46 Terry Dr · Sag Harbor, NY 11963

$4,500,000

5 bd · 5.5 ba · 3,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 18 Days on market

Built 1954 9,148 sqft lot Est $5202k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks

New construction in a private beach community just moments from Sag Harbor Village. Situated on a corner lot of approximately 0.19 acres, this 5-bedroom, 5.5-bath residence offers approximately 3,800 square feet of living space designed for modern coastal living. The open floor plan features living and dining areas filled with natural light, a well-appointed kitchen with premium finishes and appliances, and two primary suites, including one on the main level and one on the second floor, providing flexibility for guests, multigenerational living, or a variety of lifestyle needs. Contemporary details include wide-plank flooring, an electric LED fireplace, and multiple indoor and outdoor gathe

Key facts

• Master suite
• Large gathering area
• Multiple patio areas

Tags

• PRIVATE BEACH NEIGHBORHOOD
• LARGE GATHERING AREA
• NICELY APPOINTED KITCHEN
• MASTER SUITE
• MULTIPLE PATIO AREAS
• ELECTRIC LED LIT FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Space for 4 vehicles; Carport; Driveway; Private parking lot
• Security: Security system; Video cameras
• Utilities: Septic tank; Cable available; Private trash collection; Electric service (provider: Other)
• Home design: Single family residence; One level
• Construction: Cedar and frame construction; Brick/mortar foundation
• Exterior features: Private dock; Outdoor speakers; In-ground pool; Fenced yard; Corner lot; Near shops

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Wine refrigerator; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: Primary suite on the downstairs/main level
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 5 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Baseboard heating; Propane heating; Ductless cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Chandelier; Granite counters; Low flow plumbing fixtures; Speakers / whole-house entertainment system; Primary bathroom; First-floor bedroom; Master bedroom on main level; Patio
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/5.5-bath single-family listed at $4.50M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8k ($-91k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $3.41M (24.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.98M (33.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.98M (33.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#427 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Sag Harbor Union Free School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #175 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Sag Harbor Elementary School (math 47% / reading 72%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 426 students, 22% FRL); Pierson Middle/High School (math 61% / reading 72%, grade B, #763 of 1,100 statewide, top 69%, 525 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools average 24% FRL vs 8% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.8%/yr); 66 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $29,810/mo this rent would consume 280% of the median local household income ($128k/yr) (locally 95% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $444k of equity ($31k loan paydown + $413k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$713k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($4.43M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $510k; list at $4.50M implies a 782% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,980,967 (33.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.19%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $5,202,200
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30 Hampton St	0.69mi	5/5.0	4,310 (+13%)	13mo	$5,900,000	$1,369	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.19% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $1,879,718
• Equity at exit: $3,789,810

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.96×
• Total profit: $6,250,719
• Equity at exit: $7,907,194

Cash invested: $1,260,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11963

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Rents YoY: 10.8%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $29,810 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$23,598
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$5,625 /mo · $67,500/yr
• Insurance: −$1,875
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,260
• Net cashflow: $-7,549

Break-even live

Break-even rent $39,365

Max offer price $3,407,670

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-4,439	-5% $-5,994	+0% $-7,549	+5% $-9,104	+10% $-10,659
Rent	-10% $-9,904	-5% $-8,726	+0% $-7,549	+5% $-6,371	+10% $-5,194
Rate	-1.0pp $-5,283	-0.5pp $-6,404	base $-7,549	+0.5pp $-8,715	+1.0pp $-9,901

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,125,000
• Closing costs: $135,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7 Old Sag Harbor Rd East Hampton, NY	5.0	5.5	4000	$25,000	$6.25	0d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $4,500,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $4,500,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $4,500,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $4,500,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $4,500,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $4,500,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $4,500,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $4,500,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $4,500,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    remarks 585-char remark
12. 2026-06-04
    listed $4,500,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $357,716
• − Mortgage interest: −$252,070
• − Property taxes: −$67,500
• − Insurance: −$22,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$28,617
• − Management: −$28,617
• − Depreciation: −$130,909
• Taxable loss: −$172,498
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$41,399
• After-tax cash flow: $-49,187/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sag Harbor Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3625380
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $81,547
• Composite: 55.69/100
• National rank: #1222
• State rank: #175 of 590 in NY

Livability — Sag Harbor

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #427
• US rank: #7428

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sag Harbor, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 8,390
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 8,390
• Household income: $127,746
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 95.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.19%
• Current HPI: 499.3304
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.76%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1295.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $4,500,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $510,000 Public Records
• 2001-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $322,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,334 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.