9661 Ashworth Pl · Connerton, FL
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 8/10 · Major
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $947 – $1,759
Heat risk 10/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 109°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 25 days/yr
Wind risk 10/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 1 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +9.8/15.0
- Cash flow +9.6/30.0
- Schools +5.7/10.0
- Condition / age +4.8/5.0
- 1% rule +4.5/10.0
- Appreciation +4.2/10.0
- Livability +3.3/5.0
- DSCR +2.7/10.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
$269,000
9661 Ashworth Pl · Connerton, FL 34637
3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,601 sqft · Townhouse
public records
· 51 Days on market
Built 2023
1,980 sqft lot
Garage
$168/sqft
· 5% below area
Est $284k · 5% under
$304/mo HOA · 12% of rent
↓ 11% since listing
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Under Construction. A porch leads into the first level of this two-story townhome where the family room, dining room and kitchen are situated among an open floorplan that maximizes the footprint of the interior. A lanai at the back is the perfect spot to enjoy a morning cup of coffee. Three bedrooms, all situated upstairs, complete this home. Connerton is a masterplan community with new single-family homes, townhomes and villas for sale in idyllic Land O' Lakes, FL. Residents have access to exciting amenities, including two pools - a resort-style pool with a splash park and a competitive lap pool, multiple sport courts, miles of trails for walking, jogging, and biking, as well as an onsite elementary school. The local area boasts extensive shopping, dining and entertainment venues. Interior photos disclosed are different from the actual model being built.
Key facts
- Dog park
- Clubhouse
- Tennis courts
Tags
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Costco
Walmart
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $269k. Condition is rated excellent.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-180 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (11.8% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $256k (4.7% below list).
- Recommended offer: $237k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
- Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.6% in Connerton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 66/100 on livability (#596 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
- Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Zoned schools: Connerton Elementary School (math 48% / reading 57%, grade C-, #976 of 2,144 statewide, top 46%, 958 students, 39% FRL); Pine View Middle School (math 63% / reading 52%, grade B, #157 of 571 statewide, top 28%, 1,170 students, 32% FRL); Land O' Lakes High School (math 56% / reading 64%, grade C+, #106 of 667 statewide, top 16%, 2,248 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
- Market conditions: 439 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 76d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 81% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer
$237,247
(11.8% below list)
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.95% ✗
- Cap rate
- 5.49%
- Cash-on-cash
- -2.86%
- DSCR
- 0.87
- GRM
- 8.7
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $283,610
- List price
- $269,000
- Delta
- -5.15%
- Verdict
- FAIR
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21850 Lyonia Ln | 0.08mi | 3/2.5 | 1,601 (0%) | 0mo | $250,000 | $156 | 94 |
| 21861 Adriatic Ln | 0.12mi | 3/2.5 | 1,601 (0%) | 5mo | $315,000 | $197 | 88 |
| 21811 Lyonia Ln | 0.03mi | 3/2.5 | 1,601 (0%) | 14mo | $289,000 | $181 | 84 |
| 21857 Adriatic Ln | 0.11mi | 3/2.5 | 1,601 (0%) | 16mo | $305,000 | $191 | 80 |
| 9669 Ashworth Pl | 0.01mi | 3/2.5 | 1,861 (+16%) | 13mo | $341,150 | $183 | 62 |
| 9683 Ashworth Pl | 0.02mi | 3/2.5 | 1,861 (+16%) | 17mo | $335,000 | $180 | 58 |
| 8953 Gallantree Pl | 0.86mi | 3/2.5 | 1,601 (0%) | 12mo | $300,000 | $187 | 53 |
| 8845 Gallantree Pl | 0.92mi | 3/2.5 | 1,861 (+16%) | 1mo | $300,000 | $161 | 38 |
| 8936 Coqui Song Ln | 1.06mi | 3/2.5 | 1,851 (+16%) | 2mo | $307,290 | $166 | 36 |
| 8859 Coqui Song Ln | 1.11mi | 3/2.5 | 1,851 (+16%) | 7mo | $309,990 | $167 | 32 |
| 9443 Runaway Breeze Dr | 0.78mi | 3/2.5 | 1,851 (+16%) | 16mo | $538,400 | $291 | 25 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-1.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- -12.3%
- Equity multiple
- 0.50×
- Total profit
- $-37,922
- Equity at exit
- $58,050
10-year hold
- IRR
- -4.9%
- Equity multiple
- 0.58×
- Total profit
- $-31,339
- Equity at exit
- $55,268
Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.
