626 Flintstone Dr · Canyon Lake, TX 78133

$205,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,484 sqft · Manufactured public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1972 10,454 sqft lot $138/sqft · 6% below area Est $292k · 30% under $2/mo HOA ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Unique and spacious home! 5 Bedrooms and 3 Full bathrooms, ALL furniture will convey! This beautifully remodeled manufactured home has a perfect blend of modern upgrades and cozy charm. The open-concept living space features fresh, contemporary finishes including new hardwood laminate flooring throughout, fresh paint, and updated lighting fixtures. The kitchen has been remodeled with sleek new all electric appliances, quartz countertops, and a stylish backsplash that adds a pop of color. There are so many new and remodeled details throughout the home, all new electrical wiring, one new central A/C unit, new gorgeous walk in showers, foam insulation roofing, the list goes on! Great front out

Key facts

• Remodeled kitchen
• 0.24 acre lot
• Community pool

Tags

• REMODELED MANUFACTURED HOME
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• NEW HARDWOOD LAMINATE FLOORING
• UPDATED LIGHTING FIXTURES
• REMODELED KITCHEN
• NEW ELECTRIC APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other:
• Financial info:
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; HOA fee $24 annually; Association transfer fee $100; Community amenities include pool, park/playground, and BBQ/grill

Exterior

• Parking:
• Security:
• Utilities: Electric service by PEC; Water service by TWC; Septic system; Other water/sewer info available; Garbage service by HCWS
• Home design: Pre-owned property; Subdivision: Canyon Lake Mobile Home
• Construction: Approximately 54 years old; Stucco exterior; Vinyl exterior; Metal structure; Other foundation (see remarks); Other roof type (see remarks)
• Exterior features: Partial fence; Sprinkler system; Storage building / shed; Mature trees; Street paved; Canyon Lake nearby

Interior

• Kitchen: Cook top; Built-in oven; Double ovens; Microwave oven; Stove/Range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom with full bath; Bedroom 2 (11 x 10); Bedroom 3 (11 x 13); Bedroom 4 (11 x 11); Bedroom 5 (13 x 15); Master bedroom dimensions 11 x 11
• Flooring: Carpeting; Wood flooring; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; Master bath with tub/shower combination (10 x 4)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Two central air conditioning units
• Interior features: Open floor plan; 1 living area; Ceiling fans; All window coverings remain; Laundry room; Private garbage service
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Washer connection; Dryer connection; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $443 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $205k).
• Recommended offer: $199k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 2.3% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Startzville El (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 465 students, 68% FRL); Canyon Lake H S (math 46% / reading 56%, grade D+, #482 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 1,038 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 31% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1014 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $198,850 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.26%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $291,846
• List price: $205,000
• Delta: -29.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1234 Deer Run Pass	0.40mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,475 (-1%)	16mo	$229,900	$156	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-11,450
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,467
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78133

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 1014
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,178 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,384/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$2
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $443

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,617

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1219 Lakeside Dr E Canyon Lake, TX	4.0	2.0	1216	$2,180	$1.79	4d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $2 · $24/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $205,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $205,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-07
    listed $205,000 New 987-char remark
15. 2026-04-09
    historical
16. 2026-01-22
    historical $1,500
17. 2025-10-14
    listed $1,500
18. 2025-10-13
    listed $215,000 New
19. 2025-10-09
    historical $1,500
20. 2025-10-07
    historical
21. 2025-09-14
    listed $1,500
22. 2025-05-17
    price $217,000
23. 2024-12-05
    listed $230,000 New
24. 2023-04-13
    soldstatus
25. 2017-11-28
    soldstatus
26. 1980-12-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,384 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,752 · $313/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,368/yr (+$197/mo · 171.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,135
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$1,384
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,091
• − Management: −$2,091
• − HOA: −$24
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable income: $2,074
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$498
• After-tax cash flow: $4,816/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Lake, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 42,159
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,959
• Household income: $83,853
• Rent vs Own: 15.2% rent · 84.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.36%
• Current HPI: 218.4633
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $205,000 LERA
• 2026-04-09 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2026-01-22 Rental Removed $1,500 SABOR
• 2025-10-14 Listed for Rent $1,500 SABOR
• 2025-10-13 Listed $215,000 LERA
• 2025-10-09 Rental Removed $1,500 SABOR
• 2025-10-07 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-09-14 Listed for Rent $1,500 SABOR
• 2025-05-17 Price Changed $217,000 LERA
• 2024-12-05 Listed $230,000 LERA
• 2023-04-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-11-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1980-12-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,384 · +56.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.