12970 Hwy 8 Business Spc 111 · Winter Gardens, CA 92021

$219,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Land · 31 Days on market

Built 1972

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully remodeled 4-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home located in a desirable all-ages community! This move-in ready home has been completely updated from top to bottom with modern finishes throughout. Enjoy a brand-new kitchen featuring updated cabinetry, countertops, and stainless steel appliances. The spacious layout offers comfortable living with plenty of room for family, guests, or a home office. Situated on a prime corner lot, the property features a fenced yard perfect for kids or pets. A rare opportunity to own a turnkey home in a great park with convenient access to nearby shopping, dining, and amenities!

Key facts

• Turnkey home
• Fenced yard
• Brand-new kitchen

Tags

• BRAND-NEW KITCHEN
• UPDATED CABINETRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• FENCED YARD
• CORNER LOT
• TURNKEY HOME

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Rancho Valley community (El Cajon)
• HOA & community: Community pool and clubhouse

Exterior

• Parking: Tandem parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: Metal roof
• Exterior features: Full fencing; Community pool; Community clubhouse; Community spa/hot tub

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Gas range; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 bedrooms possible
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Gas cooktop; Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (natural gas)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $219k).
• Recommended offer: $212k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 2.6% in Winter Gardens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#515 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Grossmont Union High (suburban): math 31% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #173 of 517 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: W. D. Hall Elementary (540 students, 81% FRL); Greenfield Middle (663 students, 84% FRL); El Capitan High (math 20% / reading 54%, grade F, #578 of 1,170 statewide, top 51%, 1,825 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 17% district-wide (56 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 244 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,440/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 4178% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $61k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 39 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask is 33% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $219k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,430 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.57%
• DSCR: 2.05
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $31,193
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $87,186
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92021

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 244
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,440 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$274 /mo · $3,285/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$722
• Net cashflow: $1,204

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,916

Max offer price $219,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,356	-5% $1,280	+0% $1,204	+5% $1,129	+10% $1,053
Rent	-10% $933	-5% $1,069	+0% $1,204	+5% $1,340	+10% $1,476
Rate	-1.0pp $1,315	-0.5pp $1,260	base $1,204	+0.5pp $1,148	+1.0pp $1,090

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2000 E Main St El Cajon, CA	3.0	1.5–2.5	1165	$3,300	$2.83	0d	1	0.11mi
1704 Broadway El Cajon, CA	4.0	2.0	1808	$4,800	$2.65	9d	1	1.00mi
8809 Los Coches Rd Lakeside, CA	4.0	2.0	1350	$3,800	$2.81	0d	1	1.01mi
8031 Winter Gardens Blvd El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.0	1124	$2,995	$2.66	0d	1	1.04mi
8424 Pueblo Rd Unit 8424 Lakeside, CA	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,750	$2.75	0d	1	1.05mi
9092 Los Coches Rd Lakeside, CA	3.0	2.5	1300	$4,000	$3.08	3d	1	1.21mi
9094 Los Coches Rd Lakeside, CA	3.0	2.5	1200	$4,000	$3.33	0d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $219,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $219,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2012-09-25
    price $38,500
17. 2012-09-25
    price $38,500
18. 2012-09-25
    price $38,500
19. 2007-07-27
    historical
20. 2007-03-31
    historical
21. 2007-03-31
    historical
22. 2007-03-31
    historical
23. 2007-03-31
    historical
24. 2007-03-15
    soldstatus $135,000
25. 2007-03-04
    historical
26. 2007-03-04
    historical
27. 2007-03-01
    listed $165,000
28. 2007-02-28
    historical
29. 2007-02-18
    historical
30. 2007-02-18
    historical
31. 2007-02-15
    listed $74,900
32. 2007-02-15
    listed $74,900
33. 2007-02-11
    listed $59,900
34. 2007-02-11
    listed $59,900
35. 2006-12-31
    historical
36. 2006-12-31
    historical
37. 2006-12-01
    historical
38. 2006-12-01
    historical
39. 2006-10-21
    historical
40. 2006-10-19
    listed $139,900
41. 2006-09-22
    listed $200,000
42. 2006-09-04
    listed $180,000
43. 2006-09-04
    listed $180,000
44. 2006-08-25
    historical
45. 2006-08-25
    historical
46. 2006-08-10
    historical
47. 2006-08-10
    historical
48. 2006-07-17
    historical
49. 2006-07-04
    listed $49,000
50. 2006-06-25
    listed $52,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥98°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,284
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$3,285
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,303
• − Management: −$3,303
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable income: $11,661
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,799
• After-tax cash flow: $11,655/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grossmont Union High
• NCES district ID: 0616230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,801
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3810
• State rank: #173 of 517 in CA