Buyer's market
Market conditions
within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 10 active · 3 under contract
- Months of supply
- 20.0 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $295,000 ($171/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 68 d
- This list price
- 20% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +3.9% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 34637
- Home prices YoY
- -1.2%
- Active inventory
- 439
- Price-to-rent
- 8.7×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $2,563 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,411
- Tax from tax record
- −$378 /mo · $4,538/yr
- Insurance
- −$112
- HOA
- −$304
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$538
- Net cashflow
- $-180
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$2,791
Max offer price
$237,247
Occupancy floor
—
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-27 | -5% $-104 | +0% $-180 | +5% $-256 | +10% $-332 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-382 | -5% $-281 | +0% $-180 | +5% $-78 | +10% $23 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-44 | -0.5pp $-111 | base $-180 | +0.5pp $-249 | +1.0pp $-320 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $67,250
- Closing costs
- $8,070
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 27 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21818 Lyonia Ln Land O Lakes, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1601 | $2,250 | $1.41 | 110d | 1 | 0.05mi |
| 21831 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1601 | $1,995 | $1.25 | 94d | 1 | 0.07mi |
| 21831 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1601 | $1,995 | $1.25 | 100d | 1 | 0.07mi |
| 21831 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1601 | $1,945 | $1.21 | 77d | 1 | 0.07mi |
| 9750 Campanula Ct Land O Lakes, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2208 | $2,700 | $1.22 | 120d | 1 | 0.08mi |
| 21881 Lyonia Ln Land O Lakes, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1601 | $2,000 | $1.25 | 4d | 1 | 0.09mi |
| 21869 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1601 | $2,400 | $1.50 | 120d | 1 | 0.11mi |
| 9676 Nyssa St Land O Lakes, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1601 | $2,050 | $1.28 | 80d | 1 | 0.12mi |
| 9890 Red Bay Loop Land O Lakes, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1949 | $2,595 | $1.33 | 78d | 1 | 0.22mi |
| 9967 Red Bay Loop Land O Lakes, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1968 | $2,199 | $1.12 | 5d | 1 | 0.29mi |
| 8897 Flourish Dr Land O Lakes, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1614 | $2,149 | $1.33 | 10d | 1 | 0.74mi |
| 21816 Crest Meadow Dr Land O Lakes, FL | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2061 | $3,200 | $1.55 | 64d | 1 | 0.74mi |
| 9094 Gallantree Pl Land O Lakes, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1601 | $2,100 | $1.31 | 10d | 1 | 0.76mi |
| 9001 Gallantree Pl Land O Lakes, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1601 | $2,100 | $1.31 | 62d | 1 | 0.83mi |
| 8948 Gallantree Pl Land O Lakes, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1601 | $2,050 | $1.28 | 29d | 1 | 0.88mi |
| 8948 Gallantree Pl Land O Lakes, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1601 | $2,050 | $1.28 | 32d | 1 | 0.88mi |
| 8948 Gallantree Pl Land O Lakes, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1601 | $2,145 | $1.34 | 44d | 1 | 0.88mi |
| 8938 Gallantree Pl Land O Lakes, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1851 | $2,550 | $1.38 | 79d | 1 | 0.90mi |
| 8827 Sentiero Dr Land O Lakes, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2050 | $2,795 | $1.36 | 78d | 1 | 0.90mi |
| 8827 Sentiero Dr Land O Lakes, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2050 | $2,795 | $1.36 | 74d | 1 | 0.90mi |
| 8862 Gallantree Pl Unit 8862-Townhouse Land O' Lakes, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1601 | $2,195 | $1.37 | 108d | 1 | 0.94mi |
| 9344 Bella Vita Cir Land O Lakes, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2072 | $2,900 | $1.40 | 75d | 1 | 0.96mi |
