14405 Scottburgh Glen Dr · Balm, FL 33598

$296,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,749 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 2018 4,800 sqft lot $9/mo HOA

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0

Listing remarks

Meet the well-appointed residence at 14405 Scottburgh Glen Dr, where the kitchen features all stainless steel appliances, an accent backsplash, and a functional island. Outdoor living is extended by a covered patio, complementing the property's fresh exterior paint and recent partial flooring replacement. This property combines modern style and functional comfort seamlessly. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

Key facts

• Functional island
• Covered patio
• Fresh exterior paint

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• ACCENT BACKSPLASH
• FUNCTIONAL ISLAND
• COVERED PATIO
• FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT
• PARTIAL FLOORING REPLACEMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community pool
• Financial info: CDD present; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA managed by McNeil Management Service; Annual association fee $115 (monthly equivalent $9.58); Association fee covers pool and other amenities; Association approval required; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached garage (2 spaces)
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Water service available
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; Faces south
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as residential single-family
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Asphalt road access; Lot approximately 0.11 acres (about 446 m²); No waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Electric water heater; Other kitchen appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room/dining room combo; Security system (owned)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet; Upper level laundry; Other laundry features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $296k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-135 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (8.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $253k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#742 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Belmont Elementary School (math 42% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,345 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 987 students, 44% FRL); Shields Middle School (math 29% / reading 27%, grade F, #486 of 571 statewide, top 86%, 1,867 students, 68% FRL); Lennard High School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,404 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 689 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($287k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $253k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $252,727 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.96%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.35% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-55,737
• Equity at exit: $52,828

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-80,739
• Equity at exit: $40,779

Cash invested: $82,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33598

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 689
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,527 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,552
• Tax from tax record: −$447 /mo · $5,369/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$9
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$531
• Net cashflow: $-135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,699

Max offer price $272,067

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $32	-5% $-52	+0% $-135	+5% $-219	+10% $-303
Rent	-10% $-335	-5% $-235	+0% $-135	+5% $-36	+10% $64
Rate	-1.0pp $14	-0.5pp $-60	base $-135	+0.5pp $-212	+1.0pp $-290

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,000
• Closing costs: $8,880
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14525 Scottburgh Glen Dr Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.0	1704	$3,300	$1.94	24d	1	0.31mi
14217 Poke Ridge Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1913	$2,511	$1.31	7d	1	0.50mi
13924 Arbor Pines Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	1920	$2,545	$1.33	26d	1	0.51mi
14207 Poke Ridge Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1897	$2,600	$1.37	1d	1	0.54mi
14207 Poke Ridge Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	3.0	1897	$2,350	$1.24	26d	1	0.54mi
10237 Carloway Hills Dr Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.5	1914	$2,526	$1.32	1d	1	0.61mi
14906 Imperial Purple Ln Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.0	1771	$2,250	$1.27	20d	1	0.72mi
14906 Imperial Purple Ln Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.0	1561	$2,250	$1.44	7d	1	0.72mi
10438 Carloway Hills Dr Wimauma, FL	4.0	3.0	1860	$2,500	$1.34	26d	1	0.75mi
14435 Barley Field Dr Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	2046	$2,231	$1.09	16d	1	0.82mi
14471 Stagedoor Johnny Pl Ruskin, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1138	$2,344	$2.06	0d	20	1.06mi
14452 Easy Goer St Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.5	1701	$2,250	$1.32	14d	1	1.09mi
14010 Hollow Leaf Pl Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1670	$2,195	$1.31	12d	1	1.09mi
14409 Easy Goer St Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$1,800	$1.08	26d	1	1.11mi
14339 Easy Goer St Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.5	1701	$2,350	$1.38	24d	1	1.11mi
14442 Editors Note St Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.5	1701	$2,100	$1.23	7d	1	1.13mi
10405 Apollo Manor Cir Riverview, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1116	$3,163	$2.83	1d	30	1.24mi
10206 Stedfast Ct Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	2051	$2,650	$1.29	26d	1	1.30mi
11164 Golden Silence Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1930	$2,050	$1.06	26d	1	1.33mi
10454 Shady Preserve Dr Riverview, FL	2.0	3.0	1642	$2,000	$1.22	26d	1	1.36mi
10124 Newminster Loop Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1340	$2,150	$1.60	1d	1	1.40mi
10313 Celtic Ash Dr Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1394	$2,005	$1.44	18d	1	1.41mi
10805 Australian Pine Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1897	$2,350	$1.24	26d	1	1.42mi
13625 Silver Charm Ct Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	1907	$2,350	$1.23	26d	1	1.42mi
11025 Golden Silence Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1785	$2,210	$1.24	16d	1	1.45mi
11009 Golden Silence Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2154	$2,800	$1.30	26d	1	1.46mi
13465 Fladgate Mark Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1544	$2,045	$1.32	1d	1	1.47mi
13465 Fladgate Mark Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1544	$2,045	$1.32	7d	1	1.47mi
14268 Riva Ridge Pl Sun City Center, FL	3.0	2.5	1993	$2,197	$1.10	26d	1	1.49mi
10121 Tabasco Cat Ct Sun City Center, FL	3.0	2.5	1993	$2,095	$1.05	26d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $9 · $108/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $296,000 Pending 41 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $296,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-04-20
   listed $296,000 Active 430-char remark
4. 2026-03-10
   soldstatus $252,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,369 · $447/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,369 · $447/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,327
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,581
• − Property taxes: −$5,369
• − Insurance: −$1,480
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,426
• − Management: −$2,426
• − HOA: −$108
• − Depreciation: −$8,611
• Taxable loss: −$6,674
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,602
• After-tax cash flow: $-24/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Balm

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #742
• US rank: #16016

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Balm, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 196
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,820
• Household income: $97,520
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 149.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 39% Black 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.35%
• Current HPI: 271.8552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.50%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+17.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Listed $296,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $252,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,369 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.