3649 Luxor Way · Oakleaf Plantation, FL 32068

$248,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,406 sqft · SingleFamily · 100 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 1-car garage $177/sqft · 20% below area Est $310k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Where style meets smart living, discover a new way to feel at home at the District at Oakleaf. Designed for the way you live today, these homes feature spray foam insulation and a Clean Air Home system for lasting comfort and efficiency. At the center, a spacious kitchen island flows effortlessly into the main living area--perfect for gathering, relaxing, and entertaining. Thoughtful finishes include Whirlpool stainless steel appliances, washer and dryer, blinds, quartz or granite countertops, and 42-inch upper cabinets. Stay connected with a smart home package offering front door camera, keyless entry, and thermostat control from your phone.

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 2026
• Listed 99 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $249k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9 ($-106/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.0% in Oakleaf Plantation — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#446 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tynes Elementary School (math 65% / reading 63%, grade B, #552 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 1,021 students, 43% FRL); Oakleaf Junior High (math 50% / reading 54%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 1,118 students, 46% FRL); Ridgeview High School (math 41% / reading 53%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 1,828 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 873 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $216,696 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.15%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $310,108
• List price: $248,990
• Delta: -19.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3305 New Beginnings Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-4%)	8mo	$240,000	$178	67
3467 Lynn Ct	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,488 (+6%)	18mo	$262,500	$176	54
860 Rooster Hollow Way	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,590 (+13%)	1mo	$330,000	$208	52
3221 Roundabout Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,252 (-11%)	6mo	$264,000	$211	51
908 Rooster Hollow Way	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,590 (+13%)	3mo	$337,000	$212	50
3548 Grayson Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,557 (+11%)	16mo	$287,000	$184	49
3396 Green Oaks Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,384 (-2%)	16mo	$230,000	$166	47
628 Sunny Stroll Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,272 (-10%)	21mo	$265,000	$208	46
3248 Roundabout Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,272 (-10%)	24mo	$268,000	$211	42
916 Rooster Hollow Way	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,590 (+13%)	13mo	$348,000	$219	41
3468 Kindlewood Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,590 (+13%)	13mo	$362,000	$228	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-40,110
• Equity at exit: $37,125

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-32,352
• Equity at exit: $21,528

Cash invested: $69,717 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 13 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 19.5 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $279,990 ($180/sqft)
• Median days on market: 75 d
• This list price: 8% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +22.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32068

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 873
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,167 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$311 /mo · $3,735/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $-9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,178

Max offer price $247,716

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $163	-5% $77	+0% $-9	+5% $-95	+10% $-181
Rent	-10% $-180	-5% $-94	+0% $-9	+5% $77	+10% $162
Rate	-1.0pp $117	-0.5pp $55	base $-9	+0.5pp $-73	+1.0pp $-139

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,248
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3608 York Ln Middleburg, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1624	$2,699	$1.66	0d	87	0.12mi
3363 Roundabout Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1420	$1,960	$1.38	9d	1	0.22mi
3587 Evers Cv Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1557	$1,979	$1.27	0d	1	0.30mi
3604 Prairie Wind Ct Middleburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1160	$1,650	$1.42	7d	1	0.44mi
656 Sunny Stroll Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1345	$1,779	$1.32	63d	1	0.46mi
827 Rivertree Pl Middleburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1160	$1,750	$1.51	9d	1	0.50mi
903 Rivertree Pl Middleburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1160	$1,665	$1.44	93d	1	0.53mi
903 Rivertree Pl Middleburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1160	$1,665	$1.44	82d	1	0.53mi
728 Sunny Stroll Dr Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.0	1860	$2,200	$1.18	119d	1	0.54mi
824 Integra Park Dr Middleburg, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1068	$2,438	$2.28	0d	20	0.67mi
816 Redtail Ln Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,100	$1.15	9d	1	0.88mi
3480 Waterford Oaks Dr Unit 22 Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1768	$1,500	$0.85	4d	1	0.99mi
3480 Waterford Oaks Dr Orange Park, FL	4.0	2.0	1768	$2,195	$1.24	0d	1	0.99mi
3349 Horseshoe Trail Dr Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1771	$2,060	$1.16	3d	1	1.01mi
670 Grover Ln Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1704	$1,950	$1.14	67d	1	1.14mi
607 Reese Ave Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1475	$1,800	$1.22	0d	1	1.17mi
619 Grover Ln Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1683	$1,895	$1.13	87d	1	1.19mi
3938 Bloomfield Ct Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1715	$2,275	$1.33	112d	1	1.20mi
3938 Bloomfield Ct Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1715	$2,195	$1.28	9d	1	1.20mi
1255 Bedrock Dr Orange Park, FL	4.0	2.0	1673	$2,271	$1.36	4d	1	1.24mi
979 Misty Maple Ct Orange Park, FL	4.0	2.0	1673	$2,145	$1.28	9d	1	1.30mi
3750 Silver Bluff Blvd Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5–3.0	1760	$1,850	$1.05	87d	1	1.32mi
3750 Silver Bluff Blvd Orange Park, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1862	$1,850	$0.99	97d	2	1.32mi
4007 Leatherwood Dr Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1817	$2,166	$1.19	57d	1	1.35mi
1064 Moosehead Dr Orange Park, FL	4.0	2.0	1713	$1,949	$1.14	67d	1	1.38mi
3899 Pebble Brooke Cir Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,990	$1.32	99d	1	1.47mi
3886 Pebble Brooke Cir Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,850	$1.23	119d	1	1.47mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association with monthly fee of $150Community amenities include park and playground

