6416 Saddletree Dr · Wesley Chapel, FL 33544

$299,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Manufactured public records · 124 Days on market

Built 1983 0.52 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity to own in one of the fastest growing cities in America. This three bedroom 2 bath home has tons of potential. The large family room is unfinished and is waiting for a new owner's special touch. The home also has a storage shed that could be converted into more living area. The large yard is ideal for entertaining during those lovely Florida nights. This is a HUD owned property. HUD Case #093-611128. Buyer to verify all Information including HOA fees if applicable. All HUD properties are sold As Is without any warranty or guarantee by the seller. No pre or post contract repairs or credits.

Key facts

• New siding
• New flooring
• New paint

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW PAINT
• NEW ELECTRIC WATER HEATER
• FULLY RENOVATED BATHROOMS
• NEW SIDING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Direction: US HWY 54 to South on Old Pasco Rd. Left on Dayflower to Right on Angus Valley. Left on Glenwood to Right on Saddletree to address on right.; Lot size about 0.52 acres (approximately 1/2 to less than 1 acre)
• HOA & community: No association; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; Open parking; Oversized parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Residential manufactured home (double wide); Completed condition; 2 stories (multi/split levels); Faces west; Entry level information not specified
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Building area listed as 1,404 total (living area source: public records/appraiser)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Exterior lighting; Private mailbox; Chain link and vinyl fencing; Cleared lot; Paved public maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Dishwasher; Microwave; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Stone counters; Thermostat; Smoke detector(s); Bonus room; Interior in-law suite with private entry; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup (electric); Laundry closet; Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $31 ($371/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Quail Hollow Elementary School (math 45% / reading 49%, grade D-, #1,191 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 543 students, 61% FRL); Cypress Creek High School (math 48% / reading 56%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 1,851 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $300k implies a 679% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,515 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.44%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $132,480
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6416 Candlewood Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+13%)	1mo	$263,250	$211	74
26804 Chianina Dr	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-4%)	14mo	$115,000	$109	69
6448 Candlewood Dr	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (-13%)	2mo	$115,000	$120	63
6633 Dog Rose Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	960 (-13%)	14mo	$254,900	$266	50
26546 Glenwood Dr	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,225 (+11%)	4mo	$145,000	$118	48
26418 Dayflower Blvd	0.75mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+13%)	6mo	$145,000	$116	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-53,637
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-71,216
• Equity at exit: $25,938

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33544

• Home prices YoY: -24.1%
• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,345 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,482/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,306

Max offer price $299,999

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $201	-5% $116	+0% $31	+5% $-54	+10% $-139
Rent	-10% $-154	-5% $-62	+0% $31	+5% $124	+10% $216
Rate	-1.0pp $182	-0.5pp $107	base $31	+0.5pp $-47	+1.0pp $-126

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27560 York Harbor Pl Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1463	$2,142	$1.46	0d	7	0.83mi
Address Not Available PL Zephyrhills, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1011	$1,960	$1.94	0d	25	0.87mi
5561 Post Oak Blvd Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1046	$2,055	$1.96	0d	11	0.91mi
5291 Post Oak Blvd Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1068	$2,439	$2.28	2d	14	1.07mi
5930 War Admiral Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1485	$2,150	$1.45	18d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,999 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,999 Active 123 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,999 Active 122 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,999 Active 121 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,999 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,999 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   remarks 693-char remark
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,999 Active 114 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,999 Active 113 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,999 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,999 Active 109 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,999 Active 108 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,999 Active 107 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,999 Active 106 DOM
15. 2026-04-07
    status Active
16. 2026-03-07
    status Pending
17. 2026-02-18
    price $299,999
18. 2026-01-29
    price $315,000
19. 2026-01-14
    listed $325,000 Active
20. 2024-03-14
    historical $2,995
21. 2023-11-17
    listed $2,995
22. 2017-05-18
    soldstatus $38,500 Sold 613-char remark

    Show marketing remark (613 chars)

    Great opportunity to own in one of the fastest growing cities in America. This three bedroom 2 bath home has tons of potential. The large family room is unfinished and is waiting for a new owner's special touch. The home also has a storage shed that could be converted into more living area. The large yard is ideal for entertaining during those lovely Florida nights. This is a HUD owned property. HUD Case #093-611128. Buyer to verify all Information including HOA fees if applicable. All HUD properties are sold As Is without any warranty or guarantee by the seller. No pre or post contract repairs or credits.

23. 2017-04-15
    status Pending 613-char remark

    Show marketing remark (613 chars)

    Great opportunity to own in one of the fastest growing cities in America. This three bedroom 2 bath home has tons of potential. The large family room is unfinished and is waiting for a new owner's special touch. The home also has a storage shed that could be converted into more living area. The large yard is ideal for entertaining during those lovely Florida nights. This is a HUD owned property. HUD Case #093-611128. Buyer to verify all Information including HOA fees if applicable. All HUD properties are sold As Is without any warranty or guarantee by the seller. No pre or post contract repairs or credits.

24. 2017-04-02
    listed $42,000 Active 613-char remark

    Show marketing remark (613 chars)

    Great opportunity to own in one of the fastest growing cities in America. This three bedroom 2 bath home has tons of potential. The large family room is unfinished and is waiting for a new owner's special touch. The home also has a storage shed that could be converted into more living area. The large yard is ideal for entertaining during those lovely Florida nights. This is a HUD owned property. HUD Case #093-611128. Buyer to verify all Information including HOA fees if applicable. All HUD properties are sold As Is without any warranty or guarantee by the seller. No pre or post contract repairs or credits.

25. 1997-11-17
    soldstatus $24,000
26. 1994-12-05
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,482 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,490 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,008/yr (+$84/mo · 68.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,142
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$1,482
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,251
• − Management: −$2,251
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$4,875
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,170
• After-tax cash flow: $1,541/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,901
• Household income: $104,573
• Rent vs Own: 32.9% rent · 67.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 378.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 20% Black 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.76%
• Current HPI: 266.5191
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.30%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+757.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $299,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $315,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-14 Listed $325,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-14 Rental Removed $2,995 APPFOLIO
• 2023-11-17 Listed for Rent $2,995 APPFOLIO
• 2017-05-18 Sold (MLS) $38,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-02 Listed $42,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records
• 1994-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,482 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.