5906 Ayleshire Rd · Baltimore, MD 21239

$130,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,690 sqft · Townhouse public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1942

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This exceptional residential fixer-upper, located in the desirable Loch Raven neighborhood, presents a compelling investment opportunity. The traditional twin/semi-detached design, constructed with durable brick, offers a timeless aesthetic that appeals to a broad market. Spanning 2,064 total square feet, the interior features a traditional floor plan enhanced by hardwood flooring and ample natural light, creating an inviting atmosphere. The property comprises three well-appointed bedrooms and one and a half bathrooms, providing comfortable living spaces. A full basement with windows offers potential for additional living space or rental income, enhancing the property's value. The presence

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Level rear yard
• Durable brick

Tags

• LOCH RAVEN NEIGHBORHOOD
• DURABLE BRICK
• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• FULL BASEMENT WITH WINDOWS
• FIREPLACE
• LEVEL REAR YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Side-entry attached garage (1 garage space); Driveway parking (2 spaces); On-street parking — total of 3 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service available; Phone available
• Home design: Semi-detached property; Three stories / three levels
• Construction: Brick construction; Slate roof; Other foundation; Daylight, partial and full basement with windows
• Exterior features: Backs to trees; Level yard; Rear yard

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Radiator heating; Window air conditioning units (electric)
• Interior features: Traditional floor plan; Attic; Plaster and drywall walls; Masonry detailing; 1 fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $541 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 71 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $67k; list at $130k implies a 95% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.83%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $277,160
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5906 Ayleshire Rd	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,690 (0%)	1mo	$155,900	$92	100
1526 Wadsworth Way	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-5%)	1mo	$279,900	$175	80
1506 Gleneagle Rd	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,520 (-10%)	1mo	$300,000	$197	76
1371 E Northern Pkwy	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,567 (-7%)	3mo	$269,900	$172	74
1600 Walterswood Rd	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,520 (-10%)	2mo	$231,000	$152	67
1542 E Belvedere Ave	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,824 (+8%)	2mo	$283,500	$155	65
1625 Woodbourne Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,760 (+4%)	1mo	$234,500	$133	64
2013 Ramblewood Rd	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (+6%)	1mo	$290,000	$161	55
1613 Winford Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,785 (+6%)	3mo	$293,000	$164	52
1702 Burnwood Rd	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-5%)	1mo	$283,000	$177	51
1432 Walker Ave	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,464 (-13%)	3mo	$280,000	$191	45
5413 Hillen Rd	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,920 (+14%)	2mo	$265,000	$138	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.86% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $13,225
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $55,211
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21239

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,006 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$308 /mo · $3,696/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $541

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,321

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1508 Gleneagle Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1824	$2,180	$1.20	4d	1	0.07mi
1646 Wadsworth Way Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1520	$2,100	$1.38	11d	1	0.23mi
1444 Meridene Dr Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1520	$1,950	$1.28	43d	1	0.36mi
1726 E Belvedere Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1140	$1,895	$1.66	21d	1	0.43mi
6101 Loch Raven Blvd Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1138	$2,318	$2.04	2d	8	0.44mi
1908 E Belvedere Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1425	$1,950	$1.37	20d	1	0.51mi
1111 Gleneagle Rd Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1452	$1,050	$0.72	43d	1	0.57mi
1106 Gleneagle Rd Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,450	$1.32	43d	1	0.59mi
5781 Edgepark Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,975	$1.26	16d	1	0.59mi
6405 Loch Crest Rd Idlewylde, MD	3.0	2.5	1440	$2,257	$1.57	43d	1	0.62mi
5520 Sagra Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1650	$1,900	$1.15	43d	1	0.62mi
6149 Dunroming Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,895	$1.35	11d	1	0.71mi
2028 Hillenwood Rd Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1820	$2,100	$1.15	21d	1	0.72mi
1804 Winford Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1600	$2,100	$1.31	24d	1	0.72mi
6518 Loch Hill Ct Loch Hill, MD	3.0	1.5	1580	$2,050	$1.30	24d	1	0.74mi
2106 Cloville Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1080	$1,700	$1.57	43d	1	0.74mi
1104 Meridene Dr Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1098	$1,350	$1.23	43d	1	0.81mi
917 Reverdy Rd Unit A Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,100	$1.75	43d	1	0.89mi
6189 Northwood Dr Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,200	$1.57	43d	1	0.90mi
5626 Midwood Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1452	$1,100	$0.76	24d	1	0.91mi
5622 Midwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1452	$2,300	$1.58	43d	1	0.91mi
1020 Dartmouth Glen Way Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1152	$2,250	$1.95	24d	1	0.92mi
828 Saint Dunstans Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1544	$2,000	$1.30	24d	1	0.94mi
1008 Tunbridge Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1732	$2,050	$1.18	24d	1	0.94mi
5204 Kelway Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1666	$2,350	$1.41	24d	1	0.95mi
6159 Parkway Dr Apt 1 Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1408	$2,200	$1.56	24d	1	0.96mi
6159 Parkway Dr Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1408	$2,200	$1.56	21d	1	0.96mi
1221 Glenwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1390	$2,595	$1.87	43d	1	1.00mi
818 Bradhurst Rd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1216	$1,250	$1.03	43d	1	1.07mi
818 Bradhurst Rd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1216	$1,350	$1.11	3d	1	1.07mi
620 Harwood Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	2056	$1,350	$0.66	43d	1	1.14mi
1224 Winston Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1248	$2,100	$1.68	17d	1	1.16mi
7202 Sindall Rd Unit 7202 Parkville, MD	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,850	$1.37	43d	1	1.20mi
1545 E Cold Spring Ln Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1240	$2,000	$1.61	43d	1	1.22mi
1127 Deanwood Rd Parkville, MD	3.0	2.0	1730	$2,350	$1.36	43d	1	1.24mi
6008 Clearspring Rd Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.5	1758	$3,600	$2.05	24d	1	1.24mi
6612 Birchwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1122	$2,300	$2.05	20d	1	1.27mi
1629 Wentworth Ave Parkville, MD	3.0	1.5	1152	$1,895	$1.64	43d	1	1.30mi
2805 Hamilton Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1416	$2,300	$1.62	43d	1	1.30mi
2804 Christopher Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1280	$2,200	$1.72	24d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-16
   listed $130,000 Active
3. 1986-12-05
   soldstatus $66,600
4. 1983-03-07
   soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,696 · $308/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,696 · $308/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,074
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$3,696
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,926
• − Management: −$1,926
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $4,812
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,155
• After-tax cash flow: $5,336/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 27,346
• Household income: $62,650
• Rent vs Own: 44.8% rent · 55.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1103.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 76% White 12% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, United Kingdom, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -164.48%
• Current HPI: 258.094
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.86%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+116.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-16 Listed $130,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1986-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $66,600 Public Records
• 1983-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,696 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.