3109 Mission Grove Dr Unit D · Palm Harbor, FL 34684

$118,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 806 sqft · Condo · 215 Days on market

Built 1976 $778/mo HOA · 41% of rent ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Bright & Open 2-Bedroom Villa in a Highly Desirable 55+ Active Community Welcome to this light-filled 2 bedroom, 2 full bath villa offering an inviting open floor plan and easy-maintenance tile flooring throughout. Enjoy peaceful mornings and relaxing evenings in the enclosed lanai overlooking a beautifully landscaped green space. From the front of the home—and the front bedroom—you’ll appreciate serene pond views that enhance the home’s tranquil setting. Convenience is built in with a private carport and an attached storage closet, providing extra space for bikes, beach gear, tools, and more. Located in a sought-after 55+ active community, this villa includes

Key facts

• Serene pond views
• Open floor plan
• Private carport

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• ENCLOSED LANAI
• LANDSCAPED GREEN SPACE
• SERENE POND VIEWS
• PRIVATE CARPORT
• ATTACHED STORAGE CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions available; Unit is unfurnished; Floor number: 1
• Financial info: Monthly condo fee: $614; Total monthly fees reported: $778; Total annual fees reported: $9,336; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA required (Frankly Coastal - Jean Chadwick); Monthly HOA fee: $164 (includes cable TV, internet, management, maintenance of structure and grounds, pest control, pool and recreational facilities, sewer, trash, water, common area taxes, escrow reserves); Community pool, clubhouse, tennis courts, shuffleboard, sidewalks; Buyer/association approval required; Senior community; No pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned covered parking; Carport (1 space); Golf cart parking; Guest parking; Reserved parking; Ground-level parking; Other parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Residential condominium; One story; South-facing; Completed condition
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Building contains storage
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch; Outdoor lighting; Sidewalks; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Living room/dining room combo; Split bedroom layout; Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup inside; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $118k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-96 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $105k (11.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $118k).
• Recommended offer: $104k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.1% in Palm Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#95 in FL, #1,470 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, housing A+, commute A; Watch: amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 371 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $819 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 215 days — a 12% lower offer ($104k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 41% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,280 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 215 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.46%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-30,363
• Equity at exit: $17,669

10-year hold

• IRR: -79.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.62×
• Total profit: $-53,755
• Equity at exit: $10,246

Cash invested: $33,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34684

• Rents YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 371
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,900 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$621
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$148 /mo · $1,778/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$778
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-96

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,021

Max offer price $104,644

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,625
• Closing costs: $3,555
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2833 Orange Tree Cir N Unit C Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$1,845	$1.92	24d	1	0.37mi
2700 Nebraska Ave Unit 4-106 Palm Harbor, FL	1.0	1.0	730	$1,400	$1.92	24d	1	0.52mi
2690 Coral Landings Blvd Palm Harbor, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1135	$1,700	$1.50	11d	2	0.66mi
3462 Maclaren Dr Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1076	$2,150	$2.00	7d	1	0.68mi
2575 Pine Ridge Way S Unit A2 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,590	$1.44	24d	1	0.68mi
2523 Pine Ridge Way S Unit C2 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1038	$1,750	$1.69	24d	1	0.70mi
2803 Northcote Dr Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1050	$2,300	$2.19	21d	1	1.17mi
212 Katherine Blvd Palm Harbor, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1164	$1,775	$1.52	1d	15	1.24mi
3975 Country Place Ln Palm Harbor, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	788	$1,637	$2.08	1d	16	1.27mi
2764 Kavalier Dr Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1088	$2,300	$2.11	17d	1	1.27mi
2764 Kavalier Dr Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1088	$2,300	$2.11	14d	1	1.27mi
2764 Kavalier Dr Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1088	$2,300	$2.11	24d	1	1.27mi
3781 Lake Shore Dr Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1055	$2,500	$2.37	24d	1	1.38mi
220 Calibre Downs Ln Palm Harbor, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1052	$2,299	$2.19	24d	13	1.42mi
31790 US Highway 19 N Palm Harbor, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	842	$2,066	$2.45	11d	16	1.45mi
1350 Seagate Dr Palm Harbor, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1044	$1,913	$1.83	1d	19	1.46mi
2678 Markham Ct Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	923	$1,999	$2.17	24d	1	1.48mi
3726 Albion Ct Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1060	$2,350	$2.22	13d	1	1.48mi
3726 Albion Ct Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1060	$2,350	$2.22	13d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $778 · $9,336/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $118,500 Active 215 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $118,500 Active 214 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $118,500 Active 213 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $118,500 Active 212 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $118,500 Active 210 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $118,500 Active 206 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $118,500 Active 205 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $118,500 Active 204 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $118,500 Active 201 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $118,500 Active 200 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,900 Active 198 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 197 DOM
13. 2026-04-17
    price $124,900
14. 2026-04-15
    status Active
15. 2026-04-14
    historical
16. 2026-03-27
    price $129,500
17. 2026-03-02
    price $134,500
18. 2026-02-11
    price $145,000
19. 2026-01-15
    price $149,000
20. 2026-01-09
    price $150,000
21. 2025-11-14
    listed $159,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,803
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,638
• − Property taxes: −$1,778
• − Insurance: −$592
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,824
• − Management: −$1,824
• − HOA: −$9,336
• − Depreciation: −$3,447
• Taxable loss: −$2,637
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$633
• After-tax cash flow: $-516/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Harbor

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #95
• US rank: #1470

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A Cost of living B Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Harbor, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 79,072
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,029
• Household income: $72,145
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1495.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -296.23%
• Current HPI: 301.651
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.17%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-21.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $124,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $129,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $134,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $149,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-14 Listed $159,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid