11 Golf St · West Long Branch, NJ 07764

$1,799,000

5 bd · 1.5 ba · 3,377 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1906

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this inviting 5-bedroom French Victorian in desirable West Long Branch, set on a quiet block near beaches, parks, shopping, and houses of worship. Featuring chestnut wood floors and high ceilings, the home offers a bright, open feel. The sunlit updated kitchen includes stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, and flows into the family room with a built-in bar. The large first-floor office can easily convert to a primary suite with full bath, creating a 6-bedroom home ideal for flexible living. French doors lead to a private backyard with patio, covered outdoor bar and kitchen, saltwater pool, fire pit, and spacious yard (approx. 135x197). Basement and attic offer expansion potential.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Pool
• Built 1906

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Detached garage; Attached carport; Open parking; Asphalt driveway; 2 covered spaces; Garage configured for 2-car width and 3 cars deep
• Utilities: Public sewer; Natural gas service connected; Electricity connected
• Home design: Detached property; Two levels; Three total stories
• Construction: Asphalt roof; Public water
• Exterior features: Barbecue; Open porch(es); Enclosed porch(es); Patio; Porch (enclosed option)

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite/Corian countertops; Breakfast bar; Kitchen island; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen; Self-cleaning oven; Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5+ bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Central heating; Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Second stairway to second level; Living room; Family room; Formal dining room; Kitchen; Laundry room; Storage; Unfinished/other room
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry room; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $1.80M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $40k ($477k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($65k rent vs $1.80M).
• Recommended offer: $1.69M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 32.8% vs local median 1.9% in West Long Branch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#268 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• West Long Branch School District (suburban): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #154 of 472 in NJ (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $12k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $54k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $504k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.69M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 32y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $128k; list at $1.80M implies a 1305% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1906 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,691,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1906 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 32.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 94.75%
• DSCR: 5.22
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,148,180
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6 Judith Pl	0.24mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,538 (+5%)	22mo	$1,161,000	$328	53
61 Orchard Rd	0.31mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,028 (-10%)	9mo	$1,250,000	$413	51
78 Linden Ave	0.38mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,935 (-13%)	22mo	$999,000	$340	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 95.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.45×
• Total profit: $2,242,005
• Equity at exit: $268,237

10-year hold

• IRR: 98.3%
• Equity multiple: 11.35×
• Total profit: $5,215,464
• Equity at exit: $155,545

Cash invested: $503,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07764

• Home prices YoY: -28.1%
• Active inventory: 48
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $64,706 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,434
• Tax from tax record: −$1,160 /mo · $13,926/yr
• Insurance: −$750
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$13,588
• Net cashflow: $39,774

Break-even live

Break-even rent $14,360

Max offer price $1,799,000

Occupancy floor 34%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $40,792	-5% $40,283	+0% $39,774	+5% $39,265	+10% $38,755
Rent	-10% $34,662	-5% $37,218	+0% $39,774	+5% $42,330	+10% $44,886
Rate	-1.0pp $40,680	-0.5pp $40,231	base $39,774	+0.5pp $39,308	+1.0pp $38,833

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $449,750
• Closing costs: $53,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
64 Hollywood Ave West Long Branch, NJ	6.0	4.0	4104	$6,200	$1.51	0d	1	0.92mi
589 Westwood Ave Long Branch, NJ	4.0	2.0	2958	$52,000	$17.58	23d	1	1.05mi
25 Muncy Dr West Long Branch, NJ	5.0	4.0	4347	$99,000	$22.77	23d	1	1.15mi
216 Lenox Ave Long Branch, NJ	5.0	2.5	2825	$43,000	$15.22	25d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,799,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,799,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,799,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,799,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,799,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,799,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,799,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,799,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,799,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,799,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,799,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,799,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,799,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,799,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,799,000 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-04-09
    listed $1,799,000 Active 711-char remark

    Show marketing remark (711 chars)

    Welcome to this inviting 5-bedroom French Victorian in desirable West Long Branch, set on a quiet block near beaches, parks, shopping, and houses of worship. Featuring chestnut wood floors and high ceilings, the home offers a bright, open feel. The sunlit updated kitchen includes stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, and flows into the family room with a built-in bar. The large first-floor office can easily convert to a primary suite with full bath, creating a 6-bedroom home ideal for flexible living. French doors lead to a private backyard with patio, covered outdoor bar and kitchen, saltwater pool, fire pit, and spacious yard (approx. 135x197). Basement and attic offer expansion potential.

