465 Baltimore Ave · Cumberland, MD 21502

$97,000

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,770 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 152 Days on market

Built 1910 10,454 sqft lot Est $124k · 22% under ↓ 38% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investment property is here for you!! A duplex with 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths and the 2nd side has 2 bedrooms and 1.5 baths! Garage and open second lot, plenty of open space! New Roof in 2023, new furnace and all new windows Close to Hospital / Downtown / Allegany College and Highway 68 This property is being sold "as is" as the second duplex needs finished!

Key facts

• Close to hospital
• New furnace
• Open second lot

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW FURNACE
• NEW WINDOWS
• OPEN SECOND LOT
• CLOSE TO HOSPITAL
• CLOSE TO DOWNTOWN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership; Approximately 750 sq ft below grade (unfinished); Approximately 1,770 sq ft finished above grade; Total below-grade area listed as 750 (source: assessor)

Exterior

• Parking: Alley access; Off-site parking available
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available; Electric available; Water available
• Home design: Detached property; Architectural shingle roof
• Construction: Brick and combination construction; Stone and brick/mortar foundation; Year built (source: assessor)
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone; Above-grade and below-grade structures

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove; Refrigerator; Microwave; Freezer; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Five bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Vinyl; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (upper levels); One half bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Natural gas heat
• Interior features: Level entry to main floor; Basement with outside entrance and dirt floor
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer on the main floor; Electric hot water

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $97k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $676 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $97k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.7% vs local median 6.7% in Cumberland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#64 in MD, #2,385 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Allegany County Public Schools (other): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #18 of 24 in MD (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.9%/yr); 235 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 24 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $671 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Allegany County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $33k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.88%
• DSCR: 2.33
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $123,900
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
340 Davidson St	0.29mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,728 (-2%)	4mo	$169,900	$98	70
304 Park St	0.52mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,764 (-0%)	9mo	$46,000	$26	59
307 Helen St	0.28mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,966 (+11%)	13mo	$55,000	$28	53
603 Lincoln St	0.33mi	5/2.0	2,032 (+15%)	7mo	$179,900	$89	50
310 Williams St	0.66mi	5/2.0	1,880 (+6%)	11mo	$47,000	$25	46
147 Polk St	0.51mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,024 (+14%)	2mo	$55,000	$27	42
320 Columbia St	0.68mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,962 (+11%)	11mo	$138,000	$70	32
10007 Carrington Ct	0.70mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,916 (+8%)	17mo	$440,179	$230	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $35,689
• Equity at exit: $14,463

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.58×
• Total profit: $124,466
• Equity at exit: $8,387

Cash invested: $27,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21502

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: 10.9%
• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,582 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$509
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $295/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $676

Break-even live

Break-even rent $726

Max offer price $97,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,250
• Closing costs: $2,910
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
630 Hill Top Dr Cumberland, MD	5.0	1.5	2300	$1,495	$0.65	43d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $97,000 Active 152 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $97,000 Active 151 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $97,000 Active 150 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $97,000 Active 149 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $97,000 Active 148 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $97,000 Active 146 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $97,000 Active 145 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $97,000 Active 142 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $97,000 Active 141 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $97,000 Active 140 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $97,000 Active 135 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $97,000 Active 134 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $97,000 Active 133 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    pricedays on market $97,000 Active 132 DOM
15. 2026-05-25
    status Active
16. 2026-05-20
    status Active
17. 2026-05-20
    historical
18. 2026-04-25
    historical Active Under Contract
19. 2026-03-28
    price $99,900
20. 2026-03-05
    price $110,000
21. 2026-01-13
    price $119,900
22. 2025-12-20
    listed $129,900 Active
23. 2025-06-19
    historical
24. 2025-04-09
    price $135,000
25. 2025-04-02
    price $145,000
26. 2025-02-06
    price $150,000
27. 2024-12-13
    price $157,000
28. 2024-11-11
    listed $160,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $295 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $676 · $56/mo
• Expected delta: +$381/yr (+$32/mo · 129.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,988
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,434
• − Property taxes: −$295
• − Insurance: −$485
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,519
• − Management: −$1,519
• − Depreciation: −$2,822
• Taxable income: $6,915
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,660
• After-tax cash flow: $6,457/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Allegany County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400030
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $39,760
• Composite: 18.95/100
• National rank: #8854
• State rank: #18 of 24 in MD

Livability — Cumberland

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #64
• US rank: #2385

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cumberland, MD
• County: Allegany County · 41,015 people
• City population: 41,015
• Metro: Cumberland, MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 41,015
• Household income: $60,725
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 824.0

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,778 people
• By 2030: 66,766 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 62,784 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 59,179 · -14.0%
• By 2075: 50,732 · -26.2%
• By 2100: 40,837 · -40.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 9% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.3) · D 28.9% · R 69.2% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -25.9pp · 2024: -40.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.3 2020: R+38.3 2016: R+48.0 2012: R+32.9 2008: R+25.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.33%
• Current HPI: 258.6676
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.88%
• Metro: Cumberland, MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-37.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-20 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-20 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-25 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $99,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $110,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $119,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-20 Listed $129,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-19 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-09 Price Changed $135,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-02 Price Changed $145,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-02-06 Price Changed $150,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-12-13 Price Changed $157,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-11-11 Listed $160,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $295 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.