Embry Plan · Freeport, FL 32439

$420,400

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,001 sqft · SingleFamily · 169 Days on market

Good condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Embry, a new home floor plan at Ashton Park Phase III in Freeport, Florida. The Embry plan is a 5-bedroom, 3.5-bathroom two-story home with over 2800 Sq. Ft. and a two-car garage. As you step inside, you're greeted by a versatile flex space right off the foyer-perfect for a bright home office, a formal dining room, or a cozy reading nook. The open-concept design flows seamlessly into the heart of the home: a stylish kitchen featuring sleek stainless-steel appliances, crisp white cabinetry, and a massive center island. This space connects directly to an expansive great room, creating the ultimate hub for daily life and entertaining guests.

Key facts

• Double vanity
• Stylish kitchen
• Expansive great room

Tags

• STYLISH KITCHEN
• MASSIVE CENTER ISLAND
• EXPANSIVE GREAT ROOM
• MAIN-LEVEL PRIMARY SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• DOUBLE VANITY

🏗️ New construction. The $420,400 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $422,334.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $420k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $316 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $409k (2.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $370k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.9% in Freeport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#520 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Walton (rural): math 62% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #10 of 73 in FL (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Freeport Elementary School (math 50% / reading 57%, grade C, #949 of 2,144 statewide, top 45%, 1,123 students, 55% FRL); Emerald Coast Middle School (math 70% / reading 65%, grade A-, #77 of 571 statewide, top 14%, 868 students, 24% FRL); South Walton High School (math 61% / reading 73%, grade B, #69 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,235 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 1545 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,883 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (1,322 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,095/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($83k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Walton County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($370k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $369,952 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.21%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $422,334
• List price: $420,400
• Delta: -0.46%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
42 Foxtrail Run	0.12mi	5/3.5	3,001 (0%)	1mo	$375,000	$125	93
297 Perimeter Pl	0.22mi	5/3.0	3,001 (0%)	16mo	$499,900	$167	74
50 Sweet Blossom	0.21mi	5/3.0	3,113 (+4%)	22mo	$540,000	$173	64
136 Perimeter Pl Lot 26	0.13mi	5/3.0	3,239 (+8%)	22mo	$649,000	$200	60
77 Perimeter Pl	0.19mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,576 (-14%)	9mo	$535,000	$208	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-54,713
• Equity at exit: $62,971

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-47,230
• Equity at exit: $36,516

Cash invested: $118,254 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 6 active · 4 under contract
• Months of supply: 18.0 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $449,500 ($189/sqft)
• Median days on market: 188 d
• This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -25.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32439

• Home prices YoY: -4.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 1545
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,095 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,215
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$528 /mo · $6,335/yr
• Insurance: −$176
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$860
• Net cashflow: $316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,695

Max offer price $422,334

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $608	-5% $462	+0% $316	+5% $170	+10% $25
Rent	-10% $-7	-5% $155	+0% $316	+5% $478	+10% $640
Rate	-1.0pp $529	-0.5pp $424	base $316	+0.5pp $207	+1.0pp $96

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $105,584
• Closing costs: $12,670
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
157 Bent Oak Dr Freeport, FL	5.0	3.0	2142	$4,500	$2.10	10d	1	0.65mi
157 Bent Oak Dr Freeport, FL	5.0	3.0	2142	$4,500	$2.10	51d	1	0.65mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $469,000

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: New construction plan (Embry)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 3001

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan name: Embry

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $420,400 Active 169 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $420,400 Active 168 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $420,400 Active 167 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $420,400 Active 166 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $420,400 Active 165 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $420,400 Active 163 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $420,400 Active 162 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $420,400 Active 161 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $420,400 Active 160 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $420,400 Active 159 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $420,400 Active 158 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $420,400 Active 157 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $420,400 Active 156 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $420,400 Active 155 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $420,400 Active 154 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $420,400 Active 153 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $420,400 Active 152 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    price $420,400 Active 151 DOM
19. 2026-10-21
    days on market $416,900 Active 151 DOM
20. 2026-10-20
    days on market $416,900 Active 150 DOM
21. 2026-10-19
    days on market $416,900 Active 149 DOM
22. 2026-10-18
    days on market $416,900 Active 148 DOM
23. 2026-10-17
    days on market $416,900 Active 147 DOM
24. 2026-10-16
    days on market $416,900 Active 146 DOM
25. 2026-10-15
    days on market $416,900 Active 145 DOM
26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $416,900 Active 144 DOM
27. 2026-10-13
    days on market $416,900 Active 143 DOM
28. 2026-10-12
    days on market $416,900 Active 142 DOM
29. 2026-10-11
    days on market $416,900 Active 141 DOM
30. 2026-10-10
    days on market $416,900 Active 140 DOM
31. 2026-10-09
    days on market $416,900 Active 139 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    days on market $416,900 Active 138 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $416,900 Active 137 DOM
34. 2026-10-07
    price $416,900 Active 136 DOM
35. 2026-10-06
    days on market $413,400 Active 136 DOM
36. 2026-10-05
    days on market $413,400 Active 135 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $413,400 Active 134 DOM
38. 2026-10-04
    days on market $413,400 Active 133 DOM
39. 2026-10-02
    days on market $413,400 Active 132 DOM
40. 2026-10-01
    days on market $413,400 Active 131 DOM
41. 2026-09-30
    days on market $413,400 Active 130 DOM
42. 2026-09-29
    days on market $413,400 Active 129 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $413,400 Active 127 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $413,400 Active 126 DOM
45. 2026-09-26
    price $413,400 Active 125 DOM
46. 2026-09-25
    days on market $409,900 Active 125 DOM
47. 2026-09-24
    days on market $409,900 Active 124 DOM
48. 2026-09-24
    days on market $409,900 Active 123 DOM
49. 2026-09-22
    days on market $409,900 Active 122 DOM
50. 2026-09-21
    days on market $409,900 Active 121 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,140
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,657
• − Property taxes: −$6,335
• − Insurance: −$2,112
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,931
• − Management: −$3,931
• − Depreciation: −$12,286
• Taxable loss: −$3,113
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$747
• After-tax cash flow: $4,544/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This new construction home in Freeport, Florida, is move-in ready with good condition and potential for further value enhancement through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Upgrading appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and increase the home's value. ↑
• Rental Adding a smart thermostat — Smart thermostats can reduce energy costs and attract tech-savvy tenants. ↑
• Both Adding a smart security system — A smart security system can increase property value and attract buyers/tenants who prioritize safety and security. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 59/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Freeport Elementary School C FL #949/2,144 Nat'l #10,846/41,679 Middle Freeport Middle School B FL #157/571 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High South Walton High School B FL #69/667 Nat'l #2,514/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walton
• NCES district ID: 1201980
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,794
• Composite: 52.03/100
• National rank: #1634
• State rank: #10 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Freeport

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #520
• US rank: #9579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Freeport, FL
• County: Walton County · 80,014 people
• City population: 15,328
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,328
• Household income: $83,227
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Walton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,014 people
• By 2030: 88,120 · +10.1%
• By 2040: 103,537 · +29.4%
• By 2050: 117,034 · +46.3%
• By 2075: 143,901 · +79.8%
• By 2100: 155,138 · +93.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Native American 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Walton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.8) · D 20.7% · R 78.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.0pp toward R · 2008: -45.8pp · 2024: -57.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.8 2020: R+51.7 2016: R+56.1 2012: R+52.0 2008: R+45.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.18%
• Current HPI: 350.4692
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.40%
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $469,000

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: New construction plan (Embry)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 3001

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan name: Embry