5035 E Desert Forest Trl · Phoenix, AZ 85331

$625,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,364 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2018 3,275 sqft lot $264/sqft · at area comps Est $617k · at est. $115/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the desirable Rancho Paloma community in Cave Creek, this home offers the kind of Arizona lifestyle buyers are searching for. Rancho Paloma is known for its peaceful desert setting, mountain views, walking paths, nearby hiking trails, and quiet atmosphere that feels removed from the city while still offering convenience. Residents enjoy easy access to outdoor recreation, golf courses, and nearby destinations like Bartlett Lake and The rBoulders. One of the biggest advantages of this location is how close it is to everyday amenities. Desert Ridge, North Phoenix, and Scottsdale are all just a short drive away, giving you quick access to shopping, restaurants, entertainment, grocery

Key facts

• Nearby hiking trails
• Outdoor recreation
• Bartlett lake

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• WALKING PATHS
• NEARBY HIKING TRAILS
• OUTDOOR RECREATION
• GOLF COURSES
• BARTLETT LAKE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Conventional financing available; non-assumable
• HOA & community: HOA with a monthly fee of $115; HOA covers front yard maintenance and grounds maintenance; Community features include biking/walking path

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2-car garage with direct access and garage door opener
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood-frame construction; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Desert front landscaping; Desert back landscaping; Synthetic grass in back yard; Block fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Reverse osmosis water filtration; Kitchen island; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Up to 6 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Ceiling heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Granite counters; Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; Kitchen island; Pantry; Dual-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Upstairs laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $625k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-24 ($-288/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $621k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $475k (23.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $475k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Black Mountain Elementary School (math 66% / reading 63%, grade B, #104 of 1,109 statewide, top 10%, 495 students, 8% FRL); Sonoran Trails Middle School (math 48% / reading 50%, grade C-, #31 of 218 statewide, top 14%, 761 students, 7% FRL); Cactus Shadows High School (math 49% / reading 46%, grade D, #48 of 381 statewide, top 13%, 1,588 students, 6% FRL) — zoned schools at 7% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 397 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($606k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $475,330 (23.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.16%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $616,524
• List price: $625,000
• Delta: 1.37%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5168 E Desert Forest Trl	0.07mi	4/3.5	2,304 (-2%)	4mo	$500,000	$217	87
32716 N 50th St	0.06mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,304 (-2%)	3mo	$540,000	$234	83
5090 E Sleepy Ranch Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,357 (-0%)	5mo	$700,000	$297	81
4819 E Lonesome Trl	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,437 (+3%)	2mo	$805,000	$330	69
4814 E Crimson Ter	0.45mi	4/2.0	2,410 (+2%)	3mo	$725,000	$301	69
4717 E Sleepy Ranch Rd	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,511 (+6%)	2mo	$838,705	$334	60
32523 N 56th Pl	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,424 (+2%)	1mo	$810,000	$334	58
33235 N Symer Dr	0.54mi	4/3.0	2,132 (-10%)	2mo	$650,000	$305	57
5323 E Thunder Hawk Rd	0.47mi	4/2.0	2,557 (+8%)	6mo	$750,000	$293	56
5022 E Calle DE Los Flores --	0.58mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,598 (+10%)	2mo	$998,000	$384	48
4445 E Sleepy Ranch Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,483 (+5%)	2mo	$725,000	$292	47
4534 E Sleepy Ranch Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,217 (-6%)	7mo	$720,000	$325	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-103,066
• Equity at exit: $93,190

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-92,773
• Equity at exit: $54,039

Cash invested: $175,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85331

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Active inventory: 397
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,753 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,278
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,513/yr
• Insurance: −$260
• HOA: −$115
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$998
• Net cashflow: $-24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,784

Max offer price $620,760

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $330	-5% $153	+0% $-24	+5% $-201	+10% $-378
Rent	-10% $-400	-5% $-212	+0% $-24	+5% $164	+10% $352
Rate	-1.0pp $291	-0.5pp $135	base $-24	+0.5pp $-186	+1.0pp $-351

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $156,250
• Closing costs: $18,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5100 E Rancho Paloma Dr #1076 Cave Creek, AZ	3.0	2.0	1835	$5,000	$2.72	19d	1	0.10mi
5100 E Rancho Paloma Dr Cave Creek, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1747	$5,000	$2.86	5d	2	0.17mi
5100 E Rancho Paloma Dr Cave Creek, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1627	$5,000	$3.07	24d	2	0.17mi
4711 E Sleepy Ranch Rd Cave Creek, AZ	4.0	3.0	2814	$3,950	$1.40	24d	1	0.47mi
4711 E Sleepy Ranch Rd Cave Creek, AZ	4.0	3.0	2814	$4,000	$1.42	13d	1	0.47mi
4909 E Tumbleweed Cir Cave Creek, AZ	3.0	2.0	1829	$9,500	$5.19	1d	1	0.80mi
5805 E Jake Hvn Cave Creek, AZ	3.0	2.0	2182	$3,395	$1.56	26d	1	0.93mi
4613 E Thorn Tree Dr Cave Creek, AZ	3.0	3.0	2124	$2,750	$1.29	6d	1	0.98mi
4314 E Smokehouse Trl Cave Creek, AZ	4.0	2.0	1782	$2,700	$1.52	46d	1	1.01mi
4224 E Ashler Hills Dr Cave Creek, AZ	4.0	2.0	2059	$3,400	$1.65	26d	1	1.08mi
5940 E Bramble Berry Ln Cave Creek, AZ	3.0	2.0	2168	$7,000	$3.23	46d	1	1.13mi
4447 E Creosote Dr Cave Creek, AZ	4.0	2.5	1797	$2,999	$1.67	46d	1	1.13mi
32505 N 41st Way Cave Creek, AZ	4.0	3.0	3299	$5,500	$1.67	0d	1	1.13mi
4401 E Chaparosa Way Cave Creek, AZ	3.0	2.5	1797	$3,100	$1.73	26d	1	1.24mi
6018 E Old West Way Scottsdale, AZ	5.0	2.5	2975	$7,800	$2.62	46d	1	1.25mi
5936 E Night Glow Cir Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.5	2601	$10,000	$3.84	46d	1	1.33mi
34151 N 60th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.5	2504	$6,000	$2.40	26d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $115 · $1,380/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $625,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $625,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $625,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $625,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $625,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $625,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $625,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $625,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $625,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $625,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $625,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $625,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $625,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $625,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $625,000 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $625,000 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    listed $625,000 Active 1695-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,513 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,125 · $344/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,612/yr (+$218/mo · 172.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,040
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,010
• − Property taxes: −$1,513
• − Insurance: −$3,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,563
• − Management: −$4,563
• − HOA: −$1,380
• − Depreciation: −$18,182
• Taxable loss: −$11,297
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,711
• After-tax cash flow: $2,423/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cave Creek Unified District (4244)
• NCES district ID: 0400001
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $102,788
• Composite: 54.46/100
• National rank: #1351
• State rank: #13 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 31,968
• Household income: $129,083
• Rent vs Own: 7.4% rent · 92.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 169.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 4% Portuguese 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.66%
• Current HPI: 316.6855
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $625,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+57.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,513 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.