5266 Crystal St NE #233 · Salem, OR 97305

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 222 Days on market

Built 2018 $76/sqft · 50% above area ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity in Copper Creek Estates all ages park! Functional layout with two living areas, split bedroom floor plan, large dining area, and pantry storage. This home provides an open feel, while leaving each space defined. Fenced yard with additional storage shed. Park rent includes community room and a large park area complete with basketball court, picnic tables, and playground equipment.

Key facts

• Pantry storage
• Fenced yard
• Two living areas

Tags

• TWO LIVING AREAS
• SPLIT BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE DINING AREA
• PANTRY STORAGE
• FENCED YARD
• ADDITIONAL STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.5% vs local median 2.9% in Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#59 in OR, #2,084 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Valley Inquiry Charter School (225 students, 59% FRL, charter); Whiteaker Middle School (682 students, 90% FRL); Mcnary High School (2,081 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 53% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 177 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 222 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 222 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.04%
• DSCR: 2.78
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $76,498
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: 50.33%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5151 Copper Creek Loop #183	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,512 (0%)	2mo	$130,000	$86	94
5279 Gold Dust St NE #220	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,512 (0%)	4mo	$130,000	$86	93
5422 Portland Rd NE #139	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,512 (0%)	3mo	$85,750	$57	85
5422 Portland Rd NE #89	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+2%)	6mo	$104,000	$68	80
5287 Gold Dust St #222	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (-7%)	4mo	$136,850	$97	76
4374 Larch Lp NE	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+2%)	1mo	$99,900	$65	76
5422 Portland Rd NE #24	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-5%)	2mo	$60,000	$42	73
5158 Silver Lp NE	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,724 (+14%)	5mo	$149,900	$87	71
5422 Portland Rd NE #80	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-11%)	1mo	$81,000	$60	68
5422 Portland Rd NE #47	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-11%)	4mo	$35,000	$26	66
4353 Lemon St NE	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,386 (-8%)	4mo	$57,500	$41	64
5422 Portland Rd NE #37	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-14%)	4mo	$39,000	$30	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $49,825
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.09×
• Total profit: $131,628
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97305

• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,358 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,647/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $1,074

Break-even live

Break-even rent $998

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,139	-5% $1,107	+0% $1,074	+5% $1,042	+10% $1,009
Rent	-10% $888	-5% $981	+0% $1,074	+5% $1,168	+10% $1,261
Rate	-1.0pp $1,132	-0.5pp $1,104	base $1,074	+0.5pp $1,045	+1.0pp $1,014

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5115 Countryside St NE Salem, OR	3.0	1.0–2.0	876	$2,260	$2.58	15d	20	0.12mi
4707 Astronaut Ave NE Salem, OR	4.0	2.5	2000	$2,795	$1.40	15d	1	0.19mi
4823 Settlers Dr NE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1228	$2,395	$1.95	45d	1	0.49mi
4115 Geranium Loop NE Salem, OR	3.0	2.5	1316	$2,250	$1.71	15d	1	0.54mi
4927 Orbit Ave NE Salem, OR	3.0	2.5	1598	$2,395	$1.50	22d	1	0.55mi
5034 Armstrong Ave NE Salem, OR	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,550	$1.82	45d	1	0.66mi
4040 Hayesville Dr NE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	927	$1,995	$2.15	15d	25	0.77mi
5150 Constellation Ave NE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1869	$2,795	$1.50	15d	1	0.79mi
4473 47th Ave NE Salem, OR	3.0	1.0	1244	$2,200	$1.77	45d	1	0.95mi
4373 Hearth St NE Salem, OR	4.0	3.0	2152	$3,195	$1.48	25d	1	1.21mi
4334 Ward Pl NE Unit 1 Salem, OR	3.0	1.5	1250	$1,775	$1.42	45d	1	1.26mi
4370 Fisher Rd NE Unit 203 Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,545	$1.41	15d	1	1.36mi
4185 Lancaster Dr NE Salem, OR	3.0	2.5	1672	$2,095	$1.25	45d	1	1.42mi
4116 Lancaster Dr NE Unit 4116 Salem, OR	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,295	$1.18	25d	1	1.49mi
4114 Lancaster Dr NE Unit 4114 Salem, OR	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,295	$1.18	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-14
   statusdays on market $115,000 Pending 222 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $115,000 Active 221 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 220 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 219 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $115,000 Active 218 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $120,000 Active 214 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $120,000 Active 213 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $120,000 Active 212 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $120,000 Active 211 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 210 DOM
11. 2026-05-17
    price $120,000 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    Great opportunity in Copper Creek Estates all ages park! Functional layout with two living areas, split bedroom floor plan, large dining area, and pantry storage. This home provides an open feel, while leaving each space defined. Fenced yard with additional storage shed. Park rent includes community room and a large park area complete with basketball court, picnic tables, and playground equipment.

