12644 S Red Horizon Trl · Vail, AZ 85641

$250,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 42 Days on market

Built 2001 1.00 ac lot $172/sqft · 7% below area Est $270k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1 ACRE LOT!! New AC! Have you been searching for the perfect place to enjoy outdoor living? Then you found the perfect home! This 4 bedroom 2 bathroom open floor plan creates a warm, welcoming interior which is bathed in natural light and enjoys well-proportioned rooms and a flow-through living/dining area. The interior features vinyl flooring in the kitchen and plush carpet throughout the bedrooms, neutral-toned paint, and plenty of room for friends and family game nights. Designed for gatherings and casual entertaining, this eat-in kitchen has been well-maintained and includes stainless-steel appliances, breakfast bar, electric oven, laminate countertops, wooden cabinetry, space-efficient pantry and an electric stove. Equipped with lots of storage space, the spacious main suite offers an ensuite bathroom with a combined shower and tub, large walk-in closet, carpet flooring, and scenic mountain views. Enjoy the indoor/outdoor lifestyle in your beautifully maintained backyard which includes an ACRE LOT to enjoy all your favorite outdoor activities, gorgeous mountain views, and mature trees. See for yourself what this home has to offer. Schedule your private tour today.

Key facts

• New water heater
• Spacious lot
• Mountain views

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• PRIVATE OUTDOOR SANCTUARY
• NEW WATER HEATER
• ROOM FOR OUTDOOR LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 43,560 sq ft; Zoned Vail - GR1
• HOA & community: No association amenities

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Water provided by water company; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story; Faces east
• Construction: Frame construction with metal siding and siding accents; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Paver patio; Deck; Chain link and wood fencing; Shrub landscaping; East/West exposure; Dirt road access (county maintained)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric range; Electric oven
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $404 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (3.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (3.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.4% in Vail — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#51 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Vail Unified District (4413) (rural): math 52% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #26 of 249 in AZ (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Acacia Elementary School (math 47% / reading 53%, grade D+, #263 of 1,109 statewide, top 24%, 743 students, 29% FRL); Old Vail Middle School (math 45% / reading 50%, grade C-, #36 of 218 statewide, top 18%, 798 students, 17% FRL); Cienega High School (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #50 of 381 statewide, top 14%, 1,913 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools at 22% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 655 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $178k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,137 (3.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.92%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,000
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -7.41%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12630 S Morning Dew Trl	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,610 (+11%)	14mo	$265,000	$165	56
12845 S Vail Desert Trl	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-14%)	20mo	$255,000	$204	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-9,926
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $45,322
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85641

• Home prices YoY: -22.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 655
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,401 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $938/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $404

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,890

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $545	-5% $474	+0% $404	+5% $333	+10% $262
Rent	-10% $214	-5% $309	+0% $404	+5% $499	+10% $593
Rate	-1.0pp $530	-0.5pp $467	base $404	+0.5pp $339	+1.0pp $273

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12725 S Red Horizon Trl Vail, AZ	3.0	2.0	1301	$2,200	$1.69	18d	1	0.11mi

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $250,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $250,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    listed $250,000 Active 618-char remark
17. 2026-03-30
    historical
18. 2026-01-06
    status Active
19. 2025-12-29
    historical Active Contingent
20. 2025-10-21
    price $253,000
21. 2025-10-15
    price $260,000
22. 2025-08-18
    listed $265,000 Active
23. 2024-08-15
    historical $1,400
24. 2024-07-24
    listed $1,400
25. 2022-08-01
    price $1,395
26. 2021-11-02
    soldstatus $177,500 Closed

    Show marketing remark (1187 chars)

    1 ACRE LOT!! New AC! Have you been searching for the perfect place to enjoy outdoor living? Then you found the perfect home! This 4 bedroom 2 bathroom open floor plan creates a warm, welcoming interior which is bathed in natural light and enjoys well-proportioned rooms and a flow-through living/dining area. The interior features vinyl flooring in the kitchen and plush carpet throughout the bedrooms, neutral-toned paint, and plenty of room for friends and family game nights. Designed for gatherings and casual entertaining, this eat-in kitchen has been well-maintained and includes stainless-steel appliances, breakfast bar, electric oven, laminate countertops, wooden cabinetry, space-efficient pantry and an electric stove. Equipped with lots of storage space, the spacious main suite offers an ensuite bathroom with a combined shower and tub, large walk-in closet, carpet flooring, and scenic mountain views. Enjoy the indoor/outdoor lifestyle in your beautifully maintained backyard which includes an ACRE LOT to enjoy all your favorite outdoor activities, gorgeous mountain views, and mature trees. See for yourself what this home has to offer. Schedule your private tour today.

