5154 Hess Rd · Buena Vista, MI 48601

$89,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1951 1.25 ac lot Est $76k · 17% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.6/30.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

5154 Hess Rd, Saginaw, MI 48601 Nestled on a generous 1.25-acre parcel, this single-story 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home delivers surprising charm at an accessible price point. Mature trees frame a beautiful yard bursting with pretty flowers, creating a picturesque setting that feels worlds away from the everyday hustle — yet remains centrally located near everything you need. Natural hardwood floors grace the kitchen and two bedrooms, lending warmth and timeless character to a layout that flows effortlessly from room to room. Everything lives on one level, making daily routines simple and stress-free. The kitchen comes equipped with a stove and refrigerator, while a washer and dryer are also included — meaning you can settle in without the added expense of purchasing major appliances. A detached one-car garage handles vehicle storage or workshop needs, and an additional shed provides even more room for tools, seasonal gear, or lawn equipment. With 960 square feet of smartly arranged living space across that sprawling lot, you're getting remarkable land value that's increasingly rare in the Saginaw area. Veterans Memorial Park offers nearby green space for recreation, while Bridgeport High School and everyday essentials along East Holland Road are just a short drive away. The charming town of Frankenmuth sits only minutes east for weekend adventures. Whether you're a first-time buyer building equity, an investor seeking rental income, or someone ready to embrace simplified living, this property presents an outstanding opportunity you won't want to overlook.

Key facts

• 1.25-acre parcel
• Nearby green space
• Additional shed

Tags

• 1.25-ACRE PARCEL
• NATURAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• DETACHED ONE-CAR GARAGE
• ADDITIONAL SHED
• NEARBY GREEN SPACE
• SHORT DRIVE TO ESSENTIALS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax information provided (amount excluded per instructions)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Parking: Detached assigned garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Wood siding; Block foundation; Built with a shingle or unspecified roof (roof not specified)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Lot approximately 1.25 acres (dimensions 198 x 330)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater (appliance listed)
• Bedrooms: Total of 6 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Radiant heating; Ceiling fans; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Crawl space basement with block foundation
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $167 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($897 rent vs $89k).
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 11.9% in Buena Vista — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#615 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Bridgeport-Spaulding Community School District (suburban): math 7% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #513 of 540 in MI (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 201 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $89k implies a 134% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $89,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.06%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $75,840
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5050 Carnegie St	0.20mi	3/1.0	988 (+3%)	2mo	$97,000	$98	84
5032 Akron St	0.34mi	3/1.0	960 (0%)	4mo	$80,000	$83	81
5057 Akron St	0.28mi	3/1.0	960 (0%)	15mo	$85,000	$89	74
5025 Peterson St	0.26mi	2/1.0 (-1)	884 (-8%)	1mo	$29,500	$33	69
5000 Hess Rd	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	928 (-3%)	14mo	$97,900	$105	64
1726 Prospect St	0.33mi	3/1.0	864 (-10%)	6mo	$33,900	$39	63
1800 Prospect St	0.39mi	3/1.0	864 (-10%)	15mo	$62,000	$72	53
1801 Ribble St	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,056 (+10%)	14mo	$83,900	$79	53
1575 Mack Rd	0.37mi	3/1.5	900 (-6%)	22mo	$20,000	$22	52
1690 Prospect St	0.31mi	3/1.0	864 (-10%)	22mo	$85,000	$98	51
1890 Prospect St	0.45mi	3/1.0	864 (-10%)	14mo	$57,000	$66	50
3285 Bertha Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	7mo	$63,500	$60	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-3,787
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $10,307
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48601

• Home prices YoY: -32.1%
• Active inventory: 201
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $897 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $445/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$188
• Net cashflow: $167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $685

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $218	-5% $193	+0% $167	+5% $142	+10% $117
Rent	-10% $97	-5% $132	+0% $167	+5% $203	+10% $238
Rate	-1.0pp $212	-0.5pp $190	base $167	+0.5pp $144	+1.0pp $121

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2800 Gemini St Unit GE2800 Saginaw, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$920	$0.96	44d	1	1.23mi
2564 Apollo Dr Unit AP2564 Saginaw, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$883	$0.92	44d	1	1.44mi
2554 Apollo Dr Unit AP2554 Saginaw, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$883	$0.92	44d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-16
   listed $89,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $445 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $908 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$463/yr (+$39/mo · 103.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,760
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$445
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$861
• − Management: −$861
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $574
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$138
• After-tax cash flow: $1,872/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bridgeport-Spaulding Community School District
• NCES district ID: 2606780
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,403
• Composite: 10.13/100
• National rank: #9800
• State rank: #513 of 540 in MI

Livability — Buena Vista

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #615
• US rank: #20603

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buena Vista, MI
• City population: 32,069
• Population (ZIP): 32,069

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.46%
• Current HPI: 197.3359
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+134.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $89,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-15 Listed $89,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records
• 2019-07-29 Sold (MLS) $38,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-07-29 Sold (MLS) $38,000 REALCOMP
• 2019-06-10 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2019-06-10 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-06-03 Listed $38,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-06-03 Listed $38,000 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $445 · -66.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.