Is Plan 1631 Modeled Plan in Fresno, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.4% cap rate and $-519/mo modeled cash flow at a $267,995 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for Plan 1631 Modeled Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 4.4% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,188/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 31.71

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +6.7/30.0
Appreciation +4.0/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.1/5.0
Rent growth +2.3/5.0
1% rule +1.7/10.0
Schools +1.5/10.0
DSCR +1.0/10.0

$267,995

Plan 1631 Modeled Plan · Fresno, TX 77545

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,631 sqft · SingleFamily · 709 Days on market

Good condition

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

* Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr.

Key facts

Smart thermostat
2 garage spots
Listed 708 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $268k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-519 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (6.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (18.4% below list).
Recommended offer: $219k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 62/100 on livability (#943 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Blue Ridge El (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,180 of 4,322 statewide, top 97%, 263 students, 89% FRL); Christa Mcauliffe Middle (math 9% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,583 of 1,662 statewide, top 96%, 835 students, 94% FRL); Fort Bend Co Alter (26 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 35% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 13% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-35 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 268 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 709 days — a 12% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,792 (18.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 709 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.67% ✗
Cap rate: 4.38%
Cash-on-cash: -6.84%
DSCR: 0.70
GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $325,248
List price: $267,995
Delta: -17.60%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2907 Elassona Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,631 (0%)	6mo	$300,069	$184	86
1915 Bemus Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,631 (0%)	6mo	$290,450	$178	84
3039 Dardanos Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,631 (0%)	8mo	$304,000	$186	82
1914 Livadero Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,631 (0%)	8mo	$309,971	$190	81
1907 Bemus Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,631 (0%)	9mo	$296,568	$182	79
3018 Aden Joseph Ct	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,655 (+2%)	11mo	$310,000	$187	64
3322 Aldridge Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,733 (+6%)	5mo	$239,000	$138	57
1530 Grand Olympia Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,836 (+13%)	12mo	$299,995	$163	54
2814 Goodman Ridge Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,844 (+13%)	3mo	$315,000	$171	52
3327 Chimera Ln	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,787 (+10%)	9mo	$279,000	$156	46
2822 Goodman Ridge Dr	0.53mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,778 (+9%)	11mo	$285,000	$160	44
2510 Crisp Apple Way Way	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,848 (+13%)	12mo	$285,000	$154	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.98% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -23.0%
Equity multiple: 0.14×
Total profit: $-78,090
Equity at exit: $63,458

10-year hold

IRR: -21.8%
Equity multiple: -0.35×
Total profit: $-122,674
Equity at exit: $54,507

Cash invested: $91,069 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 33 active · 28 under contract
Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $299,690 ($173/sqft)
Median days on market: 85 d
This list price: 9% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +15.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77545

Home prices YoY: -0.8%
Rents YoY: -0.9%
Active inventory: 268
Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,188 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,706
Tax est. 1.5%: −$407 /mo · $4,879/yr
Insurance: −$136
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
Net cashflow: $-519

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,845

Max offer price $250,112

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-294	-5% $-407	+0% $-519	+5% $-632	+10% $-744
Rent	-10% $-692	-5% $-606	+0% $-519	+5% $-433	+10% $-346
Rate	-1.0pp $-355	-0.5pp $-437	base $-519	+0.5pp $-604	+1.0pp $-689

