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3649 Luxor Way
D Composite 43.18
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +11.8/15.0
  • Cash flow +9.1/30.0
  • Schools +5.4/10.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • 1% rule +3.5/10.0
  • Livability +3.5/5.0
  • Rent growth +3.3/5.0
  • DSCR +2.5/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$245,990

3649 Luxor Way · Oakleaf Plantation, FL 32068
3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,406 sqft · Townhouse · 22 Days on market
Built 2026 Good condition 1,742 sqft lot 1-car garage $175/sqft · 10% below area Est $272k · 10% under $150/mo HOA · 7% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Where style meets smart living, discover a new way to feel at home at the District at Oakleaf. Designed for the way you live today, these homes feature spray foam insulation and a Clean Air Home system for lasting comfort and efficiency. At the center, a spacious kitchen island flows effortlessly into the main living area--perfect for gathering, relaxing, and entertaining. Thoughtful finishes include Whirlpool stainless steel appliances, washer and dryer, blinds, quartz or granite countertops, and 42-inch upper cabinets. Stay connected with a smart home package offering front door camera, keyless entry, and thermostat control from your phone.

Key facts

  • Cabana and pool
  • Upstairs laundry
  • Playground

Tags

ENERGY EFFICIENT HOMEOPEN CONCEPT MAIN FLOORPRIVATE PRIMARY SUITEUPSTAIRS LAUNDRYCABANA AND POOLPLAYGROUND

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $246k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-191 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (11.2% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (14.6% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $210k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
  • Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.0% in Oakleaf Plantation — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 70/100 on livability (#446 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
  • Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
  • Zoned schools: Tynes Elementary School (math 65% / reading 63%, grade B, #552 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 1,021 students, 43% FRL); Oakleaf Junior High (math 50% / reading 54%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 1,118 students, 46% FRL); Ridgeview High School (math 41% / reading 53%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 1,828 students, 46% FRL).
  • Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 962 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 29d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer $209,991 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.85% ✗
Cap rate
5.36%
Cash-on-cash
-3.33%
DSCR
0.85
GRM
9.8

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$271,990
List price
$245,990
Delta
-9.56%
Verdict
FAIR
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
3629 Luxor Way 0.02mi 3/2.5 1,406 (0%) 1mo $249,990 $178 98
3645 Luxor Way 0.00mi 3/2.5 1,406 (0%) 3mo $255,000 $181 98
3641 Luxor Way 0.01mi 3/2.5 1,406 (0%) 3mo $244,990 $174 97
3653 Luxor Way 0.00mi 3/2.5 1,406 (0%) 4mo $239,990 $171 97
3633 Luxor Way 0.01mi 3/2.5 1,482 (+5%) 3mo $263,990 $178 88
3632 Luxor Way 0.12mi 3/2.5 1,482 (+5%) 2mo $259,990 $175 84
3786 Cairo Way 0.02mi 3/2.5 1,598 (+14%) 2mo $293,000 $183 74
3782 Cairo Way 0.17mi 3/2.5 1,598 (+14%) 1mo $282,990 $177 69
823 Iken St 0.13mi 3/2.5 1,598 (+14%) 3mo $284,990 $178 68
3794 Cairo Way 0.16mi 3/2.5 1,598 (+14%) 3mo $289,990 $181 67
3766 Cairo Way 0.17mi 3/2.5 1,598 (+14%) 3mo $298,490 $187 67
3260 Chestnut Ridge Way 0.69mi 2/2.0 (-1) 1,381 (-2%) 4mo $247,500 $179 55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-21.4%
Equity multiple
0.26×
Total profit
$-51,163
Equity at exit
$36,678
10-year hold
IRR
-14.0%
Equity multiple
0.18×
Total profit
$-56,651
Equity at exit
$21,269

Cash invested: $68,877 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Florida
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.
Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
15 active · 17 under contract
Months of supply
5.3 mo (19%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$252,165 ($182/sqft)
Median days on market
139 d
This list price
40% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+6.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32068

Home prices YoY
-27.5%
Rents YoY
3.4%
Active inventory
962
Price-to-rent
9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,100 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,290
Tax est. 1.5%
−$307 /mo · $3,690/yr
Insurance
−$102
HOA
−$150
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
−$441
Net cashflow
$-191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,342
Max offer price $218,344
Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-21 -5% $-106 +0% $-191 +5% $-276 +10% $-361
Rent -10% $-357 -5% $-274 +0% $-191 +5% $-108 +10% $-25
Rate -1.0pp $-67 -0.5pp $-128 base $-191 +0.5pp $-255 +1.0pp $-320

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$61,498
Closing costs
$7,380
Reserves months
—
Total cash needed
—

