312 E O'neil Dr #116 · Casa Grande, AZ 85122

$210,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,533 sqft · Manufactured · 172 Days on market

Built 2024 5,040 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Your Low-Maintenance Lifestyle Starts Here. Brand new Champion home in Spanish Trails West offers fresh style, smart layout & easy living. Gated community offers fiber internet, a pool, a clubhouse, game room, a library & events, with low land lease fees. This 2-bedroom + den/office with a door gives flexible space for work, hobbies, or guests. The open kitchen features stainless appliances, solid surface-style counters, island seating & tons of cabinetry, flowing into a bright living area with built-in cabinetry. The spacious suite has a walk-in closet, dual sinks & large shower. Outside, enjoy ample, covered rear patio space, a covered carport, a spacious driveway

Key facts

• Gated community
• Clubhouse
• Fiber internet

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• FIBER INTERNET
• POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• GAME ROOM
• LIBRARY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size about 5,040 (builder source)
• HOA & community: Land lease of $450 per month; No association fees included; Community pool; Pickleball courts; Community spa (heated); Community media room; Community laundry; Fitness center

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Private water company; Public sewer; 220 volts in kitchen (electric)
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Steel frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Storage; Sprinklers in front; Gravel/stone front and back; Automatic front watering timer

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; 220-volt outlet in kitchen; Kitchen island; Breakfast bar; Walk-in pantry; Laminate counters
• Bedrooms: 3 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; Double vanity in bath; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; No interior steps; Kitchen island; Pantry (walk-in); 3/4 bath in master bedroom; Laminate counters; Dual-pane windows; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $349 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $185k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 4.0% in Casa Grande — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#220 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Casa Grande Union High School District (4453) (suburban): math 14% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #193 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Cottonwood Elementary School (math 8% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,109 statewide, top 96%, 451 students, 89% FRL); Casa Grande Middle School (math 7% / reading 12%, grade F, #197 of 218 statewide, top 91%, 645 students, 84% FRL); Casa Grande Union High School (math 18% / reading 25%, grade F, #217 of 381 statewide, top 57%, 2,132 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 632 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 172 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 172 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.12%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $105,777
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
312 E O'neil Dr #103	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-12%)	1mo	$140,000	$104	76
120 W O'neil Dr #84	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,352 (-12%)	7mo	$70,000	$52	60
312 E O'neil Dr #123	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,486 (-3%)	12mo	$189,000	$127	58
312 E O'neil Dr #159	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,486 (-3%)	14mo	$200,000	$135	57
450 W Sunwest Dr #98	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+2%)	12mo	$135,000	$86	56
450 W Sunwest Dr #143	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (+2%)	11mo	$75,000	$48	52
312 E O'neil Dr #112	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,379 (-10%)	14mo	$189,000	$137	50
450 W Sunwest Dr #68	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,364 (-11%)	4mo	$80,000	$59	49
450 W Sunwest Dr #114	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,328 (-13%)	6mo	$59,000	$44	42
450 W Sunwest Dr #17	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-12%)	11mo	$92,500	$69	41
450 W Sunwest Dr #273	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (-11%)	13mo	$89,500	$65	36
450 W Sunwest Dr #149	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,352 (-12%)	14mo	$81,000	$60	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-8,032
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $37,579
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85122

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 632
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,279 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$262 /mo · $3,150/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $349

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,837

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $494	-5% $422	+0% $349	+5% $277	+10% $204
Rent	-10% $169	-5% $259	+0% $349	+5% $439	+10% $529
Rate	-1.0pp $455	-0.5pp $403	base $349	+0.5pp $295	+1.0pp $239