12. 2026-05-16
    price $120,000 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    Great opportunity in Copper Creek Estates all ages park! Functional layout with two living areas, split bedroom floor plan, large dining area, and pantry storage. This home provides an open feel, while leaving each space defined. Fenced yard with additional storage shed. Park rent includes community room and a large park area complete with basketball court, picnic tables, and playground equipment.

13. 2026-04-10
    status Active 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    Great opportunity in Copper Creek Estates all ages park! Functional layout with two living areas, split bedroom floor plan, large dining area, and pantry storage. This home provides an open feel, while leaving each space defined. Fenced yard with additional storage shed. Park rent includes community room and a large park area complete with basketball court, picnic tables, and playground equipment.

14. 2026-04-10
    status Active 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    Great opportunity in Copper Creek Estates all ages park! Functional layout with two living areas, split bedroom floor plan, large dining area, and pantry storage. This home provides an open feel, while leaving each space defined. Fenced yard with additional storage shed. Park rent includes community room and a large park area complete with basketball court, picnic tables, and playground equipment.

15. 2026-03-25
    status Pending 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    Great opportunity in Copper Creek Estates all ages park! Functional layout with two living areas, split bedroom floor plan, large dining area, and pantry storage. This home provides an open feel, while leaving each space defined. Fenced yard with additional storage shed. Park rent includes community room and a large park area complete with basketball court, picnic tables, and playground equipment.

16. 2026-03-20
    historical Active under Contract 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    Great opportunity in Copper Creek Estates all ages park! Functional layout with two living areas, split bedroom floor plan, large dining area, and pantry storage. This home provides an open feel, while leaving each space defined. Fenced yard with additional storage shed. Park rent includes community room and a large park area complete with basketball court, picnic tables, and playground equipment.

17. 2026-01-24
    price $125,000 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    Great opportunity in Copper Creek Estates all ages park! Functional layout with two living areas, split bedroom floor plan, large dining area, and pantry storage. This home provides an open feel, while leaving each space defined. Fenced yard with additional storage shed. Park rent includes community room and a large park area complete with basketball court, picnic tables, and playground equipment.

18. 2026-01-23
    price $125,000 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    Great opportunity in Copper Creek Estates all ages park! Functional layout with two living areas, split bedroom floor plan, large dining area, and pantry storage. This home provides an open feel, while leaving each space defined. Fenced yard with additional storage shed. Park rent includes community room and a large park area complete with basketball court, picnic tables, and playground equipment.

19. 2025-10-15
    listed $140,000 Active 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    Great opportunity in Copper Creek Estates all ages park! Functional layout with two living areas, split bedroom floor plan, large dining area, and pantry storage. This home provides an open feel, while leaving each space defined. Fenced yard with additional storage shed. Park rent includes community room and a large park area complete with basketball court, picnic tables, and playground equipment.

20. 2025-10-15
    listed $140,000 Active 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    Great opportunity in Copper Creek Estates all ages park! Functional layout with two living areas, split bedroom floor plan, large dining area, and pantry storage. This home provides an open feel, while leaving each space defined. Fenced yard with additional storage shed. Park rent includes community room and a large park area complete with basketball court, picnic tables, and playground equipment.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,647 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,647 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,294
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,647
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,263
• − Management: −$2,263
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $11,757
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,822
• After-tax cash flow: $10,071/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Salem

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #2084

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Salem, OR
• City population: 193,601
• Population (ZIP): 45,044

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 44% Two or more races 16% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 3% Native American 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -328.50%
• Current HPI: 296.3428
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $120,000 WVMLS
• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $120,000 RMLS
• 2026-04-10 Relisted — WVMLS
• 2026-04-10 Relisted — RMLS
• 2026-03-25 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-03-20 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $125,000 WVMLS
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $125,000 RMLS
• 2025-10-15 Listed $140,000 RMLS
• 2025-10-15 Listed $140,000 WVMLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2020): $1,647 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.