419 Birch · Perry, OK 73077

$53,700

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,336 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1945

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Look at all the square footage you'll enjoy on a budget! With over 1300sq ft this house has a second living area that could easily be used as a 3rd bedroom. The large utility area has washer/dryer hookups and a second toilet for the home. Freshly painted inside and out, and some new flooring added its ready for you to move in and make it your own.

Key facts

• Built 1945
• Listed 7 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Lot approximately 4,500 sq ft; Residential zoning (Perry)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Natural gas heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $54k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $549 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $54k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#78 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Perry (rural): math 22% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #102 of 270 in OK (top 38%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Noble County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $371 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Noble County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $53,700

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.83%
• DSCR: 2.95
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $130,928
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
512 Ivanhoe	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,347 (+1%)	2mo	$130,000	$97	62
422 Grove St	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,450 (+8%)	2mo	$175,000	$121	58
700 N 6th	0.43mi	2/1.0	1,511 (+13%)	4mo	$80,000	$53	55
813 Birch	0.41mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,268 (-5%)	17mo	$40,000	$32	53
120 Cedar St	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,434 (+7%)	12mo	$210,000	$146	52
813 Delaware St	0.45mi	2/1.5	1,140 (-15%)	3mo	$91,500	$80	50
118 Cedar St	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,493 (+12%)	6mo	$210,000	$141	49
501 E Boundary St	0.57mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,330 (-0%)	20mo	$131,000	$98	49
626 Holly St	0.52mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,224 (-8%)	12mo	$66,000	$54	47
104 S 11th	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,385 (+4%)	16mo	$177,000	$128	46
916 Holly St	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,174 (-12%)	4mo	$125,000	$106	39
303 N 11th St	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,520 (+14%)	11mo	$120,000	$79	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $26,258
• Equity at exit: $8,007

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.51×
• Total profit: $67,835
• Equity at exit: $4,643

Cash invested: $15,036 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73077

• Home prices YoY: -3.9%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,096 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$282
• Tax from tax record: −$12 /mo · $148/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $549

Break-even live

Break-even rent $400

Max offer price $53,700

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $580	-5% $564	+0% $549	+5% $534	+10% $519
Rent	-10% $463	-5% $506	+0% $549	+5% $592	+10% $636
Rate	-1.0pp $576	-0.5pp $563	base $549	+0.5pp $535	+1.0pp $521

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,425
• Closing costs: $1,611
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $53,700 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $53,700 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $53,700 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $53,700 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $53,700 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $53,700 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on marketlisting id $53,700 Active 1 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $53,700 Active 183 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $53,700 Active 182 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $53,700 Active 181 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $53,700 Active 180 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $53,700 Active 176 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $53,700 Active 175 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $53,700 Active 174 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $53,700 Active 173 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $53,700 Active 172 DOM
17. 2026-05-20
    price $53,700
18. 2026-03-11
    price $57,500
19. 2025-12-09
    listed $62,500 Active
20. 2025-10-06
    price $38,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $148 · $12/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $483 · $40/mo
• Expected delta: +$335/yr (+$28/mo · 226.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,147
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,008
• − Property taxes: −$148
• − Insurance: −$268
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,052
• − Management: −$1,052
• − Depreciation: −$1,562
• Taxable income: $6,057
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,454
• After-tax cash flow: $5,137/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Perry
• NCES district ID: 4023850
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $43,886
• Composite: 21.86/100
• National rank: #8239
• State rank: #102 of 270 in OK

Livability — Perry

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10029

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Perry, OK
• Population (ZIP): 6,235

Population outlook (Noble County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,554 people
• By 2030: 11,506 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 11,345 · -1.8%
• By 2050: 11,128 · -3.7%
• By 2075: 10,658 · -7.8%
• By 2100: 9,623 · -16.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Iranian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Noble

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.4) · D 20.4% · R 77.7% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.8pp toward R · 2008: -53.6pp · 2024: -57.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.4 2020: R+57.1 2016: R+57.6 2012: R+50.6 2008: R+53.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.14%
• Current HPI: 227.4711
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+38.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $53,700 SBOR
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $57,500 SBOR
• 2025-12-09 Listed $62,500 SBOR
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $38,900 SBOR

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $148 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.