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $81,312
Closing costs: $9,757
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3106 Presley Jane Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	2109	$2,271	$1.08	101d	1	0.45mi
2707 Troy Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2082	$2,245	$1.08	97d	1	0.52mi
2709 Troy Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2082	$2,245	$1.08	116d	1	0.52mi
1055 Memorial Bend Blvd Missouri City, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	994	$2,462	$2.48	0d	46	0.72mi
1407 Wheatland Terrance Ln Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1836	$2,400	$1.31	45d	1	0.96mi
1151 Memorial Bend Blvd Unit 230 Missouri City, TX	2.0	2.0	1226	$2,064	$1.68	0d	1	1.06mi
1119 Memorial Bend Blvd Missouri City, TX	2.0	2.0	1226	$1,164	$0.95	19d	1	1.06mi
2119 Hawthorne Brook Ln Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,895	$1.20	48d	1	1.11mi
2202 Tannin Trce Fresno, TX	4.0	2.5	2209	$2,231	$1.01	34d	1	1.22mi
3234 Dartmouth Field Ln Fresno, TX	4.0	2.5	1718	$1,700	$0.99	24d	1	1.30mi
3122 Becker Glen St Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1597	$1,711	$1.07	74d	1	1.31mi
3311 Jib Ct Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,700	$1.32	11d	1	1.31mi
3327 Jib Ct Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1780	$2,040	$1.15	35d	1	1.34mi
3235 Becker Glen St Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,601	$1.25	57d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $267,995 Active 709 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $267,995 Active 708 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $267,995 Active 707 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $267,995 Active 706 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $267,995 Active 705 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $267,995 Active 704 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $267,995 Active 703 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $267,995 Active 702 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $267,995 Active 701 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $267,995 Active 700 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $267,995 Active 699 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $267,995 Active 698 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $267,995 Active 697 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $267,995 Active 696 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $267,995 Active 690 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $267,995 Active 689 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $267,995 Active 685 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $267,995 Active 684 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $267,995 Active 683 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $267,995 Active 682 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $267,995 Active 681 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $267,995 Active 679 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $267,995 Active 678 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $267,995 Active 677 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $267,995 Active 676 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $267,995 Active 675 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $267,995 Active 674 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $267,995 Active 673 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $267,995 Active 672 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $267,995 Active 671 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $267,995 Active 670 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $267,995 Active 669 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $267,995 Active 668 DOM
2026-08-13

pricedays on market $267,995 Active 667 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $277,995 Active 666 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $277,995 Active 665 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $277,995 Active 664 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $277,995 Active 663 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $277,995 Active 662 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $277,995 Active 660 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $277,995 Active 659 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $277,995 Active 658 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $277,995 Active 657 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $277,995 Active 654 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $277,995 Active 652 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $277,995 Active 651 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $277,995 Active 649 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $277,995 Active 647 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $277,995 Active 646 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $277,995 Active 645 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $26,255
− Mortgage interest: −$18,219
− Property taxes: −$4,879
− Insurance: −$1,626
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,100
− Management: −$2,100
− Depreciation: −$9,462
Taxable loss: −$12,131

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,912
After-tax cash flow: $-3,320/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,155–$24,465 screening

This single-family home in Fresno, TX, is in good condition with modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior. Landscaping and smart home integration would further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
Both smart home integration — increases home's appeal and marketability ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 14/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ridgemont Early Literacy Center Middle Christa Mcauliffe Middle F TX #1,583/1,662 Nat'l #12,767/14,009 High Fort Bend Co Alter

Schools (NCES district)

District: Fort Bend ISD
NCES district ID: 4819650
Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income: $82,360
Composite: 44.61/100
National rank: #2779
State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Fresno

Score: 62/100
State rank: #943
US rank: #16815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Fresno, TX
County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
City population: 26,236
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 26,236
Household income: $94,474
Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
Severe rent burden: 2% of renters

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
Race & ethnicity: Black 51% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 12% White 8% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
Common ancestry: Portuguese 1%
Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -1.98%
Current HPI: 231.3921
Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-0.4% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

2026-05-16 Price Changed $280,995 Zillow
2026-05-10 Price Changed $278,995 Zillow
2026-05-09 Price Changed $298,995 Zillow
2026-04-18 Price Changed $276,995 Zillow
2026-04-11 Price Changed $274,995 Zillow
2026-03-28 Price Changed $272,995 Zillow
2026-03-07 Price Changed $270,995 Zillow
2026-01-22 Price Changed $267,995 Zillow
2025-11-18 Price Changed $277,995 Zillow
2025-08-16 Price Changed $271,995 Zillow
2025-08-09 Price Changed $269,995 Zillow
2025-04-19 Price Changed $267,995 Zillow
2025-03-29 Price Changed $264,995 Zillow
2025-02-27 Price Changed $259,995 Zillow
2025-02-20 Price Changed $269,995 Zillow
2025-01-02 Relisted — Zillow
2024-12-03 Delisted — Zillow
2024-11-17 Relisted — Zillow
2024-11-17 Price Changed $283,995 Zillow
2024-11-02 Delisted — Zillow
2024-11-01 Relisted — Zillow
2024-08-01 Delisted — Zillow
2024-06-01 Listed $281,995 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…