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 38 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
3608 York Ln Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.5 1624 $2,474 $1.52 0d 78 0.12mi
3363 Roundabout Dr Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.5 1420 $1,997 $1.41 10d 1 0.22mi
3587 Evers Cv Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.0 1557 $1,799 $1.16 28d 1 0.30mi
3587 Evers Cv Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.0 1557 $1,799 $1.16 10d 1 0.30mi
3592 Evers Cv Middleburg, FL 4.0 2.0 1700 $2,200 $1.29 2d 1 0.32mi
3302 Roundabout Dr Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.0 1606 $2,097 $1.31 10d 1 0.32mi
3604 Prairie Wind Ct Middleburg, FL 2.0 2.5 1160 $1,595 $1.38 10d 1 0.44mi
656 Sunny Stroll Dr Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.0 1345 $1,779 $1.32 109d 1 0.46mi
660 Sunny Stroll Dr Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.0 1662 $1,815 $1.09 10d 1 0.47mi
827 Rivertree Pl Middleburg, FL 2.0 2.5 1160 $1,600 $1.38 10d 1 0.50mi
827 Rivertree Pl Middleburg, FL 2.0 2.5 1160 $1,750 $1.51 55d 1 0.50mi
903 Rivertree Pl Middleburg, FL 2.0 2.5 1160 $1,665 $1.44 138d 1 0.53mi
903 Rivertree Pl Middleburg, FL 2.0 2.5 1160 $1,665 $1.44 128d 1 0.53mi
728 Sunny Stroll Dr Middleburg, FL 4.0 2.0 1860 $2,200 $1.18 164d 1 0.54mi
824 Integra Park Dr Middleburg, FL 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 1068 $2,242 $2.10 0d 19 0.67mi
816 Redtail Ln Middleburg, FL 4.0 2.0 1821 $2,100 $1.15 55d 1 0.88mi
3480 Waterford Oaks Dr Orange Park, FL 4.0 2.0 1768 $2,197 $1.24 29d 1 0.99mi
3480 Waterford Oaks Dr Unit 22 Orange Park, FL 3.0 2.0 1768 $1,500 $0.85 49d 1 0.99mi
3349 Horseshoe Trail Dr Orange Park, FL 3.0 2.0 1771 $2,060 $1.16 48d 1 1.01mi
761 Turkey Point Dr Orange Park, FL 4.0 2.0 1753 $2,365 $1.35 1d 1 1.11mi
670 Grover Ln Orange Park, FL 3.0 2.5 1704 $1,950 $1.14 112d 1 1.14mi
488 Tynes Blvd Middleburg, FL 4.0 2.5 1875 $2,250 $1.20 10d 1 1.17mi
607 Reese Ave Orange Park, FL 3.0 2.5 1475 $1,800 $1.22 10d 1 1.17mi
619 Grover Ln Orange Park, FL 3.0 2.5 1683 $1,895 $1.13 133d 1 1.19mi
3938 Bloomfield Ct Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.5 1715 $2,275 $1.33 158d 1 1.20mi
3938 Bloomfield Ct Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.5 1715 $2,195 $1.28 55d 1 1.20mi
3905 Aubrey Ln Orange Park, FL 3.0 3.0 1580 $1,900 $1.20 9d 1 1.21mi
3861 Aubrey Ln Orange Park, FL 3.0 2.5 1564 $1,800 $1.15 10d 1 1.21mi
1255 Bedrock Dr Orange Park, FL 4.0 2.0 1673 $1,861 $1.11 7d 1 1.24mi
3949 Leatherwood Dr Orange Park, FL 3.0 2.0 1732 $2,070 $1.20 20d 1 1.25mi
979 Misty Maple Ct Orange Park, FL 4.0 2.0 1673 $2,107 $1.26 2d 1 1.30mi
3750 Silver Bluff Blvd Orange Park, FL 2.0–3.0 2.0–3.0 1862 $1,850 $0.99 143d 2 1.32mi
3750 Silver Bluff Blvd Orange Park, FL 3.0 2.5–3.0 1760 $1,850 $1.05 133d 1 1.32mi
4007 Leatherwood Dr Orange Park, FL 3.0 2.5 1817 $2,166 $1.19 103d 1 1.35mi
1064 Moosehead Dr Orange Park, FL 4.0 2.0 1713 $1,949 $1.14 112d 1 1.38mi
1063 Moosehead Dr Orange Park, FL 3.0 2.0 1513 $1,950 $1.29 10d 1 1.39mi
3899 Pebble Brooke Cir Orange Park, FL 3.0 2.0 1502 $1,950 $1.30 2d 1 1.47mi
3886 Pebble Brooke Cir Orange Park, FL 3.0 2.0 1502 $1,850 $1.23 164d 1 1.47mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community
Community association with monthly fee of $150Community amenities include park and playground

Exterior

Parking
Attached garage with garage door opener (1-car garage)
Utilities
Public sewerWater connectedSewer connectedElectricity connectedCable available
Home design
Townhouse (attached)Residential property
Construction
Fiber cement exterior
Exterior features
Fenced (other)Shingle roof

Interior

Kitchen
DisposalElectric rangeENERGY STAR qualified dishwasherMicrowaveRefrigerator
Bedrooms
3 bedrooms (all on the second level)
Flooring
CarpetTile
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling
Central heatingCentral air conditioning
Interior features
Open floorplanKitchen islandPantryPrimary bathroom with shower (no tub)Smart home featuresWalk-in closet(s)
Laundry & utility
Laundry on upper levelElectric water heater

