5415 Timbers Trail Dr · Atascocita, TX 77346

$205,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,448 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1978 8,049 sqft lot Est $277k · 26% under $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

home with beautiful updates. Travertine fireplace surround, new wood flooring downstairs, new carpet upstairs, and fresh modern paint throughout. Enjoy the freshly landscaped front yard and nice fenced in backyard, great for family leisure time and entertaining.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Wood floors
• Granite countertops

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• WOOD FLOORS
• DEDICATED DINING ROOM
• STYLISHLY APPOINTED KITCHEN
• WHITE CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $449 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $205k).
• Recommended offer: $202k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 4.1% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Timberwood Middle (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,094 students, 54% FRL); Atascocita H S (math 41% / reading 52%, grade D-, #621 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 3,829 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 32% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 669 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $104k; list at $205k implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,925 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.39%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $276,624
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5606 Timbers Trail Dr	0.18mi	4/2.5	2,498 (+2%)	1mo	$255,000	$102	88
5502 Moosewood Ct	0.10mi	4/2.5	2,531 (+3%)	3mo	$315,000	$124	88
19518 Alinawood Dr	0.21mi	4/2.5	2,634 (+8%)	1mo	$265,000	$101	77
19510 Alinawood Dr	0.22mi	4/2.5	2,604 (+6%)	3mo	$269,900	$104	77
5527 Enchanted Timbers Dr	0.36mi	4/2.5	2,348 (-4%)	1mo	$279,900	$119	75
19311 Forest Fern Ct	0.29mi	4/2.5	2,276 (-7%)	0mo	$299,900	$132	75
5706 Upper Lake Dr	0.25mi	4/2.5	2,667 (+9%)	1mo	$285,000	$107	72
5726 Green Timbers Dr	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,592 (+6%)	1mo	$249,999	$96	65
5811 Forest Timbers Dr	0.55mi	4/2.5	2,292 (-6%)	1mo	$264,500	$115	63
20107 Bambiwoods Dr	0.64mi	4/2.5	2,348 (-4%)	3mo	$237,000	$101	61
20803 Oak Preserve Dr	0.53mi	4/2.5	2,663 (+9%)	3mo	$300,000	$113	58
19402 Kacey Lane Ct	0.60mi	4/2.5	2,793 (+14%)	2mo	$318,550	$114	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $6,019
• Equity at exit: $49,936

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $29,896
• Equity at exit: $52,822

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 669
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,747 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$514 /mo · $6,173/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$577
• Net cashflow: $449

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,178

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19322 Forest Fern Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2626	$3,500	$1.33	43d	1	0.22mi
20143 Dawn Mist Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1617	$1,659	$1.03	43d	1	0.67mi
5303 Hill Timbers Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1884	$2,050	$1.09	43d	1	0.83mi
20914 Lake Park Trl Humble, TX	5.0	2.5	2462	$2,460	$1.00	5d	1	1.02mi
6519 Kings Glen Dr Humble, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1255	$2,813	$2.24	1d	16	1.05mi
20906 Greenfield Trl Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2603	$2,200	$0.85	43d	1	1.06mi
20823 Water Point Trl Humble, TX	4.0	3.5	2550	$2,525	$0.99	22d	1	1.13mi
20618 Carmine Oak Ct Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	2087	$2,195	$1.05	43d	1	1.22mi
20707 Redbud Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1965	$2,450	$1.25	22d	1	1.27mi
18406 S Roaring River Ct Humble, TX	4.0	4.0	3319	$3,600	$1.08	43d	1	1.36mi
6731 Auburn Oak Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	2433	$2,345	$0.96	22d	1	1.38mi
18810 Woodbreeze Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2200	$2,279	$1.04	24d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-04-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-10
   listed $205,000 Active
3. 2025-10-03
   status Active
4. 2025-07-28
   historical
5. 2025-06-24
   status Pending
6. 2025-04-18
   status Pending
7. 2025-03-05
   price $219,000
8. 2025-02-18
   price $225,000
9. 2025-02-07
   price $233,000
10. 2025-01-29
    listed $243,000 Active
11. 2019-05-14
    soldstatus
12. 2019-05-09
    soldstatus Sold 262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    home with beautiful updates. Travertine fireplace surround, new wood flooring downstairs, new carpet upstairs, and fresh modern paint throughout. Enjoy the freshly landscaped front yard and nice fenced in backyard, great for family leisure time and entertaining.

13. 2019-04-01
    status Pending 262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    home with beautiful updates. Travertine fireplace surround, new wood flooring downstairs, new carpet upstairs, and fresh modern paint throughout. Enjoy the freshly landscaped front yard and nice fenced in backyard, great for family leisure time and entertaining.

14. 2019-03-06
    listed $199,000 Active 262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    home with beautiful updates. Travertine fireplace surround, new wood flooring downstairs, new carpet upstairs, and fresh modern paint throughout. Enjoy the freshly landscaped front yard and nice fenced in backyard, great for family leisure time and entertaining.

15. 2019-03-03
    historical
16. 2019-02-07
    price $189,900
17. 2019-01-24
    listed $199,000 Active
18. 2019-01-21
    historical
19. 2019-01-10
    price $204,000
20. 2019-01-10
    status Active
21. 2018-12-19
    price $199,000
22. 2018-12-19
    status Pending
23. 2018-12-19
    status Active
24. 2018-11-23
    status Pending
25. 2018-11-12
    status Option Pending
26. 2018-10-30
    price $189,000
27. 2018-10-11
    listed $199,000 Active
28. 2018-08-20
    soldstatus
29. 2018-08-16
    soldstatus Sold
30. 2018-08-06
    status Pending
31. 2018-08-04
    status Active
32. 2018-08-04
    status Pending
33. 2018-07-20
    status Option Pending
34. 2018-07-05
    price $169,775
35. 2018-07-05
    listed $195,777 Active
36. 2018-07-04
    historical
37. 2018-05-31
    price $195,777
38. 2018-04-20
    listed $199,770 Active
39. 2004-08-16
    soldstatus
40. 2004-03-30
    historical
41. 2003-12-08
    listed $125,900
42. 1999-10-01
    soldstatus
43. 1999-09-01
    soldstatus $104,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,173 · $514/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,173 · $514/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,965
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$6,173
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,637
• − Management: −$2,637
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable income: $2,494
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$599
• After-tax cash flow: $4,793/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+97.1% since first listed

43 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-03 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-07-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-04-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-03-05 Price Changed $219,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-18 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-07 Price Changed $233,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-29 Listed $243,000 HARMLS
• 2019-05-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-05-09 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-04-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-03-06 Listed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2019-03-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-02-07 Price Changed $189,900 HARMLS
• 2019-01-24 Listed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2019-01-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-01-10 Price Changed $204,000 HARMLS
• 2019-01-10 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2018-12-19 Price Changed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2018-12-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-12-19 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2018-11-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-11-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-10-30 Price Changed $189,000 HARMLS
• 2018-10-11 Listed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2018-08-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-08-16 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-08-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-08-04 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2018-08-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-07-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-07-05 Price Changed $169,775 HARMLS
• 2018-07-05 Listed $195,777 HARMLS
• 2018-07-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-05-31 Price Changed $195,777 HARMLS
• 2018-04-20 Listed $199,770 HARMLS
• 2004-08-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-03-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2003-12-08 Listed $125,900 HARMLS
• 1999-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $104,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,173 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.