1515 Polaris #343 · Pittsburg, CA 94565

$229,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 43 Days on market

Built 1977 Good condition $160/sqft · 19% above area Est $193k · 19% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom Manufactured Home with Covered Parking! Welcome to this well-maintained and move-in-ready 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home nestled in a peaceful and well-kept community. This property boasts a spacious open floor plan with ample natural light, a large carport with covered parking for two vehicles, and a low-maintenance landscaped yard with drought-tolerant plants. The home features updated windows with awnings for added shade and energy efficiency. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and public transportation. Whether you're a first-time buyer or looking to downsize, this home offers comfort, convenience, and affordability!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Near dining
• Covered parking

Tags

• COVERED PARKING
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LANDSCAPED YARD
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• NEAR SHOPPING
• NEAR DINING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Park name: The Meadows MHP; Clubhouse; Playground; Guest parking; Park interview required; Pet-friendly (cats and dogs OK; number and size limits; approval required); Picnic area

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (covered, awning-style); Carport for 2 or more vehicles; No garage; Guest parking in community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public power
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Double-wide mobile home
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Metal siding; Metal skirting
• Exterior features: Patio (covered and enclosed); Carpeted porch/patio; Low maintenance yard; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast bar configuration; Laminate counters; Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range / cooktop; Free‑standing range/oven; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Sun porch
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Gas dryer hookup; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $230k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $804 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $223k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 3.4% in Pittsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#687 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Pittsburg Unified (suburban): math 21% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #1,069 of 1,400 in CA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 265 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($96k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,003 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.99%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $193,101
• List price: $229,900
• Delta: 19.06%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
140 Shannon	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	0mo	$228,000	$158	89
285 Auburn	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,488 (+3%)	5mo	$225,000	$151	81
352 Blackleaf #352	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,440 (0%)	23mo	$225,000	$156	77
364 Stonyford Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	8mo	$165,000	$107	76
308 Jacinto	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,306 (-9%)	12mo	$265,000	$203	64
131 Klamath	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,224 (-15%)	10mo	$196,000	$160	63
203 Bernauer	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,312 (-9%)	20mo	$173,000	$132	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $8,337
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $51,037
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94565

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,029 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$287 /mo · $3,448/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$636
• Net cashflow: $804

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,011

Max offer price $229,900

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1010 Power Ave Pittsburg, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	818	$2,169	$2.65	3d	12	0.42mi
1093 Mayport Dr Pittsburg, CA	4.0	2.5	1865	$3,500	$1.88	13d	1	0.48mi
332 Riptide Ct Pittsburg, CA	3.0	2.0	1167	$2,795	$2.40	13d	1	0.54mi
244 Balsam St Pittsburg, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,600	$2.12	44d	1	0.64mi
61 Cassia St Pittsburg, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,400	$2.00	13d	1	0.77mi
1249 Beacon St Unit 2 Pittsburg, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$2,500	$2.78	24d	1	1.07mi
229 W 8th St Unit A Pittsburg, CA	2.0	1.0	1400	$2,750	$1.96	44d	1	1.41mi
17 Lorraine Ave Pittsburg, CA	3.0	1.5	1180	$2,700	$2.29	18d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,900 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,900 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,900 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,900 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,900 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,900 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,900 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,900 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $229,900 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $229,900 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,900 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,900 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,900 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,900 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    listed $229,900 Active 665-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,344
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$3,448
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,908
• − Management: −$2,908
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable income: $6,365
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,528
• After-tax cash flow: $8,119/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 23 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained and move-in-ready manufactured home offers a spacious open floor plan with updated windows and a low-maintenance landscaping. It is in good condition with minor cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Resale Replace carpet in bedrooms — Fresh carpet improves comfort and appearance
• Resale Replace outdated appliances in kitchen — Modern appliances attract more buyers
• Resale Replace outdated fixtures in bathrooms — Modern fixtures enhance the home's appeal
• Resale Replace outdated flooring in bathrooms — Fresh flooring improves the home's appearance and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Replace carpet in bedrooms — Fresh carpet improves comfort and appearance ↑
• Resale Replace outdated appliances in kitchen — Modern appliances attract more buyers ↑
• Resale Replace outdated fixtures in bathrooms — Modern fixtures enhance the home's appeal ↑
• Resale Replace outdated flooring in bathrooms — Fresh flooring improves the home's appearance and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pittsburg Unified
• NCES district ID: 0630600
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,872
• Composite: 27.99/100
• National rank: #12238
• State rank: #1069 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Pittsburg

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #687
• US rank: #20922

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pittsburg, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 100,488
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 100,488
• Household income: $95,556
• Rent vs Own: 39.1% rent · 60.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3942.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% Two or more races 19% Asian 17% White 16% Black 13% Pacific Islander 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Russian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 37% Tagalog/Filipino 6% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -478.40%
• Current HPI: 376.2576
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.11%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $229,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR