144 Maria Ln · Gold Key Lake, PA 18328

$185,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1985 0.37 ac lot Est $194k · at est. $89/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ranch close to pool and lake, this ranch features 3 living room with cathedral ceiling and fireplace dining area and kitchen 3 bedrooms close to the pool and lake

Key facts

• Community amenities
• Updated floors
• Tennis courts

Tags

• UPDATED FLOORS
• DIRECT ACCESS TO THE WATER
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• POOL
• TENNIS COURTS
• PLAYGROUND

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association; Community pool; Tennis courts; Gated community; Clubhouse; Lake access; Fishing; Association fee $1,072 annually (about $89.33/month)

Exterior

• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: No common walls
• Exterior features: Wooded lot; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Fireplace insert heating; Baseboard heating; Has heating
• Interior features: Fireplace with wood-burning insert; Electric range; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $119 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $182k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#789 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 211 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $102k; list at $185k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $182,225 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.76%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $193,536
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
227 Lake Dr	0.10mi	2/1.0 (-1)	900 (+4%)	8mo	$114,000	$127	77
261 Marcel Dr	0.38mi	3/1.0	840 (-3%)	17mo	$179,000	$213	63
136 Lake Dr	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (0%)	9mo	$195,000	$226	62
107 Brigitte Ct	0.33mi	2/1.0 (-1)	972 (+12%)	2mo	$145,000	$149	58
103 Claudine Dr	0.31mi	3/1.0	912 (+6%)	23mo	$210,000	$230	57
119 Michele Ln	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	928 (+7%)	4mo	$219,000	$236	54
182 N Lake Shore Dr	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	768 (-11%)	18mo	$180,000	$234	47
208 Lake Dr	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	736 (-15%)	18mo	$165,000	$224	47
108 Hickory Rd	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (+11%)	7mo	$120,000	$125	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $108,428
• Equity at exit: $166,663

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.05×
• Total profit: $313,490
• Equity at exit: $359,414

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18328

• Home prices YoY: 18.1%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,875 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$226 /mo · $2,710/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$89
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,724

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $224	-5% $172	+0% $119	+5% $67	+10% $14
Rent	-10% $-29	-5% $45	+0% $119	+5% $193	+10% $267
Rate	-1.0pp $212	-0.5pp $166	base $119	+0.5pp $71	+1.0pp $22

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
143 Nichecronk Rd Dingmans Ferry, PA	3.0	1.5	1024	$1,950	$1.90	2d	1	1.40mi
143 Nichecronk Rd Dingmans Ferry, PA	3.0	1.5	1024	$1,800	$1.76	44d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $89 · $1,068/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $185,000 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $185,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-05-23
    listed $185,000 Active
16. 2021-12-16
    soldstatus $102,500
17. 2021-12-13
    soldstatus 162-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Ranch close to pool and lake, this ranch features 3 living room with cathedral ceiling and fireplace dining area and kitchen 3 bedrooms close to the pool and lake, Beds Description: 2+Bed1st, Baths: 1 Bath Level 1, Eating Area: Dining Area

18. 2021-12-13
    soldstatus $102,500 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Ranch close to pool and lake, this ranch features 3 living room with cathedral ceiling and fireplace dining area and kitchen 3 bedrooms close to the pool and lake, Beds Description: 2+Bed1st, Baths: 1 Bath Level 1, Eating Area: Dining Area

19. 2021-05-23
    listed $110,000 162-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Ranch close to pool and lake, this ranch features 3 living room with cathedral ceiling and fireplace dining area and kitchen 3 bedrooms close to the pool and lake, Beds Description: 2+Bed1st, Baths: 1 Bath Level 1, Eating Area: Dining Area

20. 2021-05-23
    listed $110,000 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Ranch close to pool and lake, this ranch features 3 living room with cathedral ceiling and fireplace dining area and kitchen 3 bedrooms close to the pool and lake, Beds Description: 2+Bed1st, Baths: 1 Bath Level 1, Eating Area: Dining Area

21. 2005-04-14
    soldstatus $90,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,710 · $226/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,816 · $235/mo
• Expected delta: +$107/yr (+$9/mo · 3.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,500
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,710
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,800
• − Management: −$1,800
• − HOA: −$1,068
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$1,547
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$371
• After-tax cash flow: $1,802/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Delaware Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207530
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,202
• Composite: 46.95/100
• National rank: #2359
• State rank: #121 of 539 in PA

Livability — Gold Key Lake

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #789
• US rank: #7969

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,061

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 6% Romanian 6% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 38.13%
• Current HPI: 248.4494
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+104.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $185,000 PWMLS
• 2021-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $102,500 Public Records
• 2021-12-13 Sold (MLS) $102,500 PWMLS
• 2021-12-13 Sold (MLS) — PWMLS
• 2021-05-23 Listed $110,000 PWMLS
• 2021-05-23 Listed $110,000 PWMLS
• 2005-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $90,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,710 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.