| 9645 Carabiner Way Land O' Lakes, FL | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1870 | $2,500 | $1.34 | 77d | 1 | 1.01mi |
| 8879 Coqui Song Ln Land O' Lakes, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1851 | $2,300 | $1.24 | 44d | 1 | 1.11mi |
| 22310 Blazing Star Run Land O Lakes, FL | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1870 | $2,450 | $1.31 | 75d | 1 | 1.27mi |
| 22430 Blazing Star Run Land O' Lakes, FL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1936 | $2,550 | $1.32 | 40d | 1 | 1.32mi |
| 9436 Scouter Bee Pl Land O' Lakes, FL | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1951 | $2,350 | $1.20 | 100d | 1 | 1.40mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Lease restrictions apply
- Financial info
- CDD existsOther annual assessment: $1,379
- HOA & community
- HOA required (Folio Association M)Monthly HOA fee $304.72Association approval requiredPets allowed (up to 100 lbs)Association amenities: Other
Exterior
- Parking
- Attached garage with 1 garage space
- Utilities
- Public waterPublic sewerCable connectedElectricity connected
- Home design
- TownhouseResidential propertyTwo levelsFaces northeast
- Construction
- Block and stucco constructionShingle roofBlock foundationBuilding number 9661
- Exterior features
- Sliding doorsAsphalt road accessSmall lot (approx. 0.05 acres)
Interior
- Kitchen
- DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveRange
- Bedrooms
- 3 bedrooms
- Flooring
- CarpetLaminate
- Bathrooms
- 2 full baths1 half bath
- Heating & cooling
- Electric heatingCentral air conditioning
- Interior features
- Ceiling fans
- Laundry & utility
- Indoor laundry
HOA detail $304/mo · $3,648/yr
- Likely covers
- pool
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-09-23days on market $269,000 Active 51 DOM
-
2026-09-22days on market $269,000 Active 50 DOM
-
2026-09-21days on market $269,000 Active 49 DOM
-
2026-09-20days on market $269,000 Active 48 DOM
-
2026-09-19days on market $269,000 Active 47 DOM
-
2026-09-18days on market $269,000 Active 46 DOM
-
2026-09-16days on market $269,000 Active 44 DOM
-
2026-09-15days on market $269,000 Active 43 DOM
-
2026-09-14days on market $269,000 Active 42 DOM
-
2026-09-13days on market $269,000 Active 41 DOM
-
2026-09-12pricedays on market $269,000 Active 40 DOM
-
2026-09-11days on market $285,000 Active 39 DOM
-
2026-09-05days on market $285,000 Active 33 DOM
-
2026-09-04days on market $285,000 Active 32 DOM
-
2026-09-03days on market $285,000 Active 31 DOM
-
2026-08-31days on market $285,000 Active 28 DOM
-
2026-08-30days on market $285,000 Active 27 DOM
-
2026-08-29days on market $285,000 Active 26 DOM
-
2026-08-28days on market $285,000 Active 25 DOM
-
2026-08-27days on market $285,000 Active 24 DOM
-
2026-08-26days on market $285,000 Active 23 DOM
-
2026-08-25days on market $285,000 Active 22 DOM
-
2026-08-24days on market $285,000 Active 21 DOM
-
2026-08-23days on market $285,000 Active 20 DOM
-
2026-08-22days on market $285,000 Active 19 DOM
-
2026-08-21days on market $285,000 Active 18 DOM
-
2026-08-20days on market $285,000 Active 17 DOM
-
2026-08-19days on market $285,000 Active 16 DOM
-
2026-08-18days on market $285,000 Active 15 DOM
-
2026-08-17days on market $285,000 Active 14 DOM
-
2026-08-16days on market $285,000 Active 13 DOM
-
2026-08-15days on market $285,000 Active 12 DOM
-
2026-08-14days on market $285,000 Active 11 DOM
-
2026-08-13days on market $285,000 Active 10 DOM
-
2026-08-12days on market $285,000 Active 9 DOM
-
2026-08-11days on market $285,000 Active 8 DOM
-
2026-08-10days on market $285,000 Active 7 DOM
-
2026-08-09days on market $285,000 Active 6 DOM
-
2026-08-08days on market $285,000 Active 5 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $285,000 Active 3 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $285,000 Active 2 DOM
-
2026-07-31pricedays on market $285,000 Active 1 DOM
-
2026-07-28days on market $305,000 Active 123 DOM
-
2026-07-26days on market $305,000 Active 121 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $305,000 Active 119 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $305,000 Active 118 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $305,000 Active 117 DOM