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1640 N Cameron St Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1577	$3,250	$2.06	23d	1	0.27mi
1640 N Cameron St Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1577	$3,250	$2.06	25d	1	0.27mi
1640 N Cameron St Unit 1640 Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.5	1577	$3,250	$2.06	26d	1	0.27mi
1642 N Cameron St Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.5	1577	$3,250	$2.06	26d	1	0.28mi
1858 N Center Ave Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	2.0	1146	$1,500	$1.31	26d	1	0.40mi
1846 N Princeton Ave Casa Grande, AZ	4.0	2.0	1786	$1,750	$0.98	6d	1	0.41mi
1775 N Terrace Cir Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1628	$1,699	$1.04	16d	1	0.59mi
1620 N Trekell Rd Casa Grande, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1090	$2,640	$2.42	0d	1	0.74mi
1926 N Avenida de Palmas Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	2.0	1106	$1,199	$1.08	23d	3	0.76mi
1584 N Wood St Casa Grande, AZ	4.0	2.0	1928	$1,800	$0.93	16d	1	0.81mi
541 W Melrose Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1101	$1,600	$1.45	26d	1	0.81mi
1153 E Gabrilla Dr Casa Grande, AZ	4.0	2.0	1689	$1,795	$1.06	21d	1	0.81mi
1161 E O'Neil Dr Casa Grande, AZ	2.0–4.0	2.0	1144	$1,498	$1.31	0d	13	0.84mi
1100 N Brown Ave Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,950	$1.21	0d	1	0.94mi
1936 N Trekell Rd Casa Grande, AZ	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1033	$1,723	$1.67	0d	31	0.95mi
645 W Jardin Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1309	$1,650	$1.26	26d	1	0.96mi
520 W Casa Mirage Ct Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,600	$1.04	6d	1	0.97mi
767 W Barrus Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,695	$1.16	26d	1	1.03mi
1979 N Vista Ln Casa Grande, AZ	4.0	2.0	1636	$2,200	$1.34	26d	1	1.04mi
1251 E Jahns Dr Casa Grande, AZ	4.0	2.0	1810	$1,995	$1.10	0d	1	1.05mi
1256 E Jahns Dr Casa Grande, AZ	4.0	3.0	2094	$2,199	$1.05	7d	1	1.07mi
2094 N Sweetwater Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,700	$1.34	26d	1	1.09mi
736 W Palo Verde Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1810	$3,550	$1.96	26d	1	1.10mi
919 N Gilbert Ave Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1630	$1,850	$1.13	0d	1	1.18mi
803 W Jardin Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1491	$1,725	$1.16	6d	1	1.20mi
1131 E Trinity Pl Casa Grande, AZ	4.0	2.5	1600	$1,650	$1.03	26d	1	1.23mi
1265 E Kingman St Casa Grande, AZ	4.0	2.0	1874	$2,099	$1.12	7d	1	1.26mi
1265 E Kingman St Casa Grande, AZ	4.0	2.0	1874	$2,099	$1.12	0d	1	1.26mi
776 W Fairlane Ct Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1489	$3,200	$2.15	26d	1	1.32mi
928 N Pueblo Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,550	$1.19	26d	1	1.35mi
750 W Torino Pl Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	2007	$3,000	$1.49	0d	1	1.36mi
1025 N Menze St Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	1.5	1301	$1,695	$1.30	14d	1	1.38mi
845 W Crooked Stick Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1601	$2,000	$1.25	26d	1	1.39mi
1007 N Menze St Casa Grande, AZ	4.0	2.0	1539	$1,580	$1.03	7d	1	1.41mi
846 N Pueblo Dr #138 Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1324	$1,700	$1.28	16d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $210,000 Active 172 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $210,000 Active 171 DOM
3. 2025-12-10
   listed $210,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,348
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$3,150
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,188
• − Management: −$2,188
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable income: $900
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$216
• After-tax cash flow: $3,973/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Casa Grande Union High School District (4453)
• NCES district ID: 0401740
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,373
• Composite: 15.38/100
• National rank: #9319
• State rank: #193 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Casa Grande

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #21534

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Casa Grande, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 69,701
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 61,624
• Household income: $68,443
• Rent vs Own: 28.6% rent · 71.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1250.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 42% Two or more races 21% Black 4% Native American 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.32%
• Current HPI: 233.148
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.60%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-10 Listed $210,000 ARMLS