Livability — Winter Gardens

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #515
• US rank: #17448

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Gardens, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 70,501
• Household income: $74,013
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 4178.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 14% Black 6% Asian 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Arab 6% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 7% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -654.88%
• Current HPI: 335.0617
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.83%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-94.6% since first listed

86 events — show timeline

• 2012-09-25 Price Changed $38,500 CRMLS
• 2012-09-25 Price Changed $38,500 CRMLS
• 2012-09-25 Price Changed $38,500 CRMLS
• 2007-07-27 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2007-03-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2007-03-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2007-03-31 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2007-03-31 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2007-03-15 Sold (MLS) $135,000 CRMLS
• 2007-03-04 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2007-03-04 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2007-03-01 Listed $165,000 SDMLS
• 2007-02-28 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2007-02-18 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2007-02-18 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2007-02-15 Listed $74,900 CRMLS
• 2007-02-15 Listed $74,900 SDMLS
• 2007-02-11 Listed $59,900 CRMLS
• 2007-02-11 Listed $59,900 SDMLS
• 2006-12-31 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2006-12-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2006-12-01 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2006-12-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2006-10-21 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2006-10-19 Listed $139,900 CRMLS
• 2006-09-22 Listed $200,000 SDMLS
• 2006-09-04 Listed $180,000 CRMLS
• 2006-09-04 Listed $180,000 SDMLS
• 2006-08-25 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2006-08-25 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2006-08-10 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2006-08-10 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2006-07-17 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2006-07-04 Listed $49,000 SDMLS
• 2006-06-25 Listed $52,000 SDMLS
• 2006-06-25 Listed $52,000 CRMLS
• 2006-06-01 Listed $95,000 SDMLS
• 2006-06-01 Listed $95,000 CRMLS
• 2006-05-11 Listed $155,000 CRMLS
• 2006-05-11 Listed $155,000 SDMLS
• 2006-04-21 Listed $47,500 SDMLS
• 2006-02-25 Listed $199,500 CRMLS
• 2006-02-25 Listed $199,500 SDMLS
• 2006-02-10 Listed $124,900 SDMLS
• 2006-02-10 Listed $124,900 CRMLS
• 2006-01-12 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2005-08-27 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2005-08-27 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2005-07-12 Listed $45,000 SDMLS
• 2005-06-28 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2005-06-28 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2004-12-28 Listed $25,000 CRMLS
• 2004-12-28 Listed $25,000 SDMLS
• 2004-11-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2004-11-01 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2004-10-02 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2004-10-02 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2004-09-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2004-09-30 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2004-08-02 Listed $25,000 CRMLS
• 2004-08-02 Listed $25,000 SDMLS
• 2004-03-31 Listed $25,000 CRMLS
• 2004-03-31 Listed $25,000 SDMLS
• 2004-02-28 Listed $95,000 CRMLS
• 2004-02-28 Listed $95,000 SDMLS
• 2004-02-09 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2003-10-16 Listed $79,900 SDMLS
• 2003-08-10 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2003-06-22 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2003-05-30 Sold (MLS) $24,500 CRMLS
• 2003-04-21 Listed $99,950 CRMLS
• 2003-04-21 Listed $99,950 SDMLS
• 2003-04-09 Listed $24,900 CRMLS
• 2003-03-29 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2003-03-29 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2003-03-12 Listed $45,000 SDMLS
• 2003-03-03 Listed $45,000 CRMLS
• 2003-03-03 Listed $45,000 SDMLS
• 2003-02-20 Sold (MLS) $57,900 CRMLS
• 2003-02-10 Listed $70,000 SDMLS
• 2002-08-21 Listed $56,000 CRMLS
• 2001-12-04 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2001-12-04 Price Changed $719,000 CRMLS
• 2001-12-04 Price Changed $719,000 CRMLS
• 2001-11-26 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2001-11-26 Listing Removed — CRMLS

Property tax history

+38.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $134,966 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.