14 Owen St · Ridge Farm, IL 61870

$104,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Other · 74 Days on market

Built 1950 10,800 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

All sq ft are approximate.

Key facts

• New furnace
• Generous yard
• Partial basement

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE
• PARTIAL BASEMENT
• NEW FURNACE
• NEW AC
• GENEROUS YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $131 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $99k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#846 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 8 units permitted in Vermilion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $725 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $887 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Vermilion County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $98,606 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.37%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.85% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,251
• Equity at exit: $26,098

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $21,370
• Equity at exit: $28,072

Cash invested: $29,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61870

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,150 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax from tax record: −$183 /mo · $2,199/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $984

Max offer price $104,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $191	-5% $161	+0% $131	+5% $102	+10% $72
Rent	-10% $41	-5% $86	+0% $131	+5% $177	+10% $222
Rate	-1.0pp $184	-0.5pp $158	base $131	+0.5pp $104	+1.0pp $77

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,225
• Closing costs: $3,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1 N 3rd St Unit 1 Ridge Farm, IL	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,150	$0.96	44d	1	0.22mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2025-12-19
   soldstatus $109,000
2. 2025-12-01
   status Pending
3. 2025-11-10
   historical Active Under Contract
4. 2025-10-29
   price $104,900
5. 2025-10-07
   price $109,900
6. 2025-09-18
   listed $115,000 Active
7. 2024-12-02
   soldstatus $40,500
8. 2018-10-16
   soldstatus $65,000
9. 2018-10-12
   soldstatus $65,000 26-char remark

   Show marketing remark (26 chars)

   All sq ft are approximate.

10. 2018-08-30
    listed $65,000 26-char remark

    Show marketing remark (26 chars)

    All sq ft are approximate.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,199 · $183/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,290 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$91/yr (+$8/mo · 4.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,876
• − Property taxes: −$2,199
• − Insurance: −$524
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,104
• − Management: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$3,052
• Taxable loss: −$59
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$14
• After-tax cash flow: $1,591/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Ridge Farm

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #846
• US rank: #16657

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ridge Farm, IL
• Population (ZIP): 1,153

Population outlook (Vermilion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 72,775 people
• By 2030: 69,235 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 62,360 · -14.3%
• By 2050: 55,539 · -23.7%
• By 2075: 40,606 · -44.2%
• By 2100: 26,985 · -62.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Vermilion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.7) · D 31.4% · R 67.0% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.2pp toward R · 2008: 0.6pp · 2024: -35.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.7 2020: R+32.9 2016: R+29.2 2012: R+15.7 2008: D+0.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.85%
• Current HPI: 219.5996
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+67.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $109,000 Public Records
• 2025-12-01 Pending — CIBR
• 2025-11-10 Contingent — CIBR
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $104,900 CIBR
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $109,900 CIBR
• 2025-09-18 Listed $115,000 CIBR
• 2024-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $40,500 Public Records
• 2018-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2018-10-12 Sold (MLS) $65,000 CIBR
• 2018-08-30 Listed $65,000 CIBR

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,199 · +9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.