30514 Wolfburn St · Houston, TX 77484

$192,295

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,118 sqft · SingleFamily · 2 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $92/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Appreciation +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0

Listing remarks

April completion. Prepare to fall in love with the functionality and charm of the single-story Bagwell plan by Centex. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this cozy home is designed for easy, relaxed living without unnecessary complexity. Store your holiday décor or fishing gear in your included storage right off the covered patio.

Key facts

• Single-story
• Covered patio
• Included storage

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY
• COVERED PATIO
• INCLUDED STORAGE

🏗️ New construction. The $192,295 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $196,768.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $192k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-131 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 1183 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $167,151 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.86%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $196,768
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30509 Bladnoch Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,118 (0%)	1mo	$198,405	$177	97
30522 Wolfburn St	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,118 (0%)	2mo	$189,795	$170	97
30530 Wolfburn St	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,118 (0%)	4mo	$197,295	$176	94
30525 Bladnoch Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,118 (0%)	6mo	$187,295	$168	92
30520 Wolfburn St	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-6%)	1mo	$187,245	$177	89
30528 Bladnoch Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,066 (-5%)	5mo	$192,245	$180	85
30519 Bladnoch Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-6%)	4mo	$179,990	$170	85
30533 Bladnoch Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,118 (0%)	4mo	$198,720	$178	83
23107 Daftmill Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,204 (+8%)	1mo	$239,230	$199	83
30524 Wolfburn St	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,256 (+12%)	2mo	$195,035	$155	74
30505 Bladnoch Ln	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,256 (+12%)	3mo	$217,780	$173	61
30531 Bladnoch Ln	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,256 (+12%)	7mo	$196,460	$156	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-45,066
• Equity at exit: $29,339

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-68,612
• Equity at exit: $17,013

Cash invested: $55,095 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77484

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 1183
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,672 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,032
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$246 /mo · $2,952/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$92
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $-131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,838

Max offer price $177,765

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $5	-5% $-63	+0% $-131	+5% $-199	+10% $-267
Rent	-10% $-263	-5% $-197	+0% $-131	+5% $-65	+10% $1
Rate	-1.0pp $-32	-0.5pp $-81	base $-131	+0.5pp $-182	+1.0pp $-234

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,192
• Closing costs: $5,903
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $92 · $1,104/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $192,295 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-28
   price $192,295
4. 2026-03-07
   listed $197,295 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,058
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,022
• − Property taxes: −$2,952
• − Insurance: −$984
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,605
• − Management: −$1,605
• − HOA: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$5,724
• Taxable loss: −$4,937
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,185
• After-tax cash flow: $-391/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home is in good condition with a fresh exterior and well-maintained interior. It's ready for a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value
• Both Interior cleaning — A clean interior can attract more buyers and renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Both Interior cleaning — A clean interior can attract more buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,348
• Household income: $81,250
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 270.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.17%
• Current HPI: 397.85
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $192,295 HARMLS
• 2026-03-07 Listed $197,295 HARMLS