Plan 1631 Modeled Plan · Fresno, TX 77545

$277,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,631 sqft · SingleFamily · 662 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr.

Key facts

• Smart thermostat
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 661 days

Tags

• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• SMART THERMOSTAT
• ENERGY STAR CERTIFIED HOME

🏗️ New construction. The $277,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $325,755.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $278k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-433 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (5.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (17.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#943 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blue Ridge El (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,180 of 4,322 statewide, top 97%, 263 students, 89% FRL); Christa Mcauliffe Middle (math 9% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,583 of 1,662 statewide, top 96%, 835 students, 94% FRL); Fort Bend Co Alter (26 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 35% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 13% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-35 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 662 days — a 12% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,104 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 662 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.70%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $325,755
• List price: $277,995
• Delta: -14.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2907 Elassona Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,631 (0%)	4mo	$300,069	$184	88
1915 Bemus Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,631 (0%)	5mo	$290,450	$178	86
3039 Dardanos Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,631 (0%)	6mo	$304,000	$186	83
1914 Livadero Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,631 (0%)	7mo	$309,971	$190	82
1907 Bemus Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,631 (0%)	8mo	$296,568	$182	80
3018 Aden Joseph Ct	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,655 (+2%)	9mo	$310,000	$187	65
3322 Aldridge Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,733 (+6%)	3mo	$239,000	$138	58
1530 Grand Olympia Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,836 (+13%)	10mo	$299,995	$163	55
2814 Goodman Ridge Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,844 (+13%)	1mo	$315,000	$171	53
3327 Chimera Ln	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,787 (+10%)	8mo	$279,000	$156	48
2822 Goodman Ridge Dr	0.53mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,778 (+9%)	9mo	$285,000	$160	46
2510 Crisp Apple Way Way	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,848 (+13%)	10mo	$285,000	$154	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.98% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-73,012
• Equity at exit: $63,557

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-112,466
• Equity at exit: $54,592

Cash invested: $91,211 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 34 active · 20 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.0 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $299,900 ($177/sqft)
• Median days on market: 99 d
• This list price: 9% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +12.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77545

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,301 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,708
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$407 /mo · $4,886/yr
• Insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $-433

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,850

Max offer price $263,042

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-208	-5% $-321	+0% $-433	+5% $-546	+10% $-659
Rent	-10% $-615	-5% $-524	+0% $-433	+5% $-343	+10% $-252
Rate	-1.0pp $-269	-0.5pp $-351	base $-433	+0.5pp $-518	+1.0pp $-604

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,439
• Closing costs: $9,773
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3106 Presley Jane Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	2109	$2,271	$1.08	54d	1	0.45mi
2707 Troy Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2082	$2,245	$1.08	51d	1	0.52mi
2709 Troy Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2082	$2,245	$1.08	70d	1	0.52mi
1055 Memorial Bend Blvd Missouri City, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	994	$2,452	$2.47	0d	79	0.72mi
1080 Memorial Bend Blvd Unit 230 Missouri City, TX	2.0	2.0	1130	$2,048	$1.81	0d	1	1.07mi
2119 Hawthorne Brook Ln Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,895	$1.20	1d	1	1.11mi
3234 Dartmouth Field Ln Fresno, TX	4.0	2.5	1718	$1,780	$1.04	4d	1	1.30mi
3122 Becker Glen St Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1597	$1,711	$1.07	28d	1	1.31mi
3235 Becker Glen St Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,601	$1.25	10d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $277,995 Active 662 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $277,995 Active 660 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $277,995 Active 659 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $277,995 Active 658 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $277,995 Active 657 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $277,995 Active 654 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $277,995 Active 652 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $277,995 Active 651 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $277,995 Active 649 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $277,995 Active 647 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $277,995 Active 646 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $277,995 Active 645 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $277,995 Active 644 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $277,995 Active 643 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $277,995 Active 641 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $277,995 Active 640 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $277,995 Active 639 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $277,995 Active 638 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $277,995 Active 637 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $277,995 Active 636 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $277,995 Active 635 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    pricedays on market $277,995 Active 634 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $282,995 Active 633 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $282,995 Active 632 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $282,995 Active 630 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $282,995 Active 629 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $282,995 Active 628 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $282,995 Active 627 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $282,995 Active 626 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $282,995 Active 625 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $282,995 Active 624 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $282,995 Active 623 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $282,995 Active 622 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $282,995 Active 621 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $282,995 Active 620 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $282,995 Active 619 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $282,995 Active 617 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $282,995 Active 615 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $282,995 Active 614 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $282,995 Active 611 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $282,995 Active 610 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $282,995 Active 609 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $282,995 Active 608 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $282,995 Active 606 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $282,995 Active 602 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $282,995 Active 600 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $280,995 Active 597 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $280,995 Active 596 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $280,995 Active 595 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $280,995 Active 594 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,612
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,247
• − Property taxes: −$4,886
• − Insurance: −$1,629
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,209
• − Management: −$2,209
• − Depreciation: −$9,477
• Taxable loss: −$11,045
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,651
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,550/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,155–$24,465 screening

This single-family home in Fresno, TX, is in good condition with modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior. Landscaping and smart home integration would further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both smart home integration — increases home's appeal and marketability ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 14/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ridgemont Early Literacy Center Middle Christa Mcauliffe Middle F TX #1,583/1,662 Nat'l #12,767/14,009 High Fort Bend Co Alter

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #16815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• City population: 26,236
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,236
• Household income: $94,474
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2% of renters

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 12% White 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.98%
• Current HPI: 231.3921
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.4% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $280,995 Zillow
• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $278,995 Zillow
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $298,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $276,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $274,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $272,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $270,995 Zillow
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $267,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $277,995 Zillow
• 2025-08-16 Price Changed $271,995 Zillow
• 2025-08-09 Price Changed $269,995 Zillow
• 2025-04-19 Price Changed $267,995 Zillow
• 2025-03-29 Price Changed $264,995 Zillow
• 2025-02-27 Price Changed $259,995 Zillow
• 2025-02-20 Price Changed $269,995 Zillow
• 2025-01-02 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-12-03 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-11-17 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-11-17 Price Changed $283,995 Zillow
• 2024-11-02 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-11-01 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-08-01 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-06-01 Listed $281,995 Zillow