marketing remark (381 chars)

    One of a kind property! Mobile home has title and is considered real property. Perfect for investor or someone looking for affordable housing! Most of the materials to finish home are inside the home and need to be installed. Property owner never turned on power or water so unknown conditions. Property will be sold as is with no repairs. Willing to sell together with 318 4th St.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $185 · $15/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,629 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,444/yr (+$120/mo · 782.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,121
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$185
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,850
• − Management: −$1,850
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $11,217
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,692
• After-tax cash flow: $9,343/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Leon

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #899
• US rank: #16159

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Leon, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 49,375
• Household income: $89,111
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 869.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.46%
• Current HPI: 258.0104
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.12%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $89,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2023): $185 · -11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.