17. 2026-04-09
    listed $1,799,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (711 chars)

    Welcome to this inviting 5-bedroom French Victorian in desirable West Long Branch, set on a quiet block near beaches, parks, shopping, and houses of worship. Featuring chestnut wood floors and high ceilings, the home offers a bright, open feel. The sunlit updated kitchen includes stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, and flows into the family room with a built-in bar. The large first-floor office can easily convert to a primary suite with full bath, creating a 6-bedroom home ideal for flexible living. French doors lead to a private backyard with patio, covered outdoor bar and kitchen, saltwater pool, fire pit, and spacious yard (approx. 135x197). Basement and attic offer expansion potential.

18. 2026-04-06
    historical $1,799,000

    Show marketing remark (711 chars)

    Welcome to this inviting 5-bedroom French Victorian in desirable West Long Branch, set on a quiet block near beaches, parks, shopping, and houses of worship. Featuring chestnut wood floors and high ceilings, the home offers a bright, open feel. The sunlit updated kitchen includes stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, and flows into the family room with a built-in bar. The large first-floor office can easily convert to a primary suite with full bath, creating a 6-bedroom home ideal for flexible living. French doors lead to a private backyard with patio, covered outdoor bar and kitchen, saltwater pool, fire pit, and spacious yard (approx. 135x197). Basement and attic offer expansion potential.

19. 2026-04-06
    historical $1,799,000 711-char remark

    Show marketing remark (711 chars)

    Welcome to this inviting 5-bedroom French Victorian in desirable West Long Branch, set on a quiet block near beaches, parks, shopping, and houses of worship. Featuring chestnut wood floors and high ceilings, the home offers a bright, open feel. The sunlit updated kitchen includes stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, and flows into the family room with a built-in bar. The large first-floor office can easily convert to a primary suite with full bath, creating a 6-bedroom home ideal for flexible living. French doors lead to a private backyard with patio, covered outdoor bar and kitchen, saltwater pool, fire pit, and spacious yard (approx. 135x197). Basement and attic offer expansion potential.

20. 2025-12-16
    historical
21. 2025-10-25
    listed $1,799,999 Active
22. 2025-10-20
    historical
23. 1995-07-01
    soldstatus $128,000
24. 1994-10-29
    listed $139,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $13,926 · $1,160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $29,361 · $2,447/mo
• Expected delta: +$15,435/yr (+$1,286/mo · 110.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $776,476
• − Mortgage interest: −$100,772
• − Property taxes: −$13,926
• − Insurance: −$8,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$62,118
• − Management: −$62,118
• − Depreciation: −$52,335
• Taxable income: $476,212
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$114,291
• After-tax cash flow: $362,994/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Long Branch School District
• NCES district ID: 3417490
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $87,522
• Composite: 42.99/100
• National rank: #3108
• State rank: #154 of 472 in NJ

Livability — West Long Branch

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #7916

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Long Branch, NJ
• City population: 8,576
• Population (ZIP): 8,576

Population outlook (Monmouth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 620,308 people
• By 2030: 612,309 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 587,297 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 551,342 · -11.1%
• By 2075: 472,934 · -23.8%
• By 2100: 381,534 · -38.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Estonian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monmouth

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.4% · R 54.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -3.7pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: R+2.8 2016: R+9.5 2012: R+5.5 2008: R+3.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -169.51%
• Current HPI: 432.648
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+1185.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $1,799,000 MOMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $1,799,000 CJMLS
• 2026-04-06 Coming Soon $1,799,000 CJMLS
• 2026-04-06 Coming Soon $1,799,000 MOMLS
• 2025-12-16 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2025-10-25 Listed $1,799,999 MOMLS
• 2025-10-20 Coming Soon — MOMLS
• 1995-07-01 Sold (MLS) $128,000 MOMLS
• 1994-10-29 Listed $139,900 MOMLS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $13,926 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.