15313 Livermore Rd · Pinckney, MI 48169

$184,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 158 Days on market

Built 1970 1.18 ac lot $161/sqft · 33% above area Est $139k · 33% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Completely remodeled with luxury vinyl thoughout the entire home. Modern finishes light and bright. Trex decking and a new septic field in 2025. Situated on over an acre of land, it's perfect for entertaining. Zoned for Stockbridge schools. Michigan is school of choice. This property offers a chance to create a beautiful home. The seller has never lived in the property.

Key facts

• Remodeled
• Trex decking
• Over an acre of land

Tags

• REMODELED
• TREX DECKING
• NEW SEPTIC FIELD
• OVER AN ACRE OF LAND
• ZONED FOR STOCKBRIDGE SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $397 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 2.9% in Pinckney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#333 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Stockbridge Community Schools (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #277 of 540 in MI (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 488 units permitted in Livingston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $185k implies a 516% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $162,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.20%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $138,940
• List price: $184,900
• Delta: 33.08%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-4,742
• Equity at exit: $27,569

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $28,157
• Equity at exit: $15,987

Cash invested: $51,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48169

• Active inventory: 127
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,920 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $882/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $397

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,418

Max offer price $184,900

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $502	-5% $449	+0% $397	+5% $345	+10% $292
Rent	-10% $245	-5% $321	+0% $397	+5% $473	+10% $549
Rate	-1.0pp $490	-0.5pp $444	base $397	+0.5pp $349	+1.0pp $300

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,225
• Closing costs: $5,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $184,900 Active 158 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,900 Active 157 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $184,900 Active 156 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,900 Active 155 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $184,900 Active 154 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $184,900 Active 152 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,900 Active 151 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $184,900 Active 149 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $184,900 Active 148 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $184,900 Active 147 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $184,900 Active 146 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $184,900 Active 141 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $184,900 Active 140 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $184,900 Active 139 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $184,900 Active 138 DOM
16. 2026-04-09
    price $184,900 372-char remark

    Show marketing remark (372 chars)

    Completely remodeled with luxury vinyl thoughout the entire home. Modern finishes light and bright. Trex decking and a new septic field in 2025. Situated on over an acre of land, it's perfect for entertaining. Zoned for Stockbridge schools. Michigan is school of choice. This property offers a chance to create a beautiful home. The seller has never lived in the property.

17. 2026-04-08
    price $184,900 373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (373 chars)

    Completely remodeled with luxury vinyl thoughout the entire home. Modern finishes light and bright. Trex decking and a new septic field in 2025. Situated on over an acre of land, it's perfect for entertaining. Zoned for Stockbridge schools. Michigan is school of choice. This property offers a chance to create a beautiful home. The seller has never lived in the property.

18. 2026-01-12
    listed $204,900 Active 373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (372 chars)

    Completely remodeled with luxury vinyl thoughout the entire home. Modern finishes light and bright. Trex decking and a new septic field in 2025. Situated on over an acre of land, it's perfect for entertaining. Zoned for Stockbridge schools. Michigan is school of choice. This property offers a chance to create a beautiful home. The seller has never lived in the property.

19. 2026-01-12
    listed $204,900 Active 372-char remark

    Show marketing remark (372 chars)

    Completely remodeled with luxury vinyl thoughout the entire home. Modern finishes light and bright. Trex decking and a new septic field in 2025. Situated on over an acre of land, it's perfect for entertaining. Zoned for Stockbridge schools. Michigan is school of choice. This property offers a chance to create a beautiful home. The seller has never lived in the property.

20. 2025-03-01
    soldstatus $30,000 Closed
21. 2025-03-01
    soldstatus $30,000 Closed
22. 2025-02-07
    historical Accepting Backup Offers
23. 2025-02-07
    historical Active Under Contract
24. 2025-01-30
    price $75,000
25. 2025-01-29
    price $75,000
26. 2025-01-20
    status Active
27. 2025-01-20
    status Active
28. 2025-01-14
    status Pending
29. 2025-01-13
    status Pending
30. 2024-12-01
    price $99,000
31. 2024-12-01
    price $99,000
32. 2024-11-18
    listed $109,900 Active
33. 2024-11-18
    listed $109,900 Active
34. 2024-11-17
    historical $109,900
35. 2024-11-17
    historical $109,900
36. 2024-08-08
    soldstatus $48,500
37. 2005-05-13
    soldstatus $108,000
38. 2005-01-01
    historical
39. 2004-12-01
    listed $95,000
40. 2004-09-01
    historical
41. 2003-09-01
    listed $102,000
42. 2003-03-18
    soldstatus $25,900
43. 2002-12-13
    listed $25,900
44. 2002-07-01
    historical
45. 2002-03-29
    historical
46. 2002-03-14
    listed $50,900
47. 2002-03-14
    listed $50,900
48. 1999-04-30
    soldstatus $85,000
49. 1999-02-09
    listed $84,900
50. 1990-08-17
    soldstatus $21,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $882 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,865 · $155/mo
• Expected delta: +$983/yr (+$82/mo · 111.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,046
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,357
• − Property taxes: −$882
• − Insurance: −$924
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,844
• − Management: −$1,844
• − Depreciation: −$5,379
• Taxable income: $1,816
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$436
• After-tax cash flow: $4,329/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stockbridge Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2633030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $59,009
• Composite: 30.35/100
• National rank: #6261
• State rank: #277 of 540 in MI

Livability — Pinckney

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #8167

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 21,080
• Population (ZIP): 21,080

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,920 people
• By 2030: 209,173 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 216,878 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 217,485 · +7.2%
• By 2075: 217,590 · +7.2%
• By 2100: 197,095 · -2.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Italian 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.9) · D 37.4% · R 61.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -23.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.9 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+29.6 2012: R+23.3 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -285.03%
• Current HPI: 184.9602
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+780.5% since first listed

36 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $184,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $184,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-01-12 Listed $204,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-01-12 Listed $204,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-03-01 Sold (MLS) $30,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-03-01 Sold (MLS) $30,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-02-07 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-02-07 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2025-01-30 Price Changed $75,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-01-29 Price Changed $75,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-01-20 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-01-20 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2025-01-14 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-01-13 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-12-01 Price Changed $99,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-12-01 Price Changed $99,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-11-18 Listed $109,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-11-18 Listed $109,900 REALCOMP
• 2024-11-17 Coming Soon $109,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-11-17 Coming Soon $109,900 REALCOMP
• 2024-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $48,500 Public Records
• 2005-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $108,000 Public Records
• 2005-01-01 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2004-12-01 Listed $95,000 REALCOMP
• 2004-09-01 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2003-09-01 Listed $102,000 REALCOMP
• 2003-03-18 Sold (MLS) $25,900 REALCOMP
• 2002-12-13 Listed $25,900 REALCOMP
• 2002-07-01 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2002-03-29 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2002-03-14 Listed $50,900 REALCOMP
• 2002-03-14 Listed $50,900 REALCOMP
• 1999-04-30 Sold (MLS) $85,000 REALCOMP
• 1999-02-09 Listed $84,900 REALCOMP
• 1990-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $27,500 Public Records
• 1990-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $882 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.