5031 4th St E · South Bradenton, FL 34203

$115,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2008 Est $81k · 41% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

What you see is what you get! You can't get more turn key than this. Perfect cozy nest for wintering in Florida or a great place for someone looking to pare down and move into a quiet neighborhood. Minutes from Cortez BLVD and shopping and only about 3 minutes from the beach. This gem of a home has been updated with new waterproof laminate flooring, updated plumbing and electrical and a new AC unit to keep the place cool in the hot Florida Summers! Great outdoor enclosed patio area to have some coffee and relax during the morning or just hang out in the evening. This is phenomenal find in a very desirable park where homes are hard to come by! don't miss this opportunity to grab a great place in a great location!

Key facts

• Newer ac unit
• Updated electrical
• New vapor barrier

Tags

• UPDATED PLUMBING
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL
• NEWER AC UNIT
• NEW VAPOR BARRIER
• FRESH COAT OF EXTERIOR PAINT
• OUTDOOR ENCLOSED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $657 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 4.1% in South Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in FL, #3,092 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime D+, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 384 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,275 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.47%
• DSCR: 2.09
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $81,312
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
302 52nd Avenue Ter E	0.25mi	2/2.0	728 (+8%)	1mo	$170,000	$234	69
108 50th Avenue Dr W	0.24mi	1/1.0 (-1)	612 (-9%)	10mo	$30,000	$49	61
214 52nd Avenue Dr W	0.36mi	3/1.5 (+1)	728 (+8%)	3mo	$87,900	$121	60
415 Dublin Ave	0.66mi	2/1.0	624 (-7%)	3mo	$50,000	$80	55
403 51st Avenue Dr W	0.38mi	1/1.0 (-1)	740 (+10%)	8mo	$37,000	$50	54
808 53rd Ave E Unit 226L	0.42mi	2/1.5	768 (+14%)	10mo	$128,750	$168	47
719 50th Avenue Ter W	0.61mi	2/1.5	770 (+15%)	3mo	$95,000	$123	42
718 50th Avenue Dr W	0.61mi	1/2.0 (-1)	724 (+8%)	10mo	$49,000	$68	42
5022 9th St W	0.69mi	1/1.0 (-1)	576 (-14%)	2mo	$85,000	$148	38
5504 Bermuda Ct	0.63mi	1/1.0 (-1)	576 (-14%)	5mo	$59,000	$102	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $18,046
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $49,681
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34203

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 384
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,751 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $905/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $657

Break-even live

Break-even rent $920

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4903 2nd B St E Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	624	$2,400	$3.85	24d	1	0.21mi
110 52nd Avenue Ter E Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	684	$1,450	$2.12	24d	1	0.30mi
205 52nd Avenue Dr W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	528	$1,200	$2.27	24d	1	0.33mi
304 47th Avenue Dr W #112 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	725	$1,200	$1.66	24d	1	0.55mi
707 50th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	730	$1,150	$1.58	24d	1	0.59mi
4507 3rd Street Cir W #280 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	660	$1,300	$1.97	16d	1	0.63mi
915 50th Avenue Plz W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,200	$1.71	24d	1	0.73mi
1345 301 Blvd E Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	872	$1,320	$1.51	24d	9	0.80mi
350 34th Avenue Dr E Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	893	$1,335	$1.49	2d	6	1.15mi
5531 16th St W Unit 5537 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,650	$2.20	3d	1	1.28mi
616 33rd Ave E Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	750	$1,600	$2.13	24d	1	1.29mi
5001 22nd St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	729	$1,700	$2.33	16d	1	1.46mi
1308 36th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	715	$1,199	$1.68	24d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-12
   listed $115,000 Active
2. 2022-01-07
   soldstatus $109,000 Closed 721-char remark

   Show marketing remark (721 chars)

   What you see is what you get! You can't get more turn key than this. Perfect cozy nest for wintering in Florida or a great place for someone looking to pare down and move into a quiet neighborhood. Minutes from Cortez BLVD and shopping and only about 3 minutes from the beach. This gem of a home has been updated with new waterproof laminate flooring, updated plumbing and electrical and a new AC unit to keep the place cool in the hot Florida Summers! Great outdoor enclosed patio area to have some coffee and relax during the morning or just hang out in the evening. This is phenomenal find in a very desirable park where homes are hard to come by! don't miss this opportunity to grab a great place in a great location!

