861 Allison Gap Rd · Allison Gap, VA 24370

$39,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 806 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1947 3.90 ac lot $48/sqft · 5% below area Est $41k · 5% under ↓ 28% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Investor Special on 3.9 acres! Opportunity awaits with this 2 bedroom, 1 bath home situated on 3.9 acres. The home has been completely gutted and is ready for your vision, perfect for a full renovation or custom rebuild. Property features an outbuilding for storage or workshop space and a peaceful stream running behind the home through the land. With plenty of room to expand or enjoy nature, this is a great investment or project property. Being sold as-is. Shingled roof replaced 2 years ago.

Key facts

• 3.9 acres
• Peaceful stream
• 3.9 acre lot

Tags

• 3.9 ACRES
• OUTBUILDING FOR STORAGE
• PEACEFUL STREAM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Residential property in the Poor Valley subdivision
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Creek on the property; Irregular, wooded lot

Interior

• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Wood flooring; Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Laminate, wood and other flooring; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $39k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $449 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($961 rent vs $39k).
• Recommended offer: $38k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Smyth County Public School District (rural): math 46% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #89 of 131 in VA (top 68%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Saltville Elementary (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #597 of 1,108 statewide, top 57%, 195 students, 102% FRL); Northwood Middle (math 42% / reading 67%, grade B-, #194 of 342 statewide, top 60%, 151 students, 86% FRL); Northwood High (math 62% / reading 77%, grade B, #159 of 319 statewide, top 53%, 240 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 54% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Smyth County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $384 of equity ($270 loan paydown + $114 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Smyth County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,415 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.61%
• DSCR: 3.52
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $41,179
• List price: $39,000
• Delta: -5.29%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
164 Cardwell Town Rd	0.15mi	2/1.0 (-1)	720 (-11%)	2mo	$12,500	$17	69
412 Cardwell Town Rd	0.27mi	2/1.0 (-1)	800 (-1%)	16mo	$56,000	$70	68
220 Lick Skillet Rd	0.35mi	3/1.0	896 (+11%)	7mo	$49,000	$55	59
325 Lick Skillet Rd	0.42mi	2/1.0 (-1)	907 (+12%)	23mo	$31,500	$35	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.29% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.57×
• Total profit: $28,017
• Equity at exit: $11,898

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.14×
• Total profit: $67,091
• Equity at exit: $14,768

Cash invested: $10,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24370

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $961 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$205
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $276/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$202
• Net cashflow: $449

Break-even live

Break-even rent $393

Max offer price $39,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $471	-5% $460	+0% $449	+5% $438	+10% $427
Rent	-10% $373	-5% $411	+0% $449	+5% $487	+10% $525
Rate	-1.0pp $468	-0.5pp $459	base $449	+0.5pp $439	+1.0pp $428

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,750
• Closing costs: $1,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-29
   listed $39,000 Active 496-char remark
2. 2010-07-02
   soldstatus $54,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $276 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $320 · $27/mo
• Expected delta: +$44/yr (+$4/mo · 15.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥95°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,529
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,185
• − Property taxes: −$276
• − Insurance: −$992
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$922
• − Management: −$922
• − Depreciation: −$1,135
• Taxable income: $5,096
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,223
• After-tax cash flow: $4,162/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Smyth County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103520
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $36,901
• Composite: 45.2/100
• National rank: #2672
• State rank: #89 of 131 in VA

Livability — Allison Gap

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Allison Gap, VA
• Population (ZIP): 5,740

Population outlook (Smyth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,740 people
• By 2030: 28,593 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 26,091 · -12.3%
• By 2050: 23,629 · -20.5%
• By 2075: 18,365 · -38.2%
• By 2100: 13,697 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Smyth

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.4% · R 79.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.4pp toward R · 2008: -29.1pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.3 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+33.0 2008: R+29.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.29%
• Current HPI: 218.7537
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-28.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — SWVAR
• 2026-04-29 Listed $39,000 SWVAR
• 2010-07-02 Sold (Public Records) $54,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $276 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.