21200 Todd Valley Rd #111 · Foresthill, CA 95631

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · Manufactured · 134 Days on market

Built 1989 Est $158k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away in Skyview Terrace MHMP, at 21200 Todd Valley Rd, this inviting home on Terrace View at space #111, in Foresthill, CA, presents a wonderful opportunity to embrace comfortable living, with a welcoming atmosphere. Move-in ready, the living area offers spacious open floor plan with ample room for comfy overstuffed furniture and plenty of space for formal dining. The kitchen area becomes a natural gathering place, showcasing a kitchen peninsula and kitchen bar for casual dining and conversation, complemented beautifully by a wood wall, adding a touch of rustic charm. The Master bedroom offers a tranquil retreat, enhanced by a wood wall that brings warmth and character to the space,

Key facts

• Double sinks
• Open floor plan
• Kitchen bar

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• KITCHEN PENINSULA
• KITCHEN BAR
• DOUBLE SINKS
• SOAKING TUB
• BALCONY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in a park (land lease applies)
• Financial info: Land lease (yes) with monthly amount noted
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Parking for 3 vehicles; Attached, covered parking and deck
• Utilities: Public water; Holding tank sewer; Propane and gas plumbed; Generator and 220 volts in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured in park (triple wide); Updated/remodeled; Built in 1989
• Construction: Shingle roof; Wood skirting; Manufactured by Fleetwood
• Exterior features: Carport awning; Shed(s); Other lot features

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Free standing refrigerator; Dishwasher; Microwave; Hood over range; Ice maker; Disposal; Pantry closet; Breakfast area; Laminate counters
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (includes master bedroom)
• Flooring: Simulated wood and wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Sunken tub and shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating and central cooling; Pellet stove and wood stove (fireplace feature); Ceiling fan(s); Heating noted as 'See Remarks'
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Ice maker; Hood over range; Free standing gas range; Free standing refrigerator; One fireplace with pellet stove; Cathedral/vaulted great room; Breakfast area and pantry closet; Laminate counters; Dining/family combo and formal dining area; Dual pane full windows; Porch steps, covered deck and covered patio with railings; Pets allowed (cats, dogs; service animals OK); Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Gas hook-up; Laundry located inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $325 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 1.7% in Foresthill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 39/100 on livability (#1,397 in CA) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Placer Union High (suburban): math 39% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #98 of 517 in CA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Foresthill Divide (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #667 of 1,571 statewide, top 43%, 446 students, 39% FRL); Foresthill High (math 34% / reading 74%, grade C-, #256 of 1,170 statewide, top 24%, 184 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; 3,535 units permitted in Placer County in 2024 (689 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Placer County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.27%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $158,400
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21200 Todd Valley Rd #13	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (-2%)	3mo	$155,000	$99	89
21200 Todd Valley Rd #150	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,677 (+5%)	16mo	$159,000	$95	79
21200 Todd Valley Rd #66	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-10%)	8mo	$112,000	$78	76
21200 Todd Valley Rd #5	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-10%)	18mo	$82,500	$57	63
5782 Arrowhead Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-2%)	18mo	$395,000	$253	55
21207 Oakwood Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,494 (-7%)	19mo	$439,000	$294	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-3,605
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $23,590
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95631

• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,723 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $325

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $428	-5% $376	+0% $325	+5% $273	+10% $221
Rent	-10% $189	-5% $257	+0% $325	+5% $393	+10% $461
Rate	-1.0pp $400	-0.5pp $363	base $325	+0.5pp $286	+1.0pp $246

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $150,000 Pending 134 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $150,000 Active 133 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $150,000 Active 132 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $150,000 Active 131 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $150,000 Active 130 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,677
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,654
• − Management: −$1,654
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $1,603
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$385
• After-tax cash flow: $3,511/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Placer Union High
• NCES district ID: 0630750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,119
• Composite: 49.04/100
• National rank: #2060
• State rank: #98 of 517 in CA

Livability — Foresthill

• Score: 39/100
• State rank: #1397
• US rank: #27383

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,934

Population outlook (Placer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 422,709 people
• By 2030: 444,249 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 480,192 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 506,390 · +19.8%
• By 2075: 550,219 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 547,760 · +29.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Slovak 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Placer

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.5) · D 44.3% · R 52.8% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.8pp toward D · 2008: -11.3pp · 2024: -8.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.5 2020: R+6.7 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+20.1 2008: R+11.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -190.65%
• Current HPI: 235.5632
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B