102 Mill Stone Dr · Dothan, AL 36305

$190,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,522 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 2002 $125/sqft · at area comps Est $233k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Remarkable Curb Appeal! This home is MOVE-IN READY in the MILL CREEK SUBDIVISION! Wood Privacy fenced yard, Architectural Roof, 3 Bedrooms and 2.5 Baths, Formal Dining Room, Eat-In Kitchen with Stainless Appliances (includes Refrigerator), Finished Concrete floors in Kitchen and Dining Room, HVAC was New in 2016, Master bath has tub and separate shower, huge master walk-in closet , Very nice window treatments throughout, Seller offering HOME WARRANTY.

Key facts

• Fenced in backyard
• Walking bike trail
• Built 2002

Tags

• FENCED IN BACKYARD
• WALKING BIKE TRAIL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-85 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (26.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.4% in Dothan — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#146 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Dothan City (urban): math 19% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #73 of 129 in AL (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Highlands Elementary School (math 54% / reading 70%, grade B, #53 of 627 statewide, top 9%, 565 students, 43% FRL); Dothan Preparatory Academy (math 12% / reading 38%, grade F, #163 of 257 statewide, top 64%, 1,133 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 44% at this address vs 29% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Dothan City average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 162 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 463 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (96 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Houston County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,415 (26.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.91%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $233,224
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: -18.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
106 Mill Stone Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,626 (+7%)	8mo	$220,000	$135	78
113 Bartlet Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,497 (-2%)	2mo	$233,000	$156	76
400 Mill Cir	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,666 (+10%)	0mo	$236,900	$142	76
202 Chapelwood Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,564 (+3%)	7mo	$220,000	$141	70
205 Spyglass Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,596 (+5%)	2mo	$214,500	$134	66
100 Tazewell Ct	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,341 (-12%)	2mo	$189,000	$141	65
600 Orchard Cir	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,504 (-1%)	2mo	$276,000	$184	61
1310 Woodleigh Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-1%)	8mo	$230,000	$152	59
1310 Woodleigh Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-1%)	8mo	$230,000	$152	59
113 Beckett Ct	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,643 (+8%)	7mo	$208,000	$127	55
200 Lighthouse Dr	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,732 (+14%)	1mo	$220,000	$127	51
403 Boyce Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,688 (+11%)	6mo	$250,000	$148	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-36,232
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-38,703
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36305

• Home prices YoY: -25.7%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,404 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,421/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $-85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,511

Max offer price $175,046

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $23	-5% $-31	+0% $-85	+5% $-138	+10% $-192
Rent	-10% $-196	-5% $-140	+0% $-85	+5% $-29	+10% $26
Rate	-1.0pp $11	-0.5pp $-36	base $-85	+0.5pp $-134	+1.0pp $-184

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30 W Chadwick Cir Dothan, AL	2.0	3.0	1300	$1,300	$1.00	45d	1	0.48mi
408 S Woodburn Dr Dothan, AL	2.0	2.0	1167	$1,050	$0.90	45d	1	0.49mi
1121 S Brannon Stand Rd Dothan, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$1,598	$1.54	45d	29	1.27mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $190,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-12
   days on market $190,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $190,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $190,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $190,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $190,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $190,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    listed $190,000 Active 68-char remark
15. 2024-01-17
    soldstatus $187,000
16. 2022-02-16
    soldstatus $163,500
17. 2022-02-15
    soldstatus $163,500 455-char remark

    Show marketing remark (455 chars)

    Remarkable Curb Appeal! This home is MOVE-IN READY in the MILL CREEK SUBDIVISION! Wood Privacy fenced yard, Architectural Roof, 3 Bedrooms and 2.5 Baths, Formal Dining Room, Eat-In Kitchen with Stainless Appliances (includes Refrigerator), Finished Concrete floors in Kitchen and Dining Room, HVAC was New in 2016, Master bath has tub and separate shower, huge master walk-in closet , Very nice window treatments throughout, Seller offering HOME WARRANTY.

18. 2015-06-02
    soldstatus $138,000
19. 2015-05-29
    soldstatus $138,000

    Show marketing remark (268 chars)

    Very stately and sophisticated curb appeal! Home features 3 BRS, 2.5 baths, large grandroom w/ cozy fireplace. New carpet, new flooring, stainless refrigerator included (per owner), wood privacy fenced, nicely landscaped, includes home warranty and under termite bond.

20. 2015-02-20
    listed $139,900

    Show marketing remark (268 chars)

    Very stately and sophisticated curb appeal! Home features 3 BRS, 2.5 baths, large grandroom w/ cozy fireplace. New carpet, new flooring, stainless refrigerator included (per owner), wood privacy fenced, nicely landscaped, includes home warranty and under termite bond.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,421 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,421 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,850
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$1,421
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,348
• − Management: −$1,348
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$4,387
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,053
• After-tax cash flow: $37/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dothan City
• NCES district ID: 0101230
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,279
• Composite: 24.56/100
• National rank: #7640
• State rank: #73 of 129 in AL

Livability — Dothan

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #146
• US rank: #13662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dothan, AL
• County: Houston County · 47,783 people
• City population: 47,783
• Metro: Dothan, AL
• Population (ZIP): 17,610
• Household income: $84,302
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 331.0

Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 110,280 people
• By 2030: 112,668 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 116,149 · +5.3%
• By 2050: 117,805 · +6.8%
• By 2075: 118,577 · +7.5%
• By 2100: 110,940 · +0.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.8) · D 25.7% · R 73.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -40.8pp · 2024: -47.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.8 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+47.6 2012: R+40.3 2008: R+40.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.33%
• Current HPI: 157.3685
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dothan, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+33.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2024-01-17 Sold (Public Records) $187,000 Public Records
• 2022-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $163,500 Public Records
• 2022-02-15 Sold (MLS) $163,500 SAMLS
• 2015-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $138,000 Public Records
• 2015-05-29 Sold (MLS) $138,000 SAMLS
• 2015-02-20 Listed $139,900 SAMLS

Property tax history

+12.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,421 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.