3. 2022-01-07
   soldstatus $109,000

   Show marketing remark (721 chars)

   What you see is what you get! You can't get more turn key than this. Perfect cozy nest for wintering in Florida or a great place for someone looking to pare down and move into a quiet neighborhood. Minutes from Cortez BLVD and shopping and only about 3 minutes from the beach. This gem of a home has been updated with new waterproof laminate flooring, updated plumbing and electrical and a new AC unit to keep the place cool in the hot Florida Summers! Great outdoor enclosed patio area to have some coffee and relax during the morning or just hang out in the evening. This is phenomenal find in a very desirable park where homes are hard to come by! don't miss this opportunity to grab a great place in a great location!

4. 2021-12-09
   status Pending 721-char remark

   Show marketing remark (721 chars)

   What you see is what you get! You can't get more turn key than this. Perfect cozy nest for wintering in Florida or a great place for someone looking to pare down and move into a quiet neighborhood. Minutes from Cortez BLVD and shopping and only about 3 minutes from the beach. This gem of a home has been updated with new waterproof laminate flooring, updated plumbing and electrical and a new AC unit to keep the place cool in the hot Florida Summers! Great outdoor enclosed patio area to have some coffee and relax during the morning or just hang out in the evening. This is phenomenal find in a very desirable park where homes are hard to come by! don't miss this opportunity to grab a great place in a great location!

5. 2021-11-01
   price $117,500 721-char remark

   Show marketing remark (721 chars)

   What you see is what you get! You can't get more turn key than this. Perfect cozy nest for wintering in Florida or a great place for someone looking to pare down and move into a quiet neighborhood. Minutes from Cortez BLVD and shopping and only about 3 minutes from the beach. This gem of a home has been updated with new waterproof laminate flooring, updated plumbing and electrical and a new AC unit to keep the place cool in the hot Florida Summers! Great outdoor enclosed patio area to have some coffee and relax during the morning or just hang out in the evening. This is phenomenal find in a very desirable park where homes are hard to come by! don't miss this opportunity to grab a great place in a great location!

6. 2021-10-14
   listed $120,000 Active 721-char remark

   Show marketing remark (721 chars)

   What you see is what you get! You can't get more turn key than this. Perfect cozy nest for wintering in Florida or a great place for someone looking to pare down and move into a quiet neighborhood. Minutes from Cortez BLVD and shopping and only about 3 minutes from the beach. This gem of a home has been updated with new waterproof laminate flooring, updated plumbing and electrical and a new AC unit to keep the place cool in the hot Florida Summers! Great outdoor enclosed patio area to have some coffee and relax during the morning or just hang out in the evening. This is phenomenal find in a very desirable park where homes are hard to come by! don't miss this opportunity to grab a great place in a great location!

7. 2019-04-29
   soldstatus $65,000
8. 2002-06-26
   soldstatus $37,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $905 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $954 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: +$49/yr (+$4/mo · 5.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,010
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$905
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,681
• − Management: −$1,681
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $6,381
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,531
• After-tax cash flow: $6,349/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — South Bradenton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3092

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,618
• Household income: $70,761
• Rent vs Own: 27.3% rent · 72.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1469.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Black 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Vietnamese 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.87%
• Current HPI: 295.8871
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.97%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+210.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $115,000 FSBO.com
• 2022-01-07 Sold (Public Records) $109,000 Public Records
• 2022-01-07 Sold (MLS) $109,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-01 Price Changed $117,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-14 Listed $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2002-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $905 · -3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.