3151 NW 44th Ave #192 · Ocala, FL 34482

$89,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured · 195 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brand New Skyline Home - The Magnolia Be the first to own this beautifully designed 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom home featuring a half covered porch-perfect for relaxing outdoors. Price Includes: Complete set-up, A/C & heat, carport, skirting, driveway, storage shed, and essential appliances including refrigerator, stove, microwave, and dishwasher. Features: Drywall throughout, kitchen with stainless steel appliances, 60" enclosed shower in the master bath, steps and railings, and pre-plumbed washer/dryer hook-ups. Backed by a 12-month limited warranty for peace of mind. Photos are builder renderings and may vary depending on the selected floor plan.

Key facts

• Half covered porch
• 60 enclosed shower
• Garage

Tags

• HALF COVERED PORCH
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• 60 ENCLOSED SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.1% vs local median 4.2% in Ocala — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#476 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.1%/yr); 663 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 195 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,199 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 195 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.57%
• DSCR: 3.52
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.74×
• Total profit: $69,027
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 64.1%
• Equity multiple: 9.23×
• Total profit: $207,494
• Equity at exit: $7,781

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34482

• Rents YoY: 11.1%
• Active inventory: 663
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,291 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $1,121

Break-even live

Break-even rent $871

Max offer price $89,999

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4078 NW 44th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,500	$1.66	21d	1	1.03mi
4110 NW 44th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1610	$2,400	$1.49	13d	1	1.07mi
5048 NW 35th St Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,900	$1.22	13d	1	1.08mi
4859 NW 35th Lane Rd Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1666	$2,495	$1.50	21d	1	1.09mi
4111 NW 44th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1505	$2,300	$1.53	13d	1	1.09mi
4743 NW 39th Street Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1565	$2,500	$1.60	21d	1	1.11mi
3335 NW 52nd Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	2.0	2.5	1318	$2,500	$1.90	21d	1	1.18mi
5353 N US Highway 27 Ocala, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1169	$1,785	$1.53	21d	1	1.19mi
5191 NW 34th St Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1318	$2,400	$1.82	21d	1	1.21mi
2048 NW 50th Ave Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1062	$2,250	$2.12	21d	1	1.22mi
2038 NW 50th Ave Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1062	$2,250	$2.12	21d	1	1.23mi
2028 NW 50th Ave Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1066	$1,595	$1.50	21d	1	1.23mi
4122 NW 48th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1816	$1,999	$1.10	13d	1	1.26mi
1918 NW 50th Cir Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1061	$2,200	$2.07	21d	1	1.29mi
5333 NW 33rd Pl Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1368	$2,300	$1.68	13d	1	1.29mi
5361 NW 33rd Pl Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1318	$2,500	$1.90	21d	1	1.31mi
3384 NW 54th Ct Ocala, FL	2.0	2.5	1722	$2,300	$1.34	21d	1	1.40mi
5471 NW 34th St Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1318	$2,900	$2.20	21d	1	1.40mi
5423 NW 35th Lane Rd Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1656	$3,200	$1.93	21d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,999 Active 195 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,999 Active 194 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,999 Active 193 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,999 Active 191 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,999 Active 190 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,999 Active 188 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,999 Active 187 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,999 Active 186 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,999 Active 185 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,999 Active 181 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,999 Active 180 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,999 Active 178 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,999 Active 177 DOM
14. 2025-12-04
    listed $89,999 Active 662-char remark

    Show marketing remark (662 chars)

    Brand New Skyline Home - The Magnolia Be the first to own this beautifully designed 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom home featuring a half covered porch-perfect for relaxing outdoors. Price Includes: Complete set-up, A/C & heat, carport, skirting, driveway, storage shed, and essential appliances including refrigerator, stove, microwave, and dishwasher. Features: Drywall throughout, kitchen with stainless steel appliances, 60" enclosed shower in the master bath, steps and railings, and pre-plumbed washer/dryer hook-ups. Backed by a 12-month limited warranty for peace of mind. Photos are builder renderings and may vary depending on the selected floor plan.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,492
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$1,247
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,199
• − Management: −$2,199
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $12,836
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,081
• After-tax cash flow: $10,377/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained, move-in-ready manufactured home features a good condition with minimal repairs needed. Upgrades to exterior paint and smart home devices would significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace blinds with curtains — Improves privacy and aesthetic
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace blinds with curtains — Improves privacy and aesthetic ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ocala

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #8461

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 263,375
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,807
• Household income: $65,901
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 282.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 14% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.62%
• Current HPI: 194.3857
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.12%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-04 Listed $89,999 Zillow