9661 Ashworth Pl · Connerton, FL 34637

$305,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,601 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 86 Days on market

Built 2023 Excellent condition 1,980 sqft lot Est $392k · 22% under $304/mo HOA · 12% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Under Construction. A porch leads into the first level of this two-story townhome where the family room, dining room and kitchen are situated among an open floorplan that maximizes the footprint of the interior. A lanai at the back is the perfect spot to enjoy a morning cup of coffee. Three bedrooms, all situated upstairs, complete this home. Connerton is a masterplan community with new single-family homes, townhomes and villas for sale in idyllic Land O' Lakes, FL. Residents have access to exciting amenities, including two pools - a resort-style pool with a splash park and a competitive lap pool, multiple sport courts, miles of trails for walking, jogging, and biking, as well as an onsite elementary school. The local area boasts extensive shopping, dining and entertainment venues. Interior photos disclosed are different from the actual model being built.

Key facts

• Dog park
• Clubhouse
• Tennis courts

Tags

• HIGH-END WATER SOFTENER
• MAINTENANCE-FREE EXTERIOR
• CLUBHOUSE
• POOL
• TENNIS COURTS
• DOG PARK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features: None
• Financial info: Other annual assessment $1,379; Tax year and amounts available separately; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA required (Folio Association M); Monthly HOA fee $304.72 (includes other association provisions); Association approval required; Pets allowed (maximum ~100 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Townhouse; Residential property; Two levels; Faces northeast; Located on a 0.05 acre lot
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Year built information not provided
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (two-story home)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $305k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-367 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (21.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#596 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Connerton Elementary School (math 48% / reading 57%, grade C-, #976 of 2,144 statewide, top 46%, 958 students, 39% FRL); Pine View Middle School (math 63% / reading 52%, grade B, #157 of 571 statewide, top 28%, 1,170 students, 32% FRL); Land O' Lakes High School (math 56% / reading 64%, grade C+, #106 of 667 statewide, top 16%, 2,248 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($287k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,142 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.16%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $392,245
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9783 Wild Begonia Loop	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,614 (+1%)	1mo	$345,000	$214	87
8772 Flourish Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,754 (+10%)	12mo	$505,000	$288	37
8771 Flourish Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,754 (+10%)	13mo	$420,000	$239	35
22425 Storybook Cabin Way	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-9%)	20mo	$355,000	$245	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-53,461
• Equity at exit: $65,819

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-58,288
• Equity at exit: $62,664

Cash invested: $85,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34637

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,584 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax from tax record: −$378 /mo · $4,538/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$304
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
• Net cashflow: $-367

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,049

Max offer price $240,142

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-194	-5% $-281	+0% $-367	+5% $-453	+10% $-540
Rent	-10% $-571	-5% $-469	+0% $-367	+5% $-265	+10% $-163
Rate	-1.0pp $-214	-0.5pp $-290	base $-367	+0.5pp $-446	+1.0pp $-527

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,250
• Closing costs: $9,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21818 Lyonia Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,250	$1.41	16d	1	0.05mi
21831 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1601	$1,995	$1.25	6d	1	0.07mi
21831 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1601	$1,995	$1.25	1d	1	0.07mi
9750 Campanula Ct Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	2208	$2,700	$1.22	26d	1	0.08mi
21869 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,400	$1.50	26d	1	0.11mi
9676 Nyssa St Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,099	$1.31	14d	1	0.12mi
8862 Gallantree Pl Unit 8862-Townhouse Land O' Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,195	$1.37	14d	1	0.94mi
9645 Carabiner Way Land O' Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,700	$1.44	26d	1	1.01mi
22310 Blazing Star Run Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,650	$1.42	19d	1	1.27mi
9436 Scouter Bee Pl Land O' Lakes, FL	2.0	2.5	1951	$2,350	$1.20	6d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $304 · $3,648/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $305,000 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $305,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $305,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $305,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $305,000 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $305,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $305,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $305,000 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $305,000 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $305,000 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $305,000 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $305,000 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $305,000 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $305,000 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-03-27
    listed $305,000 Active
16. 2023-05-26
    soldstatus $319,130 Closed 867-char remark

    Show marketing remark (867 chars)

    Under Construction. A porch leads into the first level of this two-story townhome where the family room, dining room and kitchen are situated among an open floorplan that maximizes the footprint of the interior. A lanai at the back is the perfect spot to enjoy a morning cup of coffee. Three bedrooms, all situated upstairs, complete this home. Connerton is a masterplan community with new single-family homes, townhomes and villas for sale in idyllic Land O' Lakes, FL. Residents have access to exciting amenities, including two pools - a resort-style pool with a splash park and a competitive lap pool, multiple sport courts, miles of trails for walking, jogging, and biking, as well as an onsite elementary school. The local area boasts extensive shopping, dining and entertainment venues. Interior photos disclosed are different from the actual model being built.

17. 2023-04-11
    status Pending 867-char remark

    Show marketing remark (867 chars)

    Under Construction. A porch leads into the first level of this two-story townhome where the family room, dining room and kitchen are situated among an open floorplan that maximizes the footprint of the interior. A lanai at the back is the perfect spot to enjoy a morning cup of coffee. Three bedrooms, all situated upstairs, complete this home. Connerton is a masterplan community with new single-family homes, townhomes and villas for sale in idyllic Land O' Lakes, FL. Residents have access to exciting amenities, including two pools - a resort-style pool with a splash park and a competitive lap pool, multiple sport courts, miles of trails for walking, jogging, and biking, as well as an onsite elementary school. The local area boasts extensive shopping, dining and entertainment venues. Interior photos disclosed are different from the actual model being built.

18. 2023-04-04
    listed $319,130 Active 867-char remark

    Show marketing remark (867 chars)

    Under Construction. A porch leads into the first level of this two-story townhome where the family room, dining room and kitchen are situated among an open floorplan that maximizes the footprint of the interior. A lanai at the back is the perfect spot to enjoy a morning cup of coffee. Three bedrooms, all situated upstairs, complete this home. Connerton is a masterplan community with new single-family homes, townhomes and villas for sale in idyllic Land O' Lakes, FL. Residents have access to exciting amenities, including two pools - a resort-style pool with a splash park and a competitive lap pool, multiple sport courts, miles of trails for walking, jogging, and biking, as well as an onsite elementary school. The local area boasts extensive shopping, dining and entertainment venues. Interior photos disclosed are different from the actual model being built.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,538 · $378/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,538 · $378/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,011
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,085
• − Property taxes: −$4,538
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,481
• − Management: −$2,481
• − HOA: −$3,648
• − Depreciation: −$8,873
• Taxable loss: −$9,619
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,309
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,097/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in ready townhome in Connerton, FL, offers a perfect blend of style, comfort, and convenience with a fresh paint job and landscaping improvements recommended to maximize its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/renters.
• Both Add a smart home system — A smart home system can increase the property's appeal and value by offering convenience and energy efficiency.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — A smart home system can increase the property's appeal and value by offering convenience and energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Connerton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #11437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Connerton, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 11,398
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,049
• Household income: $115,214
• Rent vs Own: 8.7% rent · 91.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 96.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Current HPI: 126.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-4.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $305,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-26 Sold (MLS) $319,130 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-04 Listed $319,130 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+118.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,538 · -5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.