27. 2021-11-02
    soldstatus $177,500

    Show marketing remark (1187 chars)

    1 ACRE LOT!! New AC! Have you been searching for the perfect place to enjoy outdoor living? Then you found the perfect home! This 4 bedroom 2 bathroom open floor plan creates a warm, welcoming interior which is bathed in natural light and enjoys well-proportioned rooms and a flow-through living/dining area. The interior features vinyl flooring in the kitchen and plush carpet throughout the bedrooms, neutral-toned paint, and plenty of room for friends and family game nights. Designed for gatherings and casual entertaining, this eat-in kitchen has been well-maintained and includes stainless-steel appliances, breakfast bar, electric oven, laminate countertops, wooden cabinetry, space-efficient pantry and an electric stove. Equipped with lots of storage space, the spacious main suite offers an ensuite bathroom with a combined shower and tub, large walk-in closet, carpet flooring, and scenic mountain views. Enjoy the indoor/outdoor lifestyle in your beautifully maintained backyard which includes an ACRE LOT to enjoy all your favorite outdoor activities, gorgeous mountain views, and mature trees. See for yourself what this home has to offer. Schedule your private tour today.

28. 2021-10-06
    historical Active Contingent

    Show marketing remark (1187 chars)

    1 ACRE LOT!! New AC! Have you been searching for the perfect place to enjoy outdoor living? Then you found the perfect home! This 4 bedroom 2 bathroom open floor plan creates a warm, welcoming interior which is bathed in natural light and enjoys well-proportioned rooms and a flow-through living/dining area. The interior features vinyl flooring in the kitchen and plush carpet throughout the bedrooms, neutral-toned paint, and plenty of room for friends and family game nights. Designed for gatherings and casual entertaining, this eat-in kitchen has been well-maintained and includes stainless-steel appliances, breakfast bar, electric oven, laminate countertops, wooden cabinetry, space-efficient pantry and an electric stove. Equipped with lots of storage space, the spacious main suite offers an ensuite bathroom with a combined shower and tub, large walk-in closet, carpet flooring, and scenic mountain views. Enjoy the indoor/outdoor lifestyle in your beautifully maintained backyard which includes an ACRE LOT to enjoy all your favorite outdoor activities, gorgeous mountain views, and mature trees. See for yourself what this home has to offer. Schedule your private tour today.

29. 2021-09-29
    listed $182,500 Active

    Show marketing remark (1187 chars)

    1 ACRE LOT!! New AC! Have you been searching for the perfect place to enjoy outdoor living? Then you found the perfect home! This 4 bedroom 2 bathroom open floor plan creates a warm, welcoming interior which is bathed in natural light and enjoys well-proportioned rooms and a flow-through living/dining area. The interior features vinyl flooring in the kitchen and plush carpet throughout the bedrooms, neutral-toned paint, and plenty of room for friends and family game nights. Designed for gatherings and casual entertaining, this eat-in kitchen has been well-maintained and includes stainless-steel appliances, breakfast bar, electric oven, laminate countertops, wooden cabinetry, space-efficient pantry and an electric stove. Equipped with lots of storage space, the spacious main suite offers an ensuite bathroom with a combined shower and tub, large walk-in closet, carpet flooring, and scenic mountain views. Enjoy the indoor/outdoor lifestyle in your beautifully maintained backyard which includes an ACRE LOT to enjoy all your favorite outdoor activities, gorgeous mountain views, and mature trees. See for yourself what this home has to offer. Schedule your private tour today.

30. 2008-05-28
    historical
31. 2007-10-29
    listed $130,000
32. 2006-06-14
    soldstatus $105,000
33. 2006-06-14
    soldstatus $105,000
34. 2006-03-15
    listed $114,900
35. 2004-06-07
    soldstatus $57,000
36. 2004-05-21
    soldstatus $57,000
37. 2004-03-18
    listed $59,000
38. 2001-10-30
    soldstatus $33,500
39. 2001-08-20
    listed $33,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $938 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,650 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$712/yr (+$59/mo · 75.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,816
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$938
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,305
• − Management: −$2,305
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable income: $741
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$178
• After-tax cash flow: $4,667/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vail Unified District (4413)
• NCES district ID: 0408850
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $77,126
• Composite: 49.1/100
• National rank: #2051
• State rank: #26 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Vail

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #51
• US rank: #9543

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vail, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 34,752
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 34,752
• Household income: $131,164
• Rent vs Own: 5.9% rent · 94.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 42.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.78%
• Current HPI: 250.1814
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.02%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+646.3% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $250,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-30 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-06 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2025-12-29 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $253,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $260,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-08-18 Listed $265,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-08-15 Rental Removed $1,400 BUILDIUM
• 2024-07-24 Listed for Rent $1,400 BUILDIUM
• 2022-08-01 Price Changed $1,395 BUILDIUM
• 2021-11-02 Sold (Public Records) $177,500 Public Records
• 2021-11-02 Sold (MLS) $177,500 MLSSAZ
• 2021-10-06 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2021-09-29 Listed $182,500 MLSSAZ
• 2008-05-28 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2007-10-29 Listed $130,000 MLSSAZ
• 2006-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2006-06-14 Sold (MLS) $105,000 MLSSAZ
• 2006-03-15 Listed $114,900 MLSSAZ
• 2004-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records
• 2004-05-21 Sold (MLS) $57,000 MLSSAZ
• 2004-03-18 Listed $59,000 MLSSAZ
• 2001-10-30 Sold (MLS) $33,500 MLSSAZ
• 2001-08-20 Listed $33,500 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $938 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.