-
2026-07-21days on market $305,000 Active 116 DOM
-
2026-07-20days on market $305,000 Active 115 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $305,000 Active 112 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $4,538 · $378/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $4,538 · $378/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 8/10 Severe
- Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $30,762
- − Mortgage interest
- −$15,068
- − Property taxes
- −$4,538
- − Insurance
- −$1,345
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,461
- − Management
- −$2,461
- − HOA
- −$3,648
- − Depreciation
- −$7,825
- Taxable loss
- −$6,585
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$1,580
- After-tax cash flow
- $-577/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos
95/100
None rehab
This move-in ready townhome in Connerton, FL, offers a perfect blend of style, comfort, and convenience with a fresh paint job and landscaping improvements recommended to maximize its value.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
- Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/renters. ↑
- Both Add a smart home system — A smart home system can increase the property's appeal and value by offering convenience and energy efficiency. ↑
D
Composite school gradezoned avg 57/100
Zoned Schools
Elementary
Connerton Elementary School
C-
FL #976/2,144
Nat'l #11,114/41,679
Middle
Pine View Middle School
B
FL #157/571
Nat'l #2,146/14,009
High
Land O' Lakes High School
C+
FL #106/667
Nat'l #3,545/17,239
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Pasco
- NCES district ID
- 1201530
- Math proficiency
- 50% ▼ -10.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 52% ▼ -5.00%
- Median HH income
- $45,039
- Composite
- 43.14/100
- National rank
- #3074
- State rank
- #32 of 73 in FL
C
Composite livability gradescore 66/100
Livability — Connerton
- Score
- 66/100
- State rank
- #596
- US rank
- #11437
Category grades
Amenities F
Commute F
Cost of living C+
Crime A+
Employment A+
Housing A+
Health & safety F
User ratings A
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Connerton, FL
- County
- Pasco County · 570,045 people
- City population
- 11,398
- Metro
- Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 13,049
- Household income
- $115,214
- Rent vs Own
Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 570,045 people
- By 2030
- 605,844 · +6.3%
- By 2040
- 674,806 · +18.4%
- By 2050
- 736,022 · +29.1%
- By 2075
- 862,900 · +51.4%
- By 2100
- 906,364 · +59.0%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (70%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 5%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 5% Italian 3% Iranian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 8% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Pasco
- 2024 margin
- Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -1.54%
- Current HPI
- 126.1415
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
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| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
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| Retail | 1 | $60B |
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| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
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| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
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| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
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Price history
-10.7% since first listed6 events — show timeline
- 2026-07-30 Listed $285,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-07-29 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-03-27 Listed $305,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2023-05-26 Sold (MLS) $319,130 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2023-04-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2023-04-04 Listed $319,130 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
Property tax history
+118.9%/yrLatest (2025): $4,538 · -5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…