208 Westwind Dr · Avon Lake, OH 44012

$509,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1985 0.41 ac lot Est $443k · 15% over $52/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• Schools +7.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.8/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Custom Cedar/Stone Contemporary Ranch With Over $25,000 In Recent Upgrades * A True Gourmet Kitchen With Viking Range And Hood, Stainless Kitchen Aid Refrigerator And Bosch Dishwasher * Quartz Counters And Hardwood Floors-vaulted Ceilings And More *

Key facts

• Gas fireplace
• Renovated kitchen
• One floor living

Tags

• ONE FLOOR LIVING
• SUN FILLED LIVING ROOM
• GAS FIREPLACE
• EXPANSIVE DECK
• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• PROFESSIONAL VIKING RANGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $509k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $407 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $503k (1.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $494k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.2% in Avon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#52 in OH, #736 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: commute F.
• Avon Lake City (suburban): math 78% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #48 of 656 in OH (top 7%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 178 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,098 units permitted in Lorain County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,029/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($116k/yr) (locally 290% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($494k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 31y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $307k; list at $509k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $493,730 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.43%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $443,128
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
208 Westwind Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,296 (0%)	1mo	$505,000	$220	100
196 Tomahawk Dr	0.23mi	4/3.5	2,301 (+0%)	11mo	$399,000	$173	76
31791 Lake Rd	0.21mi	4/2.5	2,128 (-7%)	8mo	$450,000	$211	71
141 Brunswick Dr	0.39mi	4/2.5	2,295 (-0%)	18mo	$375,000	$163	66
31763 Lake Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,020 (-12%)	7mo	$425,500	$211	55
388 Windward Way	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,511 (+9%)	5mo	$550,000	$219	52
163 S Point Dr	0.33mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,028 (-12%)	11mo	$330,000	$163	51
219 Jamestown	0.75mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,361 (+3%)	18mo	$365,000	$155	40
202 Lakewood Dr	0.38mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,023 (-12%)	22mo	$320,000	$158	39
31540 Lake Rd	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,992 (-13%)	6mo	$665,500	$334	38
10 Salem Ct	0.42mi	4/2.5	2,638 (+15%)	22mo	$435,000	$165	37
369 Regatta Dr	0.55mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,592 (+13%)	21mo	$499,000	$193	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-56,421
• Equity at exit: $75,894

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-15,284
• Equity at exit: $44,009

Cash invested: $142,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44012

• Active inventory: 178
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,029 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,669
• Tax from tax record: −$632 /mo · $7,586/yr
• Insurance: −$212
• HOA: −$52
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,056
• Net cashflow: $407

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,513

Max offer price $509,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $127,250
• Closing costs: $15,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
32071 Lake Rd Unit 1496051P Avon Lake, OH	4.0	2.5	1603	$7,861	$4.90	8d	1	0.64mi
384 Bradley Rd Bay Village, OH	3.0	2.5	2000	$4,100	$2.05	8d	1	1.44mi
384 Bradley Rd Bay Village, OH	3.0	3.0	2000	$4,100	$2.05	3d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $52 · $624/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-17
   price $509,000
3. 2026-02-27
   price $529,999
4. 2026-02-26
   listed $525,000 Active
5. 2025-12-31
   historical
6. 2025-12-04
   status Active
7. 2025-11-30
   historical
8. 2025-10-01
   status Active
9. 2025-09-30
   historical
10. 2025-09-11
    price $564,900
11. 2025-07-31
    price $585,000
12. 2025-07-13
    listed $599,000 Active
13. 2006-07-17
    soldstatus $307,000 249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (249 chars)

    Custom Cedar/Stone Contemporary Ranch With Over $25,000 In Recent Upgrades * A True Gourmet Kitchen With Viking Range And Hood, Stainless Kitchen Aid Refrigerator And Bosch Dishwasher * Quartz Counters And Hardwood Floors-vaulted Ceilings And More *

14. 2006-07-13
    soldstatus $307,000
15. 2006-04-12
    listed $312,900 249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (249 chars)

    Custom Cedar/Stone Contemporary Ranch With Over $25,000 In Recent Upgrades * A True Gourmet Kitchen With Viking Range And Hood, Stainless Kitchen Aid Refrigerator And Bosch Dishwasher * Quartz Counters And Hardwood Floors-vaulted Ceilings And More *

16. 2002-03-01
    soldstatus $274,000
17. 2002-02-28
    soldstatus $274,000
18. 2002-01-19
    historical
19. 2001-10-19
    listed $289,900
20. 1999-12-06
    soldstatus $229,000
21. 1999-12-02
    soldstatus $229,000
22. 1999-07-19
    listed $247,000
23. 1996-04-30
    historical
24. 1995-10-15
    listed $229,500
25. 1990-06-05
    soldstatus $200,000
26. 1988-02-22
    soldstatus $171,740

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,586 · $632/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,763 · $647/mo
• Expected delta: +$177/yr (+$15/mo · 2.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $60,349
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,512
• − Property taxes: −$7,586
• − Insurance: −$2,545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,828
• − Management: −$4,828
• − HOA: −$624
• − Depreciation: −$14,807
• Taxable loss: −$3,381
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$811
• After-tax cash flow: $5,701/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Avon Lake City
• NCES district ID: 3904812
• Math proficiency: 78% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 80% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $79,608
• Composite: 69.66/100
• National rank: #296
• State rank: #48 of 656 in OH

Livability — Avon Lake

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #52
• US rank: #736

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Avon Lake, OH
• County: Lorain County · 219,437 people
• City population: 25,752
• Metro: Cleveland-Elyria, OH
• Population (ZIP): 25,752
• Household income: $115,567
• Rent vs Own: 16.9% rent · 83.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 290.0

Population outlook (Lorain County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 314,924 people
• By 2030: 317,546 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 317,962 · +1.0%
• By 2050: 312,872 · -0.7%
• By 2075: 301,806 · -4.2%
• By 2100: 278,271 · -11.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lorain

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.7) · D 46.7% · R 52.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.9pp · 2024: -5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.7 2020: R+2.5 2016: R+0.3 2012: D+14.4 2008: D+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -148.16%
• Current HPI: 207.1177
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Cleveland-Elyria, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+196.4% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $509,000 MLSNOW
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $529,999 MLSNOW
• 2026-02-26 Listed $525,000 MLSNOW
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2025-12-04 Relisted — MLSNOW
• 2025-11-30 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2025-10-01 Relisted — MLSNOW
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2025-09-11 Price Changed $564,900 MLSNOW
• 2025-07-31 Price Changed $585,000 MLSNOW
• 2025-07-13 Listed $599,000 MLSNOW
• 2006-07-17 Sold (MLS) $307,000 MLSNOW
• 2006-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $307,000 Public Records
• 2006-04-12 Listed $312,900 MLSNOW
• 2002-03-01 Sold (MLS) $274,000 MLSNOW
• 2002-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $274,000 Public Records
• 2002-01-19 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2001-10-19 Listed $289,900 MLSNOW
• 1999-12-06 Sold (MLS) $229,000 MLSNOW
• 1999-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $229,000 Public Records
• 1999-07-19 Listed $247,000 MLSNOW
• 1996-04-30 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 1995-10-15 Listed $229,500 MLSNOW
• 1990-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 1988-02-22 Sold (Public Records) $171,740 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,586 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.