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (1-car garage)
• Utilities: Public sewerWater connectedSewer connectedElectricity connectedCable available
• Home design: Townhouse (attached)Residential property
• Construction: Fiber cement exterior
• Exterior features: Fenced (other)Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: DisposalElectric rangeENERGY STAR qualified dishwasherMicrowaveRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the second level)
• Flooring: CarpetTile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplanKitchen islandPantryPrimary bathroom with shower (no tub)Smart home featuresWalk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on upper levelElectric water heater

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $248,990 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $248,990 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $248,990 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $248,990 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $248,990 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $248,990 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $248,990 Active 94 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $248,990 Active 93 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $248,990 Active 92 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $248,990 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $248,990 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $248,990 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $248,990 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $248,990 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on marketlisting id $248,990 Active 81 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $248,990 Active 56 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $248,990 Active 55 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $248,990 Active 52 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $248,990 Active 50 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $248,990 Active 49 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $248,990 Active 48 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $248,990 Active 46 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $248,990 Active 45 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $248,990 Active 44 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $248,990 Active 43 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $248,990 Active 42 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $248,990 Active 41 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $248,990 Active 40 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $248,990 Active 39 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $248,990 Active 38 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $248,990 Active 37 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $248,990 Active 36 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $248,990 Active 35 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $248,990 Active 34 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $248,990 Active 33 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $248,990 Active 32 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $248,990 Active 31 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $248,990 Active 30 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $248,990 Active 29 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $248,990 Active 28 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $248,990 Active 27 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $248,990 Active 26 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $248,990 Active 25 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $248,990 Active 24 DOM
45. 2026-08-01
    price $248,990 Active 21 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $250,990 Active 21 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $250,990 Active 19 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $250,990 Active 18 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $250,990 Active 16 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $250,990 Active 14 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,004
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,947
• − Property taxes: −$3,735
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,080
• − Management: −$2,080
• − Depreciation: −$7,243
• Taxable loss: −$4,327
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,039
• After-tax cash flow: $933/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready townhouse is in excellent condition with modern amenities and a smart home package, making it ideal for both buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Smart home package — Enhances comfort and convenience for both buyers and renters ↑
• Both Smart thermostat control — Improves energy efficiency and comfort ↑
• Both Smart doorbell camera — Enhances security and convenience ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Tynes Elementary School B FL #552/2,144 Nat'l #5,798/41,679 Middle Oakleaf Junior High C+ FL #217/571 Nat'l #3,033/14,009 High Ridgeview High School D- FL #207/667 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Oakleaf Plantation

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #446
• US rank: #8083

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oakleaf Plantation, FL
• County: Clay County · 230,495 people
• City population: 40,366
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $84,431
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.99%
• Current HPI: 305.2531
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.35%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association with monthly fee of $150Community amenities include park and playground

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (1-car garage)
• Utilities: Public sewerWater connectedSewer connectedElectricity connectedCable available
• Home design: Townhouse (attached)Residential property
• Construction: Fiber cement exterior
• Exterior features: Fenced (other)Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: DisposalElectric rangeENERGY STAR qualified dishwasherMicrowaveRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the second level)
• Flooring: CarpetTile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplanKitchen islandPantryPrimary bathroom with shower (no tub)Smart home featuresWalk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on upper levelElectric water heater

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-05-20 Listed $239,990 realMLS