Esparanza Plan · Fulshear, TX 77441

$367,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,117 sqft · SingleFamily · 386 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-story home offers open spaces, smart design, and flexible options to fit your lifestyle. From the welcoming great room to the private owner's suite, the Esperanza makes everyday living feel effortless and inviting.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 385 days

Tags

• PRIVATE OWNER'S SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $367,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $465,141.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $368k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-990 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $322k (12.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (23.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $282k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Huggins El (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 893 students, 23% FRL); Briscoe J H (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 1,914 students, 38% FRL); Foster H S (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #141 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,388 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lamar CISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1928 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 39d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 386 days — a 12% lower offer ($324k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $281,528 (23.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 386 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.13%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $465,141
• List price: $367,990
• Delta: -20.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32111 Morning Luster Ct	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,146 (+1%)	5mo	$354,990	$165	85
32523 Midsummer Dr	0.30mi	4/2.5	2,139 (+1%)	3mo	$317,990	$149	80
32515 Midsummer Dr	0.29mi	4/2.5	2,139 (+1%)	4mo	$325,990	$152	79
32119 Morning Luster Ct	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,246 (+6%)	4mo	$364,990	$163	78
5822 Sunkissed Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,990 (-6%)	3mo	$334,990	$168	76
5815 Blazing Light Ln	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,246 (+6%)	4mo	$364,990	$163	72
5807 Blazing Light Ln	0.15mi	4/3.0	2,392 (+13%)	0mo	$344,990	$144	71
32107 Morning Luster Ct	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,402 (+14%)	5mo	$369,990	$154	64
5427 Tourmaline Way	0.34mi	4/3.0	2,364 (+12%)	4mo	$324,900	$137	61
32539 Summer Vista Ln	0.39mi	4/3.0	2,386 (+13%)	1mo	$317,990	$133	60
30914 Waterfowl Ct	0.47mi	4/3.0	2,370 (+12%)	1mo	$385,990	$163	57
32331 Melbrooke	0.43mi	4/3.0	2,394 (+13%)	2mo	$335,000	$140	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-146,661
• Equity at exit: $69,354

10-year hold

• IRR: -71.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.85×
• Total profit: $-240,647
• Equity at exit: $40,217

Cash invested: $130,239 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 97 active · 40 under contract
• Months of supply: 18.2 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $357,990 ($176/sqft)
• Median days on market: 199 d
• This list price: 55% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +24.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77441

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1928
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,815 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,439
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$581 /mo · $6,977/yr
• Insurance: −$194
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$591
• Net cashflow: $-990

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,069

Max offer price $321,827

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-669	-5% $-830	+0% $-990	+5% $-1,151	+10% $-1,312
Rent	-10% $-1,213	-5% $-1,102	+0% $-990	+5% $-879	+10% $-768
Rate	-1.0pp $-756	-0.5pp $-872	base $-990	+0.5pp $-1,111	+1.0pp $-1,234

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $116,285
• Closing costs: $13,954
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
32503 Midsummer Dr Fulshear, TX	4.0	2.5	2342	$2,500	$1.07	119d	1	0.28mi
32511 Midsummer Dr Fulshear, TX	4.0	2.5	2342	$2,500	$1.07	104d	1	0.28mi
5462 Grand View Dr Unit 1568482P Pattison, TX	5.0	3.0	2992	$7,793	$2.60	0d	1	0.40mi
32311 Melbrooke Dr Brookshire, TX	3.0	2.5	2434	$2,295	$0.94	100d	1	0.42mi
31430 Warm Kindling Way Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.0	2640	$3,400	$1.29	29d	1	0.70mi
5222 Wyatt James Ln Brookshire, TX	4.0	2.5	2487	$3,250	$1.31	153d	1	0.84mi
7302 New Pecan Dr Fulshear, TX	4.0	4.0	2844	$3,299	$1.16	10d	1	0.94mi
31043 Vintage Creek Ln Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.5	2800	$3,300	$1.18	1d	1	1.09mi
31043 Vintage Creek Ln Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.5	2800	$3,300	$1.18	75d	1	1.09mi
31123 Brightwell Bnd Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$2,400	$1.00	153d	1	1.24mi
3702 Birtley Bend Way Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.0	2688	$3,499	$1.30	0d	1	1.25mi
31707 Melkridge Rd Fulshear, TX	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,300	$1.10	38d	1	1.42mi
31419 Horseshoe Meadow Bend Ln Fulshear, TX	3.0	2.0	1588	$2,100	$1.32	10d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $367,990 Active 386 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $367,990 Active 385 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $367,990 Active 384 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $367,990 Active 383 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $367,990 Active 382 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $367,990 Active 380 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $367,990 Active 379 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $367,990 Active 378 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $367,990 Active 377 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $367,990 Active 376 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $367,990 Active 375 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $367,990 Active 374 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $367,990 Active 373 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $367,990 Active 372 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $367,990 Active 371 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $367,990 Active 370 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $367,990 Active 369 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $367,990 Active 368 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $367,990 Active 367 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $367,990 Active 366 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $367,990 Active 365 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $367,990 Active 364 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $367,990 Active 363 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $367,990 Active 362 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $367,990 Active 361 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $367,990 Active 360 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $367,990 Active 359 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $367,990 Active 358 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $367,990 Active 357 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $367,990 Active 356 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $367,990 Active 355 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $367,990 Active 354 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $367,990 Active 353 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $367,990 Active 352 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $367,990 Active 351 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $367,990 Active 350 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $367,990 Active 349 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $367,990 Active 348 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $367,990 Active 347 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $367,990 Active 346 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $367,990 Active 345 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $367,990 Active 344 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $367,990 Active 343 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $367,990 Active 342 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $367,990 Active 341 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $367,990 Active 340 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $367,990 Active 339 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $367,990 Active 338 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $367,990 Active 337 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $367,990 Active 335 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,783
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,055
• − Property taxes: −$6,977
• − Insurance: −$2,326
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,703
• − Management: −$2,703
• − Depreciation: −$13,531
• Taxable loss: −$20,511
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,923
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,962/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home offers a good condition with modern amenities and a welcoming design, making it a solid investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — New curtains can improve aesthetics and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Modern technology can increase home's appeal and marketability ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 63/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Huggins El B TX #321/4,322 Nat'l #6,217/41,679 Middle Dean Leaman J H School B TX #206/1,662 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High Foster H S B TX #141/1,632 Nat'l #2,354/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Fulshear

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #430
• US rank: #8901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• City population: 41,324
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,324
• Household income: $184,390
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 4% Chinese 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.74%
• Current HPI: 275.8798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.63%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-10-18 Listed $367,990 Zillow