1219 Navy Blvd · Upper Grand Lagoon, FL 32408

$259,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 920 sqft · Other · 143 Days on market

Built 2005 3,266 sqft lot $282/sqft · 16% below area Est $309k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This recently renovated home is located in a quiet gated community across from the Naval Support Activity in Panama City Beach, FL. It is close to many restaurants, shopping, Bay Point Golf Course, and a short drive to the emerald coast white sandy beaches. The home includes a brand-new redesigned kitchen, and primary suite with a large closet. The primary bathroom was redesigned and has a beautiful walk-in shower. A new laundry area was created and additional cabinets were added for plenty of storage. A new 2-car carport was added, which can be used for parking or a nice outdoor covered space. This property is move-in ready, and is perfect as a primary residence, summer home, or as an income-producing investment. The well-manicured community offers a large clubhouse with an exercise room. There are 2 pools and 1 hot tub located by the clubhouse and in the center of the community. This site includes a large pond with a boardwalk around the entire area where residents can fish or feed the turtles. The social committee offers weekly and monthly activities, something for everyone to enjoy. HOA fees include water, sewer, trash, TV and lawn care. An on-site property manager is located daily in the clubhouse, and an on-duty maintenance supervisor is available for any needs.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Large closet
• New laundry area

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• REDESIGNED KITCHEN
• LARGE CLOSET
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• NEW LAUNDRY AREA
• ADDITIONAL CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-343 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (19.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (29.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.2% in Upper Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1022 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $175k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,926 (29.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.66%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $308,599
• List price: $259,900
• Delta: -15.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-64,768
• Equity at exit: $38,752

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-87,795
• Equity at exit: $22,471

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32408

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 1022
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,839 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$325 /mo · $3,898/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-343

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,274

Max offer price $210,254

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-163	-5% $-253	+0% $-343	+5% $-433	+10% $-523
Rent	-10% $-488	-5% $-416	+0% $-343	+5% $-270	+10% $-198
Rate	-1.0pp $-212	-0.5pp $-277	base $-343	+0.5pp $-410	+1.0pp $-479

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2340 Grand Oaks Ln Unit 1523381P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	1001	$4,240	$4.24	14d	1	0.40mi
2103 Bent Oak Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	21d	1	0.44mi
447 Water Oak Cir Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$1,800	$1.84	21d	1	0.72mi
7813 N Lagoon Dr Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,900	$1.79	21d	1	0.91mi
2195 Wilkinson St Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$1,940	$1.91	14d	41	0.96mi
2617 Cypress St Panama City, FL	1.0	1.0	720	$1,300	$1.81	21d	1	1.14mi
2526 Laurie Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,750	$1.84	14d	1	1.33mi
6427 Sunset Ave Unit 2 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,225	$1.36	21d	1	1.37mi
8604 Whelch Dr Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1087	$2,250	$2.07	14d	18	1.37mi
7205 Thomas Dr Unit 1354970P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1044	$3,227	$3.09	21d	1	1.39mi
2216 Anne Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	951	$1,300	$1.37	14d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $259,900 Active 143 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,900 Active 142 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,900 Active 141 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,900 Active 140 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,900 Active 139 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $259,900 Active 137 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,900 Active 136 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $269,900 Active 134 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,900 Active 133 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $269,900 Active 132 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,900 Active 131 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $269,900 Active 128 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,900 Active 127 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,900 Active 126 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,900 Active 125 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,900 Active 124 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $289,900 Active 123 DOM
18. 2026-03-05
    price $289,900 1288-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1288 chars)

    This recently renovated home is located in a quiet gated community across from the Naval Support Activity in Panama City Beach, FL. It is close to many restaurants, shopping, Bay Point Golf Course, and a short drive to the emerald coast white sandy beaches. The home includes a brand-new redesigned kitchen, and primary suite with a large closet. The primary bathroom was redesigned and has a beautiful walk-in shower. A new laundry area was created and additional cabinets were added for plenty of storage. A new 2-car carport was added, which can be used for parking or a nice outdoor covered space. This property is move-in ready, and is perfect as a primary residence, summer home, or as an income-producing investment. The well-manicured community offers a large clubhouse with an exercise room. There are 2 pools and 1 hot tub located by the clubhouse and in the center of the community. This site includes a large pond with a boardwalk around the entire area where residents can fish or feed the turtles. The social committee offers weekly and monthly activities, something for everyone to enjoy. HOA fees include water, sewer, trash, TV and lawn care. An on-site property manager is located daily in the clubhouse, and an on-duty maintenance supervisor is available for any needs.

19. 2026-01-27
    listed $299,900 Active 1288-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1288 chars)

    This recently renovated home is located in a quiet gated community across from the Naval Support Activity in Panama City Beach, FL. It is close to many restaurants, shopping, Bay Point Golf Course, and a short drive to the emerald coast white sandy beaches. The home includes a brand-new redesigned kitchen, and primary suite with a large closet. The primary bathroom was redesigned and has a beautiful walk-in shower. A new laundry area was created and additional cabinets were added for plenty of storage. A new 2-car carport was added, which can be used for parking or a nice outdoor covered space. This property is move-in ready, and is perfect as a primary residence, summer home, or as an income-producing investment. The well-manicured community offers a large clubhouse with an exercise room. There are 2 pools and 1 hot tub located by the clubhouse and in the center of the community. This site includes a large pond with a boardwalk around the entire area where residents can fish or feed the turtles. The social committee offers weekly and monthly activities, something for everyone to enjoy. HOA fees include water, sewer, trash, TV and lawn care. An on-site property manager is located daily in the clubhouse, and an on-duty maintenance supervisor is available for any needs.

20. 2025-01-27
    historical $1,600
21. 2025-01-24
    listed $1,600
22. 2025-01-24
    historical $1,600
23. 2024-12-24
    listed $1,600
24. 2021-10-08
    soldstatus $175,000
25. 2008-10-14
    soldstatus $91,000
26. 2008-08-08
    listed $98,900
27. 2007-11-28
    listed $59,000
28. 2007-11-28
    listed $59,000
29. 2007-11-28
    listed $59,000
30. 2007-04-24
    soldstatus $89,900
31. 2006-09-27
    listed $97,900
32. 2006-09-21
    listed $59,000
33. 2005-07-22
    listed $137,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,071
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$3,898
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,766
• − Management: −$1,766
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$8,777
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,107
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,011/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Upper Grand Lagoon

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #11085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Upper Grand Lagoon, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 18,326
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,832
• Household income: $80,822
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 817.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.52%
• Current HPI: 246.9126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.55%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+110.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $289,900 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2026-01-27 Listed $299,900 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2025-01-27 Rental Removed $1,600 RENTALBEAST
• 2025-01-24 Listed for Rent $1,600 RENTALBEAST
• 2025-01-24 Rental Removed $1,600 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-12-24 Listed for Rent $1,600 TURBOTENANT
• 2021-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2008-10-14 Sold (MLS) $91,000 ECAR
• 2008-08-08 Listed $98,900 ECAR
• 2007-11-28 Listed $59,000 ECAR
• 2007-11-28 Listed $59,000 ECAR
• 2007-11-28 Listed $59,000 ECAR
• 2007-04-24 Sold (MLS) $89,900 ECAR
• 2006-09-27 Listed $97,900 ECAR
• 2006-09-21 Listed $59,000 ECAR
• 2005-07-22 Listed $137,900 ECAR