40527 Goldeneye Pl · Pinehurst, TX 77354

$270,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,725 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 5,998 sqft lot $157/sqft · 16% below area Est $320k · 16% under $154/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Audubon community's finest! This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home, complete with an office, is a true gem. The kitchen boasts a custom butcher block island and a built-in beverage refrigerator, perfect for your entertaining needs. Throughout the home, you will discover numerous upgrades, from elegant custom light fixtures to the convenience of a sprinkler system. The designated office space offers a quiet and productive area to work from home. Step outside to your backyard oasis, with direct gated access to a serene walking trail – the perfect escape for outdoor enthusiasts. And here's the cherry on top: the HOA takes care of front yard grass cutting and shrub maintenance, ensuring hassle-free living. Audubon, a masterplanned community, is conveniently located near shopping, dining, entertainment and A-Rated Audubon Elementary School. Look no further and make this your new place to call home!

Key facts

• Direct gated access
• Backyard oasis
• Serene walking trail

Tags

• CUSTOM BUTCHER BLOCK ISLAND
• BUILT-IN BEVERAGE REFRIGERATOR
• DESIGNATED OFFICE SPACE
• BACKYARD OASIS
• DIRECT GATED ACCESS
• SERENE WALKING TRAIL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-321 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (21.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (15.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.0% in Pinehurst — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,350 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, crime D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,289 (21.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.10%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,608
• List price: $270,000
• Delta: -15.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40443 Gerygone Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,614 (-6%)	5mo	$304,900	$189	74
40431 Gerygone Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,614 (-6%)	10mo	$279,900	$173	71
40511 Tyto Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,492 (-14%)	0mo	$235,000	$158	70
40710 Barley Straw Dr	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (+1%)	2mo	$286,490	$164	70
15122 Rose Willow Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,575 (-9%)	2mo	$279,990	$178	63
14878 Whistling Duck Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,950 (+13%)	11mo	$416,900	$214	49
40731 Barley Straw	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,476 (-14%)	2mo	$264,990	$180	48
40504 Warialda Trace Ln	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,820 (+6%)	6mo	$245,000	$135	48
14826 Whistling Duck Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,950 (+13%)	9mo	$419,900	$215	48
14898 Whistling Duck Ln	0.42mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,942 (+13%)	5mo	$369,900	$190	46
14882 Whistling Duck Ln	0.43mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,942 (+13%)	8mo	$460,900	$237	43
14727 Band Tailed Pigeon Ct	0.45mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,942 (+13%)	8mo	$340,900	$176	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $120,778
• Equity at exit: $243,237

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.78×
• Total profit: $361,212
• Equity at exit: $524,551

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,294 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$451 /mo · $5,407/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$154
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $-321

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,700

Max offer price $213,289

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40547 Berylline Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$2,300	$1.31	44d	1	0.08mi
40558 Berylline Ln Unit NA Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,150	$1.43	24d	1	0.11mi
39899 Mill Creek Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1104	$2,726	$2.47	1d	40	0.17mi
14727 Band Tailed Pigeon Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1942	$2,700	$1.39	44d	1	0.44mi
14983 Clay Harvest Rdg Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2173	$2,375	$1.09	44d	1	0.96mi
40839 Hawthorne Glades St Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$2,100	$1.82	44d	1	1.27mi
948 Oak Mist Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	24d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $154 · $1,848/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $270,000 Pending 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $270,000 Pending 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $270,000 Pending 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $270,000 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $270,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $270,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $270,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-04-06
   listed $270,000 Active 920-char remark

   Show marketing remark (920 chars)

   Welcome to the Audubon community's finest! This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home, complete with an office, is a true gem. The kitchen boasts a custom butcher block island and a built-in beverage refrigerator, perfect for your entertaining needs. Throughout the home, you will discover numerous upgrades, from elegant custom light fixtures to the convenience of a sprinkler system. The designated office space offers a quiet and productive area to work from home. Step outside to your backyard oasis, with direct gated access to a serene walking trail – the perfect escape for outdoor enthusiasts. And here's the cherry on top: the HOA takes care of front yard grass cutting and shrub maintenance, ensuring hassle-free living. Audubon, a masterplanned community, is conveniently located near shopping, dining, entertainment and A-Rated Audubon Elementary School. Look no further and make this your new place to call home!

9. 2026-03-31
   historical $2,300
10. 2026-03-30
    historical
11. 2026-02-01
    status Active
12. 2026-01-31
    historical
13. 2026-01-11
    price $2,300
14. 2026-01-10
    price $289,000
15. 2025-11-21
    price $299,000
16. 2025-11-01
    listed $2,350
17. 2025-10-30
    listed $315,000 Active
18. 2023-11-14
    historical
19. 2023-11-01
    price $283,000
20. 2023-11-01
    status Active
21. 2023-10-27
    status Option Pending
22. 2023-10-20
    price $289,000
23. 2023-10-12
    historical $2,200
24. 2023-09-28
    listed $2,200
25. 2023-09-20
    listed $298,000 Active
26. 2021-10-15
    soldstatus Sold
27. 2021-08-16
    status Pending
28. 2021-06-07
    price $279,990
29. 2021-05-07
    price $275,990
30. 2021-05-07
    listed $283,628 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,407 · $451/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,407 · $451/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,523
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$5,407
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,202
• − Management: −$2,202
• − HOA: −$1,848
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$8,464
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,031
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,821/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained single-family home in Pinehurst, TX, offers a good condition with cosmetic updates needed for a fresh look and increased value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space.
• Rental HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency for tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency for tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pinehurst

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1350
• US rank: #23272

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $270,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Rental Removed $2,300 HARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-01-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-11 Price Changed $2,300 HARMLS
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $289,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-01 Listed for Rent $2,350 HARMLS
• 2025-10-30 Listed $315,000 HARMLS
• 2023-11-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-11-01 Price Changed $283,000 HARMLS
• 2023-11-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-10-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-10-20 Price Changed $289,000 HARMLS
• 2023-10-12 Rental Removed $2,200 HARMLS
• 2023-09-28 Listed for Rent $2,200 HARMLS
• 2023-09-20 Listed $298,000 HARMLS
• 2021-10-15 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-08-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-06-07 Price Changed $279,990 HARMLS
• 2021-05-07 Price Changed $275,990 HARMLS
• 2021-05-07 Listed $283,628 HARMLS

Property tax history

+78.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,407 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.