HOA detail $150/mo · $1,800/yr

Likely covers
pool

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-11-08
    days on market $245,990 Active 22 DOM
  2. 2026-11-07
    days on market $245,990 Active 21 DOM
  3. 2026-11-06
    days on market $245,990 Active 20 DOM
  4. 2026-11-05
    days on market $245,990 Active 19 DOM
  5. 2026-11-04
    pricedays on market $245,990 Active 18 DOM
  6. 2026-11-02
    days on market $248,990 Active 16 DOM
  7. 2026-11-01
    days on market $248,990 Active 15 DOM
  8. 2026-10-31
    days on market $248,990 Active 14 DOM
  9. 2026-10-30
    days on market $248,990 Active 13 DOM
  10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $248,990 Active 12 DOM
  11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $248,990 Active 11 DOM
  12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $248,990 Active 10 DOM
  13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $248,990 Active 9 DOM
  14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $248,990 Active 8 DOM
  15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $248,990 Active 7 DOM
  16. 2026-10-23
    days on marketlisting id $248,990 Active 6 DOM
  17. 2026-10-23
    days on market $248,990 Active 130 DOM
  18. 2026-10-22
    days on market $248,990 Active 129 DOM
  19. 2026-10-21
    days on market $248,990 Active 128 DOM
  20. 2026-10-20
    days on market $248,990 Active 127 DOM
  21. 2026-10-19
    days on market $248,990 Active 126 DOM
  22. 2026-10-18
    days on market $248,990 Active 125 DOM
  23. 2026-10-17
    days on market $248,990 Active 124 DOM
  24. 2026-10-16
    days on market $248,990 Active 123 DOM
  25. 2026-10-15
    days on market $248,990 Active 122 DOM
  26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $248,990 Active 121 DOM
  27. 2026-10-13
    days on market $248,990 Active 120 DOM
  28. 2026-10-12
    days on market $248,990 Active 119 DOM
  29. 2026-10-11
    days on market $248,990 Active 118 DOM
  30. 2026-10-10
    days on market $248,990 Active 117 DOM
  31. 2026-10-09
    days on market $248,990 Active 116 DOM
  32. 2026-10-08
    days on market $248,990 Active 115 DOM
  33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $248,990 Active 114 DOM
  34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $248,990 Active 113 DOM
  35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $248,990 Active 112 DOM
  36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $248,990 Active 111 DOM
  37. 2026-10-03
    days on market $248,990 Active 110 DOM
  38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $248,990 Active 109 DOM
  39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $248,990 Active 108 DOM
  40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $248,990 Active 107 DOM
  41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $248,990 Active 106 DOM
  42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $248,990 Active 105 DOM
  43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $248,990 Active 104 DOM
  44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $248,990 Active 102 DOM
  45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $248,990 Active 101 DOM
  46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $248,990 Active 100 DOM
  47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $248,990 Active 99 DOM
  48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $248,990 Active 98 DOM
  49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $248,990 Active 97 DOM
  50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $248,990 Active 96 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$25,199
− Mortgage interest
−$13,779
− Property taxes
−$3,690
− Insurance
−$1,230
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,016
− Management
−$2,016
− HOA
−$1,800
− Depreciation
−$7,156
Taxable loss
−$6,488
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$1,557
After-tax cash flow
$-736/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready townhouse is in excellent condition with modern amenities and a smart home package, making it ideal for both buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Smart home package — Enhances comfort and convenience for both buyers and renters ↑
  • Both Smart thermostat control — Improves energy efficiency and comfort ↑
  • Both Smart doorbell camera — Enhances security and convenience ↑
D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Tynes Elementary School B FL #552/2,144 Nat'l #5,798/41,679 Middle Oakleaf Junior High C+ FL #217/571 Nat'l #3,033/14,009 High Ridgeview High School D- FL #207/667 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Clay
NCES district ID
1200300
Math proficiency
58% ▼ -8.00%
Reading proficiency
59% ▼ -3.00%
Median HH income
$59,379
Composite
50.73/100
National rank
#1815
State rank
#14 of 73 in FL
B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Oakleaf Plantation

Score
70/100
State rank
#446
US rank
#8083

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Oakleaf Plantation, FL
County
Clay County · 230,495 people
City population
40,366
Metro
Jacksonville, FL
Population (ZIP)
58,983
Household income
$84,431
Rent vs Own
20.7% rent · 79.3% own
Severe rent burden
16% of renters

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
230,495 people
By 2030
242,427 · +5.2%
By 2040
262,244 · +13.8%
By 2050
275,148 · +19.4%
By 2075
295,397 · +28.2%
By 2100
287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Predominantly White (74%)
Race & ethnicity
White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
Languages at home
87% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

2024 margin
Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
2008→2024 swing
+3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
All cycles
2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

Civics
—

Price history

2 events — show timeline
  • 2026-05-26 Pending — realMLS
  • 2026-05-20 Listed $239,990 realMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…