1300 Whitetail Ave. 292 Plan · Fort Lupton, CO 80621

$174,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,393 sqft · Manufactured · 161 Days on market

Good condition $126/sqft · 39% below area Est $289k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome Home to our Vista Model! This adorable 3 bed 2 bath home will be move in ready late January. Located in Fort Lupton's Premier All Age Community of Willow Crossing. This home features an open floor plan concept with spacious living areas and bedrooms. The Primary Suite offers a huge walk-in closet, and a sizable Primary bathroom with a walk-in shower. This home won't last long, call today to schedule your tour! * * Disclaimer: photos are of previously built home & do not accurately represent this home. Colors and options may vary.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Walk-in closet
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• WALK-IN SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $395 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.8% in Fort Lupton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#130 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, amenities B; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, commute F.
• Weld County Reorganized School District No. Re-8 (town): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #74 of 86 in CO (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 221 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $153,995 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.67%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $289,010
• List price: $174,995
• Delta: -39.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-3,186
• Equity at exit: $26,092

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $29,722
• Equity at exit: $15,130

Cash invested: $48,999 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80621

• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,030 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,625/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $395

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $174,995

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $516	-5% $455	+0% $395	+5% $334	+10% $274
Rent	-10% $234	-5% $315	+0% $395	+5% $475	+10% $555
Rate	-1.0pp $483	-0.5pp $439	base $395	+0.5pp $349	+1.0pp $303

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,749
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1300 Whitetail Ave Fort Lupton, CO	2.0–4.0	2.0	1296	$1,800	$1.39	5d	1	0.03mi
2155 Alyssa St Fort Lupton, CO	3.0	2.5	1870	$2,845	$1.52	5d	1	0.28mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,995 Active 161 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,995 Active 160 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,995 Active 159 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,995 Active 158 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $174,995 Active 156 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $174,995 Active 153 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,995 Active 152 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,995 Active 151 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $174,995 Active 150 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,995 Active 146 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,995 Active 145 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,995 Active 144 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,995 Active 143 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $174,995 Active 142 DOM
15. 2026-01-08
    listed $174,995 Active 552-char remark

    Show marketing remark (552 chars)

    Welcome Home to our Vista Model! This adorable 3 bed 2 bath home will be move in ready late January. Located in Fort Lupton's Premier All Age Community of Willow Crossing. This home features an open floor plan concept with spacious living areas and bedrooms. The Primary Suite offers a huge walk-in closet, and a sizable Primary bathroom with a walk-in shower. This home won't last long, call today to schedule your tour! * * Disclaimer: photos are of previously built home & do not accurately represent this home. Colors and options may vary.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,366
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,802
• − Property taxes: −$2,625
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,949
• − Management: −$1,949
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $2,074
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$498
• After-tax cash flow: $4,239/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready manufactured home in Fort Lupton's Willow Crossing community is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. Minor updates like painting and landscaping can further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard improves curb appeal and adds value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard improves curb appeal and adds value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weld County Reorganized School District No. Re-8
• NCES district ID: 0804020
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $56,116
• Composite: 18.48/100
• National rank: #8921
• State rank: #74 of 86 in CO

Livability — Fort Lupton

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #130
• US rank: #11069

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living C Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Lupton, CO
• City population: 14,542
• Population (ZIP): 14,542

Population outlook (Weld County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 351,957 people
• By 2030: 385,304 · +9.5%
• By 2040: 451,818 · +28.4%
• By 2050: 514,478 · +46.2%
• By 2075: 648,733 · +84.3%
• By 2100: 720,400 · +104.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (51%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% White 44% Two or more races 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 34%

Political lean MEDSL · Weld

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.0) · D 38.2% · R 59.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.0 2020: R+18.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+13.2 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -164.37%
• Current HPI: 285.9162
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-08 Listed $174,995 Zillow